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Will the Trump Era Bring Higher Interest Rates? Don’t Count On It
Neil Irwin of NYT provides some counter intuitive ideas on U.S. Fed interest rate policy. He says it can't be take as a given that the Fed will raise rates in 2017-2018. This depends on how much punch there is in the Trump economic policies for stimulus, and for infrastructure spending, tax cuts. He cites Senate Majority Leader McConnell who said he would like to keep "tax reform revenue neutral." Getting large spending and pushing up the deficit is likely to run up against Republicans in Congress who have for 8 years opposed large spending increases and large deficits. Trump has given few details about his stimulus or infrastructure spending plans. He says the scale of the spending might not match the talk. Irwin cites JP Morgan Chase economists who have kept their forecasts for GDP growth just under 2% for 2017 and 2018. And he points out that even Trump appointees at the Fed might act independently. The Fed might look at being cautious considering that increased trade tensions with China, and the unpredictability of a Trump administration could hurt growth. Irwin does not mention the uncertainty in other areas such as policy towards Russia on which the Republican party and Congress have very different views than Trump, tensions over Taiwan, that can also affect growth.
Views on U.S. economic growth and Federal Reserve interest rate policy in 2017-2018
12/14/2016
Neil Irwin, Binyamin Applebaum of NYT, and others offer views on how Federal Reserve interest rate policy can come out in ways different from what is expected.
Grouped Articles
Will the Trump Era Bring Higher Interest Rates? Don’t Count On It
The New York Times 12/14/2016
A Trump Economic Boom? The Fed May Stand in the Way
The New York Times 12/13/2016
Will Trump herald a US economic boom?
The Guardian 12/07/2016
How Donald Trump May Actually Widen the U.S. Trade Deficit
WSJ 12/12/2016
Fed Raises Rates for First Time in 2016, Anticipates 3 Increases in 2017
WSJ 12/14/2016
The Fed’s Era of Easy Money Is Ending
The New York Times 03/13/2017
The U.S. Federal Reserve's policy difficulty in raising interest rates in 2015-2016
09/14/2015
The sharply slowing economy in China in September 2015 acts to put the Fed on another of a series of pause situations as it plans to raise rates. The Fed'd interest rate policy has shifted to raise rates vey gradually making the rate increases small and over an extended period of time, so that this does not affect the recovery. Very low inflation with the steep decline in commodity prices, especially oil, is making it easier for the Fed to make this pause.
Grouped Articles
Lesson for Fed: Higher Interest Rates Haven’t Been Sticking
Wall Street Journal 09/14/2015
Here’s a Way Yellen Can Raise Rates Without Spooking Markets
Wall Street Journal 09/14/2015
The Fed Gets a Last Data Point, and It Isn’t Good
Wall Street Journal 09/17/2015
Central Banks’ Lesson: Easy Money Alone Isn’t a Growth Salve
Wall Street Journal 09/18/2015
Watching the Fed, and Remembering the Tequila Crisis
New York Times 09/18/2015
Fed Leaves Interest Rates Unchanged
New York Times 09/17/2015
Length of U.S. economic expansions 1950-2015, and the forecast for the current expansion beginning in 2009
04/21/2014
Robert Hall, a Stanford economist who heads the NBER committee that studies industrial production, income, employment, retail sales, for turning points in the economy says the current economic expansion shows clear path ahead with increasing corporate earnings. Based on past experience adverse unpredictable shocks happen that end the expansion. Because of how slow this expansion is taking place and Yellen's sense of slack in the economy providing room for employment and incomes to grow, the current expansion has still a lot of life left in it. The Fed forecast is for 90 months into 2016, and the CBO forecast is for 102 months into 2017. Some of the growth in incomes and employment takes place in the late stage as happened in the Reagan expansion in the 1982-90 period.
Grouped Articles
Sluggish Economic Recovery Proves Resilient
Wall Street Journal 04/21/2014
'Secular Stagnation' May Be for Real
Wall Street Journal 08/27/2014
Hillary Got It Right About Growth
Wall Street Journal 06/18/2015
The New York Times 09/16/2016
The Economy’s Hidden Problem: We’re Out of Big Ideas
WSJ 12/06/2016
A Trump Economic Boom? The Fed May Stand in the Way
The New York Times 12/13/2016
The drop in U.S. productivity from 2.9% for 1995 to 2005 to 1.3% since 2005, and 0.3% since 2010
05/15/2015
Alan Blinder, former vice chairman of the Fed discusses the alarming drop in productivity growth in the U.S. and what this means for maintaining living standards and growth in incomes. Britain is experiencing a lack of growth in productivity leading to declining real wages. China and other emerging markets are also experiencing weak productivity growth.
