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Global Oil Glut Sends Prices Plunging
Keywords:
Major decline in oil prices in Oct. 2014 as prices drop to $81 per barrel and are forecast to reach $70. U.S. oil production increased by about 56% or 3.1 million barrels a day since 2004. U.S. demand for gas and fuel declined 8% compared to 2004. Initially instability and wars in the Middle East sustained high oil prices in 2012-2013. Yet with growing output from shale and other sources in N. America and slowing economies of Europe and China, the situation reached a point in 2014 where supply exceeds demand. This shift more than offsets any instability in trouble spots. The situation affects the U.S. consumer favorably with an estimate of $1 billion in savings for American consumers with every one cent drop in price at the gas pump, by one estimate from Deutsche Bank analysts. Typical American families gained an extra $50 a month from the decline June to October 2014, according to analysts at Gasbuddy.com. The declines are a boost for the slowing economies of Europe, Japan, China, S, Korea and India. China's imports for 2015 are estimated at 61% of oil consumption, using official estimates. In the current slowdown the lower prices offer relief. India which imports 75% of its energy benefits signficantly, as this helps lower inflation and reduces cost of fuel subsidies for state run companies. Russia is adversely affected by the declines as it depends on oil and gas exports for 50% of the nation's budget. Estimates by AFK Sistema economists show the Russian economy contracting in 2015 with oil at near $90 per barrel (Brent crude is at about $85, and WTI at $81 in early Oct. 2014). Russia's former Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin reflects opinion among Russian executives and politicians, when he told state television that Saudi Arabia may be pushing prices lower to target Russia's oil resource based economy and Mr. Putin, in an effort to broaden the effect of sanctions. (The Saudis have strongly protested the Putin intervention in Syria.) Venezuela has used $120 per barrel and Angola $98 for its budget, leading to a strong hit for the economy.
Alexei Kudrin and other experts see the potential for a deep political and economic crisis in Russia 2011-2015
01/25/2008
Fears expressed by Kudrin and other experts at a Moscow conference about the impact of a recession in the eurozone and Greece's exit from the euro. Kudrin was a key figure in Russia anticipating and setting aside reserves in the sovereign fund to meet the adverse effects of the 2008 global financial crisis. The views expressed were that Russia's economy is shaky and could be seriously affected if European banks reduce their loans. Earlier he strongly opposed increases in military spending in a disagreement with prime minister Medvedev because of concerns about financial stability.
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Finance Minister Will Quit Russian Government
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Putin Pledges Stimulus for Russian Economy
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The pressure on the Russian ruble in 2014-2015
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Weak economic conditions, capital outflows and demand from the corporate sector to repay debt, add to the pressures on the ruble in 2014.
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Russian Companies Clamor for Dollars to Repay Debt
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Russia's Tech sector and efforts to forge a future away from dependence on oil.
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Russian investment in its tech sector to develop an economy that is resilient in the face of commodity price swings.
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Putin Pledges Stimulus for Russian Economy
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Global Oil Glut Sends Prices Plunging
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Russia's Tech Startup Scene Retreats Amid Ukraine Conflict
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Overheard: Ruble in the Rubble
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Russia’s turn to China: A gap between rhetoric and reality - The Washington Post
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India's oil and natural gas imports 2010-2015
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Growing imports of oil and natural gas in India in 2012-2013. Disappointing production of oil and natural gas from the Reliance offshore exploration in the Krishna-Godavari Basin. The need for increased exploration and a change in government policy. This comes at a time when India faces severe shortages of energy supplies including coal for electricity and power development.
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Rupee Recovers From Tuesday's Record Low
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IDFC Chief Says Power is 'the Next Telecom'
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Grouped Articles
Middle East Oil Fuels Fresh China-U.S. Tensions
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Lower prices for Canada's shale oil and Canada's economy, the impact in 2013-2016
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The significant impact on the Canadian economy and on Alberta of the lower prices for Canada's shale oil. Discounts for Canada's shale oil relative to Brent crude benchmark international oil pricesand U.S. benchmark price range from 20 to 50%. Canada's shale oil was Dat $80 per barrel in April 2013, compared to $94 for U.S. benchmark price and $106 for Brent international crude oil price. This has reduced GDP in Canada for 2012 by 0.4% for the second half of 2012, according to Canada's central bank. GDP growth is sluggish at 1.8% for 2012. The impact in lower government tax and royalty revenues is significant for Alberta.
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Trade and Oil on Agenda as Obama Visits Canada
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The oil boom in the U.S. state of N. Dakota 2010-2014
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Russia's finance minister, Alexei Kudrin, and Russia's finances
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Kudrin on higher military spending of 3% of Russia's GDP, exceeding the amount spent on education. He sees this as endangering Russia's finances. Kudrin's focus on building the Russian Stabilization Fund helped Russia weather the 2008 global financial crisis. He is one of the St Petersburg officials who helped bring Putin to the Presidency. A slowing economy and a decline in oil prices would have an impact on the Russian economy. Analysts say Russia needs an oil price of $120 to support the current level of spending.
