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The sharply slowing economy in China in September 2015 acts to put the Fed on another of a series of pause situations as it plans to raise rates. The Fed'd interest rate policy has shifted to raise rates vey gradually making the rate increases small and over an extended period of time, so that this does not affect the recovery. Very low inflation with the steep decline in commodity prices, especially oil, is making it easier for the Fed to make this pause.
Grouped Articles
Lesson for Fed: Higher Interest Rates Haven’t Been Sticking
Wall Street Journal 09/14/2015
Here’s a Way Yellen Can Raise Rates Without Spooking Markets
Wall Street Journal 09/14/2015
The Fed Gets a Last Data Point, and It Isn’t Good
Wall Street Journal 09/17/2015
Central Banks’ Lesson: Easy Money Alone Isn’t a Growth Salve
Wall Street Journal 09/18/2015
Watching the Fed, and Remembering the Tequila Crisis
New York Times 09/18/2015
Fed Leaves Interest Rates Unchanged
New York Times 09/17/2015
In 1997 Federal Reserve rate increases worsened the situation in the fragile Mexican economy, with Mexico needing a large bank bailout. Contagion to other countries was also a large problem at the time. Harvard economists Kenneth Rogoff and Larry Summers, cite the situation facing emerging markets with the sharp fall in commodity prices and the decline in the value of the currencies, particularly Brazil, Indonesia and Russia, countries dependent on commodity exports, creating risks in the global economy that the Fed could not ignore. The debt crisis in China and slowing economy, with missteps by the government in handling the stock market decline, happened in August-September 2015, creating added uncertainty- making Sept 15, 2015, too soon for the Fed to risk even a modest 0.25% increase in rates.
Grouped Articles
Watching the Fed, and Remembering the Tequila Crisis
New York Times 09/18/2015
Fed Leaves Interest Rates Unchanged
New York Times 09/17/2015
Gloom on Brazil Finances Deepens
Wall Street Journal 12/17/2015
Why China’s Market Fell So Much
Wall Street Journal 01/05/2016
Why China’s Market Illness Has Gotten More Contagious
Wall Street Journal 01/12/2016
A January Pause, but Fed Affirms Plan for Gradual Rate Increases
New York Times 01/27/2016
Grouped Articles
Fed's Yellen Sets Course for Steady Bond-Buy Cuts
Wall Street Journal 02/12/2014
Fed Puts Rate Increase on the Radar
Wall Street Journal 02/20/2014
Yellen Sticks to Plan Amid Weather Doubts
Wall Street Journal 02/28/2014
Wall Street Journal 03/20/2014
Fed Cuts Bond Buying by Another $10 Billion
New York Times 03/19/2014
Federal Reserve’s Bond-Buying Fades, but Stimulus Doesn’t End There
New York Times 06/19/2014
Grouped Articles
No time for an interest rate hike - The Washington Post
Washington Post 08/24/2015
Lesson for Fed: Higher Interest Rates Haven’t Been Sticking
Wall Street Journal 09/14/2015
Here’s a Way Yellen Can Raise Rates Without Spooking Markets
Wall Street Journal 09/14/2015
Central Banks’ Lesson: Easy Money Alone Isn’t a Growth Salve
Wall Street Journal 09/18/2015
Fed Delays Interest-Rate Liftoff
Wall Street Journal 09/18/2015
Watching the Fed, and Remembering the Tequila Crisis
New York Times 09/18/2015
Bernanke pointed to low inflation below the Fed's 2% target during the period of quantitative easing policies in 2010-2013. Higher prices of medical care, housing and import prices are expected in the rest of 2014. Analysts say this will taper off and inflation expectations are still much below 2% for 2014, especially as large number of part time workers keeps wage growth at a low level, and is likely to do so for a considerable period probably into 2015. Higher energy and food costs are not included in the core index for inflation the Fed looks at.
Grouped Articles
Markets Watch, Warily, for a Small Bump in Inflation
Wall Street Journal 05/12/2014
Fed Panel Has Begun to Address How to Gradually Raise Rates
New York Times 05/21/2014
WSJ's Hilsenrath: Fed Can Be Patient on Rate-Hike Debate After Data
Wall Street Journal 08/02/2014
Fed Minutes Show Wariness Over Global Growth
Wall Street Journal 10/08/2014
Risk of Deflation Feeds Global Fears
Wall Street Journal 10/16/2014
New York Times 10/16/2014
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