Grouped Articles
The Mystery of Declining Productivity Growth
Wall Street Journal 05/15/2015
New York Times 05/25/2015
Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan Can’t Agree Why the Economy’s Productivity Has Slumped
Wall Street Journal 06/16/2015
Washington Post 10/23/2015
A Trump Economic Boom? The Fed May Stand in the Way
The New York Times 12/13/2016
Will the Trump Era Bring Higher Interest Rates? Don’t Count On It
The New York Times 12/14/2016
Long term negative effects of Trump's economic plan for the U.S. in contrast to positive long term effects of the Clinton plan
10/18/2016
With huge borrowing and estimated at $5.3 trillion deficit Trump's economic plan has negative long term effects. It is also vague and absent many necessary details. The Clinton economic plan has positive long term effects, is careful with the deficit, and spells out the specifics. Clinton's economic plan helps to reduce wide wealth disparities pointed out by Fed chairman Janet Yellen, and increases societal integration of less advantaged groups. While the Trump Plan aggravates social tensions by increasing the share of the national income going to the wealthy at a time when unprecedented wealth disparities exist in American society.
Grouped Articles
Donald Trump’s Tax Plan Would Boost Economy in Short Run but Not Long Term, Analysis Finds
WSJ 10/17/2016
Donald Trump’s Economic Plan, Up Close, Doesn’t Add Up
WSJ 10/18/2016
Taxes Under Trump: Almost Everyone Pays Less and the Richest Pay a Lot Less
WSJ 12/02/2016
The Economy’s Hidden Problem: We’re Out of Big Ideas
WSJ 12/06/2016
Will the Trump Era Bring Higher Interest Rates? Don’t Count On It
The New York Times 12/14/2016
Aging Population, Stagnant Productivity Challenge Donald Trump’s Growth Plan
WSJ 12/04/2016
Why high unemployment and the high percentage of the long term unemployed is determining U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate policy in 2012-2014
01/27/2009
With 40% of the unemployed in the U.S. shown as long term unemployed, mismatch in skills and other structural problems with unemployment, the U.S. Federal Reserve policies of Fed chairman Bernanke are geared to addressing this problem.
Grouped Articles
Stimulus and the Depression: The Untold Story
Wall Street Journal 09/26/2011
Fed Officials Try to Set the Market at Ease
Wall Street Journal 06/24/2013
Wall Street Journal 07/11/2013
FX HORIZONS: The Fed’s Risky Codependency with Markets
Wall Street Journal 07/11/2013
Bernanke Plays Down Link Between Jobless Rate, Fed Moves
Wall Street Journal 07/18/2013
Economy May Be Getting Its Wings Clipped
Wall Street Journal 07/30/2013
The expectations for inflation in 2014-2016 and U.S. Federal Reserve chairwoman Yellen's response
05/12/2014
Bernanke pointed to low inflation below the Fed's 2% target during the period of quantitative easing policies in 2010-2013. Higher prices of medical care, housing and import prices are expected in the rest of 2014. Analysts say this will taper off and inflation expectations are still much below 2% for 2014, especially as large number of part time workers keeps wage growth at a low level, and is likely to do so for a considerable period probably into 2015. Higher energy and food costs are not included in the core index for inflation the Fed looks at.
Grouped Articles
Markets Watch, Warily, for a Small Bump in Inflation
Wall Street Journal 05/12/2014
Fed Panel Has Begun to Address How to Gradually Raise Rates
New York Times 05/21/2014
WSJ's Hilsenrath: Fed Can Be Patient on Rate-Hike Debate After Data
Wall Street Journal 08/02/2014
Fed Minutes Show Wariness Over Global Growth
Wall Street Journal 10/08/2014
Risk of Deflation Feeds Global Fears
Wall Street Journal 10/16/2014
New York Times 10/16/2014
Expert opinion on Federal Reserve policy in 2011-2013
08/12/2010
The Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee voted in August 2011 to keep exceptionally low rates till 2013, with three fed governors dissenting. The high market volatility in August 2011 and the Fed's decision to let the government and Congress shoulder more of the responsibility for the economy. The limited capabilities of the Fed after QE II.