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The Reserve Fund, Russia's sovereign wealth fund, is now down to $26 billion. This would only cover about half of the 2011 budget deficit. The need for foreign investment to pursue economic growth, meet development needs, and for oil exploration in the Arctic.
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Reserves drop from $600 billion to $385 billion as Russia uses its reserves to support the ruble in 2009. Memories of the poverty and humiliation suffered as the ruble collapsed in 1997 remained uppermost in the minds of Russians.
Grouped Articles
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Raising Stakes on Russia, U.S. Adds Sanctions
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Russian Companies Clamor for Dollars to Repay Debt
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Putin and Russia's shift in Ukraine policy with the impact of capital flight, western sanctions and a sharp slowdown in the economy by July 2014
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Polls show 66% of the Russian public opposes Russian forces going into Ukrainian territory. The rhetoric on Russian television has been toned down and Russian analysts say intervention in Ukraine would have dangerous consequences for Russia, that Russia needs to maintain its relations with the West. At the same time Putin will attend a summit of BRIC's leaders in Fortaleza, Brazil, with plans to set up a development bank, as the focus shifts back to the economy. Russia is expected to feel the impact of $75 billion in capital flight in the first half of 2014.
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Investment in oil and gas exploration by India of $16 billion is about half the amount invested by Brazil in the same 15 year period. The move in 2013 bringing state mandated natural gas prices closer to world prices is an effort to increase India's investment in the energy field.
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Global Oil Glut Sends Prices Plunging
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India's surging oil imports with a depreciating rupee in 2011-2015
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Rupee Throws Oil on India's Subsidy Problem
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India Grapples With Soaring Energy Costs
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U.S. Presses India On Iran Oil Buys
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India Takes New Steps to Boost Sagging Rupee
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Grinding Energy Shortage Takes Toll on India's Growth
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ExxonMobil's projects in Russia's east coast and Arctic seas following the Ukraine crisis and western sanctions
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ExxonMobil's partnership with Russia to explore for oil is not likely to be affected by the crisis in U.S.- Russian relations over Ukraine, according to Rex Tillerson, CEO of Exxon. Exxon needs to reverse declining production and Russia needs the foreign investment in oil exploration. Tillerson established the early links with Russia for oil exploration projects.
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Exxon Says Russian Projects Remain on Track
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Wall Street Journal 03/26/2014
Pride, Prejudice and Putin's Predation
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Potential Crackdown on Russia Risks Also Punishing Western Oil Companies
New York Times 03/27/2014
Crimea Crisis Has Little Impact Thus Far on Russian Oil Deals
New York Times 03/28/2014
Competing Visions for Russia’s Economic Future
New York Times 05/22/2014
Harold Hamm and the U.S. Bakken oil and natural gas fields in North Dakota and Montana
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Huge reserves in oil and natural gas that could make the U.S. energy sufficient in a decade. The prospect of royalties for drilling on federal lands that could reduce the deficit.
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U.S. Seeks New Rules for Rail Transport of Fuel
Wall Street Journal 07/24/2014
Global Oil Glut Sends Prices Plunging
Wall Street Journal 10/15/2014
How North Dakota Became Saudi Arabia
Wall Street Journal 10/01/2011
Wall Street Journal 11/02/2011
New York Times 11/06/2011
Wall Street Journal 12/12/2011
Shale oil and U.S. /North American oil supplies
06/16/2011
Grouped Articles
How North Dakota Became Saudi Arabia
Wall Street Journal 10/01/2011
Global Oil Glut Sends Prices Plunging
Wall Street Journal 10/15/2014
The Oil Price Swoon Won’t Stop the Shale Boom
Wall Street Journal 10/23/2014
Wall Street Journal 01/06/2015
The new economics of oil: Sheikhs v shale
Economist 01/13/2015
Back to the Future? Oil Replays 1980s Bust
Wall Street Journal 01/14/2015
The U.S. oil industry- higher industy profits and aggressive oil exploration efforts 2010-2014
07/05/2006
Grouped Articles
Senators Pass Mexico Oil Plan as Snag Arises
Wall Street Journal 12/12/2013
Global Oil Glut Sends Prices Plunging
Wall Street Journal 10/15/2014
Exxon and Shell Report Strong 2nd-Quarter Profits
New York Times 07/28/2011
Oil Rigs Stage Exodus From Gulf of Mexico
Wall Street Journal 07/05/2006
Oil Majors Rediscover Their Exploring Mojo
Wall Street Journal 11/10/2011
Oil Firms Face Services Hurdle
Wall Street Journal 12/23/2011
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