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Why the Russian Economy Is Tumbling
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Lee describes the problems the Russian economy faces with the depletion of the Reserve Fund following collapse of oil prices. Finance minister Siluanov says the Reserve Fund could run out by 2017. The National Wealth Fund hols $73 billion and is used for infrastructure projects and bank bailouts, and pensions. The defense budget is expected to decline by 5% in 2016 as the military buildup slows from a slower economy. The World Bank predicts a poverty rate of 14.2%. The 50% decline in the ruble has hurt imports. The lack of access to international capital markets has also hurt growth, even though Russia has only small debt.
The Russian economy in 2016 following the collapse in oil prices
04/12/2016
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Why the Russian Economy Is Tumbling
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This account of life in the Kaluga region, a provincial city 110 miles south of Moscow, shows how Russia is coping with the 50% drop in the value of the ruble and the drop in oil prices below $50. Anatoly Karmanov, the able and energetic Russian who once ran a collective in the Brezhnev era, says its stupidity to have to hide that he talks to business people in other parts of the world to attract investment. VW plans to continue investment in the country, Continental AG is continuing production based on replacement demand for tires. The auto industry which provides about half of the output in Kaluga is hit hard, with the Association of European Business estimate of about 39% drop in production in Feb. 2015 compared to Feb. 2014. Only about 40% of production cost is from local parts at assembly factories, the rest is imported parts at the new ruble exchange rate, leading to a jump in prices and slumping demand.
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The impact of the declining ruble on the Russian economy by December 2014
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The ruble declines to 52 to the dollar by Dec. 2014, losing about 40% of its value in 2014. Oil prices decline to about $67 for Brent crude by Dec. 2014 accelerating the fall in the ruble.
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The Reserve Fund, Russia's sovereign wealth fund, is now down to $26 billion. This would only cover about half of the 2011 budget deficit. The need for foreign investment to pursue economic growth, meet development needs, and for oil exploration in the Arctic.
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Brazil raises interest rates to over 13%, as it faces critical needs of private companies financing dollar based debt. This is likely to lead to further economic contraction and higher inflation. Inflation is at over 8% in 2015. Russia lowered the high interest rates ratcheted up to 17% to tackle a ruble collapse in 2015. Interest rates were lowered to but this move also aggravates inflation which is now at close to 17%.
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The Russian ruble goes from a low of 80 to the dollar in Dec. 2014 to 50 to the dollar by May 2015. The euro also strengthens against the dollar with weakening economic conditions in the U.S. reversing the strength of the dollar.
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Elvira Nabiullina- head of Russia's central bank and the careful management of the economy during the collapse of oil prices- 2014-2016
04/12/2016
The careful management by Nabiullina has enabled Russia to avoid the worst effects of a collapse in oil prices. Experts say what Russia needs even more than a recovery in oil prices is the improvement in business conditions after interest rates of as high as 17% are bringing inflation closer to the target of 4%. Russia's rainy day fund of $500 billion in sovereign wealth fund, the devaluation of the rouble, help to the banking system to recapitalize, Russia's vastly expanded pension funds as a source of capital, and assistance to poorer sections of society, have enable Russia to cope with the collapse in oil prices. Yet much more needs to happen for a diversified economy and better relations with European Union to increase foreign investment and improve business climate.
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For the Kremlin, winning a supermajority in the Russian parliament was the easy part
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Winners and losers in emerging markets in 2015 with lower oil prices- Turkey and India are winners, China a beneficiary, Russia, Venezuela and Brazil are losers
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The economic prospects of emerging market countries have changed significantly since 2013. In Turkey political problems and a high current account deficit led to a slump in the lira and high interest rate policies by early 2014. In India the Congress party government let the economy drift in 2013 with no action taken. The newly elected Modi adminstration in 2014 and now lower oil prices are giving a major boost to economic growth in India. China with huge oil imports is also a beneficiary as it tackles problems from the boom years and growth slows to below 7%.
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Grouped Articles
Putin Pledges Stimulus for Russian Economy
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Russia Looks to Borrow to Plug Funding Gap
Wall Street Journal 09/19/2013
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Wall Street Journal 01/30/2014
Wall Street Journal 03/05/2012
Competing Visions for Russia’s Economic Future
New York Times 05/22/2014
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