Grouped Articles
Martin Feldstein: The Federal Reserve's Policy Dead End
Wall Street Journal 05/09/2013
How QE 2 Could Drift Off Course
Wall Street Journal 08/12/2010
Yellen Says Restraining the Fed’s Oversight Would Be a ‘Grave Mistake’
New York Times 07/16/2014
Fed to Markets: Fly Solo, for Now
Wall Street Journal 08/10/2011
Wall Street Journal 08/26/2011
Wall Street Journal 08/31/2011
U.S. Fed Governor Jeremy Stein on controlling a bubble economy in 2014-2015
09/10/2014
Grouped Articles
Recognizing Bubbles But Still Cautious About Deflating Them
New York Times 09/10/2014
Will the Trump Era Bring Higher Interest Rates? Don’t Count On It
The New York Times 12/14/2016
The caution in raising rates of the U.S. Federal Reserve in 2015 and memories of the emerging market crisis in 1997
09/17/2015
In 1997 Federal Reserve rate increases worsened the situation in the fragile Mexican economy, with Mexico needing a large bank bailout. Contagion to other countries was also a large problem at the time. Harvard economists Kenneth Rogoff and Larry Summers, cite the situation facing emerging markets with the sharp fall in commodity prices and the decline in the value of the currencies, particularly Brazil, Indonesia and Russia, countries dependent on commodity exports, creating risks in the global economy that the Fed could not ignore. The debt crisis in China and slowing economy, with missteps by the government in handling the stock market decline, happened in August-September 2015, creating added uncertainty- making Sept 15, 2015, too soon for the Fed to risk even a modest 0.25% increase in rates.
Grouped Articles
Watching the Fed, and Remembering the Tequila Crisis
New York Times 09/18/2015
Fed Leaves Interest Rates Unchanged
New York Times 09/17/2015
Gloom on Brazil Finances Deepens
Wall Street Journal 12/17/2015
Why China’s Market Fell So Much
Wall Street Journal 01/05/2016
Why China’s Market Illness Has Gotten More Contagious
Wall Street Journal 01/12/2016
A January Pause, but Fed Affirms Plan for Gradual Rate Increases
New York Times 01/27/2016
Low interest rates and Fed policy in 2010-2012
10/02/2010
Grouped Articles
New York Times 10/16/2014
Enough With the Low Interest Rates!
Wall Street Journal 10/02/2010
Wall Street Journal 10/25/2010
Wall Street Journal 10/26/2010
Opinions Are Split on Fed Policy Move
Wall Street Journal 11/01/2010
Ben S. Bernanke - What the Fed did and why: supporting the recovery and sustaining price stability
Washington Post 11/04/2010
How low interest rates and Fed policies are hurting U.S. retirees, the elderly and savers
05/27/2010
Grouped Articles
Chuck Schwab Is Worried About Small Investors. Should We Worry Too?
BusinessWeek 05/27/2010
Fed's Low Interest Rates Crack Retirees' Nest Eggs
Wall Street Journal 04/04/2011
Workers Saving Too Little to Retire
Wall Street Journal 03/19/2013
Wall Street Journal 06/15/2011
Will the Trump Era Bring Higher Interest Rates? Don’t Count On It
The New York Times 12/14/2016
U.S. Federal Reserve chairwoman Janet Yellen's thinking on unemployment and expected Fed policy in 2014-2015
01/23/2014
Grouped Articles
Don’t Expect Job Data Alone to Persuade Fed on Rates
New York Times 01/23/2014
A Fed Policy Maker, Changing His Mind, Urges More Stimulus
New York Times 01/27/2014
Confronting Old Problem May Require a New Deal
New York Times 01/28/2014
More Men in Prime Working Ages Don't Have Jobs
Wall Street Journal 02/06/2014
Wall Street Journal 02/08/2014
Fed's Yellen Sets Course for Steady Bond-Buy Cuts
Wall Street Journal 02/12/2014
Voices of caution about the economic recovery in the U.S. as underlying problems remain.
04/20/2008
Underlying problems in foreclosure rates, job losses, and toxic assets at banks remain unresolved, even as the stimulus spending plans and the Fed's putting money into the economy fast have helped restore some degree of confidence.
Grouped Articles
New York Times 10/10/2010
The Wage That Meant Middle Class
New York Times 04/20/2008
A Trap in Obama’s Spending Plan
New York Times 12/21/2008
In Japan’s Stagnant Decade, Cautionary Tales for America
New York Times 02/13/2009
New York Times 02/13/2009
New York Times 03/06/2009
How U.S. economic growth and interest rates can play out in ways contrary to what is expected for 2017-2019
12/14/2016
Linked Articles
Will the Trump Era Bring Higher Interest Rates? Don’t Count On It
The New York Times 12/14/2016
A Trump Economic Boom? The Fed May Stand in the Way
The New York Times 12/13/2016
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