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The caution in raising rates of the U.S. Federal Reserve in 2015 and memories of the emerging market crisis in 1997
09/17/2015
In 1997 Federal Reserve rate increases worsened the situation in the fragile Mexican economy, with Mexico needing a large bank bailout. Contagion to other countries was also a large problem at the time. Harvard economists Kenneth Rogoff and Larry Summers, cite the situation facing emerging markets with the sharp fall in commodity prices and the decline in the value of the currencies, particularly Brazil, Indonesia and Russia, countries dependent on commodity exports, creating risks in the global economy that the Fed could not ignore. The debt crisis in China and slowing economy, with missteps by the government in handling the stock market decline, happened in August-September 2015, creating added uncertainty- making Sept 15, 2015, too soon for the Fed to risk even a modest 0.25% increase in rates.
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Gloom on Brazil Finances Deepens
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Why China’s Market Fell So Much
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Why China’s Market Illness Has Gotten More Contagious
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A January Pause, but Fed Affirms Plan for Gradual Rate Increases
New York Times 01.27.2016
China facing full-blown banking crisis, world's top financial watchdog warns
The Telegraph 09.19.2016
Will Trump herald a US economic boom?
The Guardian 12.07.2016
A Trump Economic Boom? The Fed May Stand in the Way
The New York Times 12.13.2016
Will the Trump Era Bring Higher Interest Rates? Don’t Count On It
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