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Competing Visions for Russia’s Economic Future
Keywords:
A major shift in foreign investment may be taking place as the 2014 St. Petersburg International Economic Forum takes place in May 2014. Russian policy in Ukraine and tensions with the U.S. and Germany could lead to a shift in investment to other emerging market countries. China's tensions with Japan could lead to a similiar shift of Japanese foreign investment. At the same time India has elected a new government with an absolute majority and an overwhelming mandate from young people to accelerate development. The new government under the BJP party's Modi has a decade of experience attracting foreign investment in western India. Indonesia, Vietnam, Africa and other emerging market countries, could benefit from the shift in investment. Investment could also return to the home countries with lower labor costs in Southern Europe, lower labor/energy/transport costs in North America. For Russia the debate at the St Petersburg Economic Forum was about pursuing one of three policy paths with some riskier than others, or some combination also risky and uncertain- depending on state banks and oil windfall funds, increasing ties with Asian countries, continuing on the current path with lower foreign investment and continued capital outflows. The failure to use the time wisely to diversify the oil based economy which could have been better accomplished in an economy not overly dependent on crony capitalism and centralized economy, both current characteristics, will affect future progress. A key weakness for Russia compared to China is the centralization under one person Putin, more so in the third term. In China the two man team Keqiang and Jinping is part of a larger team chosen by consensus and negotiation and part of a rotational scheme. It has senior leaders who initiated the changes to a market driven economy in the nineties determined to see China on track.
The 2014 St. Petersburg International Economic Forum
05/22/2014
After the Russian takeover of Crimea and increase in tensions on the border with Ukraine the mood at the 2014 St. Petersburg Economic Forum is different. Many western companies stayed away. Of German companies Metro, a German retailer, was the prominent one present and that too because of its 22,000 Russian employees, said its CEO. Former British cabinet minister Mandelson, described the situation as Putin's "self-inflicted wound." The Russian economy now faces three choices, each difficult and risky- to move closer to Asia, to depend on its own state banks and finances for development, or to continue attracting foreign investment even with western sanctions. Growth is slowing to 0.2% for 2014. At the same time Indian elections have led to a absolute majority for a foreign investment friendly government with experience in attracting foreign investment in western India. Foreign investment could shift in coming years from China, Russia, Turkey to India, Indonesia, Vietnam, Africa, and other investment friendly countries. In that situation China's tensions with Japan and Russia's tensions with U.S. and Europe may become counterproductive policies. Some foreign investment may even return to home regions with the yen's new level in Japan and lower energy/labor/transport costs in North America, and lower labor costs in Southern Europe.
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