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Oil Falls Most Since 2015 on Fears of Oversupply

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Oil prices in the U.S. drop to $55 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and $65 a barrel for Brent crude price. Earlier expectation of the impact of reimposed sanctions on Iranian oil shrinking global oil supplies have been reversed with increased production from Saudi Arabia, Russia and the U.S.

Another new development that caused this reversal in sentiment is that the Trump administration granted waivers to some buyers of Iranian crude oil. The U.S. trade dispute with China has also added to this with lower growth forecasts. Unlike in previous years OPEC or Saudi Arabia cannot by itself shrink global supplies with production cuts. The U.S. and Russian output also plays a significant part.


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Gasoline prices for some grades of gasoline sold in Saudi gas stations will increase by 50% as the Saudi Finance Ministry copes with dropping oil revenues. The 2016 budget shows adeficit of $87 billion compared to $98 billion in 2015. At this rate Saudi Arabia would exhaust its foreign exchange reserves of $640 billion by 2020. Saudi Arabia has a rapidly growing population which will increase budget pressures and local oil demand. Its defense spending to counter Iran and Russia in the Syria-Iraq conflict and in Yemen also affect spending. Lower oil prices are partly a result of the geopolitical conflict in the region and rivalry betweeen Iran backed by Russia and Sunnis led by the Saudi and Emirates, as well as technology in shale oil production. This comes at a good time for China as it slows, India as it increases its growth rate, and the U.S. and Eurozone as their economies recover from a deep recession, Japan as it improves its economy from low or no growth. For Russia it is seen as away to shift away from imports to domestic industry. For the Saudis an opportuntiy to cut subsidies and improve the productivity of spending.

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