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A Windfall for China as Commodity Prices Plunge
Keywords:
Tags: Current Focus, Oil & Gas, China,
As its economy slows and facing high debt levels, China benefits by an estimated $18 billion a month from lower oil prices in 2015. The estimate is from Starfort Holdings, investment and private equity group. The estimates as China benefits from lower prices of all commodities, including oil, are of about $250 billion annually as China replenishes its stocks of commodities. With $12 million barrels imported daily China is a major emerging market beneficiary, along with India, of the drop in oil prices. Continuing pressure on prices from the expected resilience in shale oil production in the U.S. with learning and the development of new production methods means the benefits are likely to continue. China has also not renegotiated price points in deals made earlier at higher prices with China and Venezuela, as it pursues its foreign interests. Stockpiling of grains and edible oils are being increased by 33% in 2015 by $24.7 billion.
The boost to the slowing Chinese economy from lower oil prices in 2015
03/16/2015
The lower oil prices provides a estimated boost to the Chinese economy of about $600 million a day, $18 billion a month, at a time when it is slowing and faces high debt levels.
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Efforts in 2011-2012 to build China's strategic petroleum reserve from the existing 100 million barrels- or about 12 days supply- to a much larger reserve, will have an impact on world oil prices. This may push prices to triple digits in 2011-2012, say analysts.
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Winners and losers in emerging markets in 2015 with lower oil prices- Turkey and India are winners, China a beneficiary, Russia, Venezuela and Brazil are losers
01/18/2015
The economic prospects of emerging market countries have changed significantly since 2013. In Turkey political problems and a high current account deficit led to a slump in the lira and high interest rate policies by early 2014. In India the Congress party government let the economy drift in 2013 with no action taken. The newly elected Modi adminstration in 2014 and now lower oil prices are giving a major boost to economic growth in India. China with huge oil imports is also a beneficiary as it tackles problems from the boom years and growth slows to below 7%.
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An unambiguous positive effect on the global economy of the 2014-2015 decline in oil prices
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The positive effect on the U.S. measured in percentage of GDP of savings from oil import bills- 0.5%. For Germany 0.8%, Japan 1.2%, China 0.8%, India 1.8%, South Korea 2.4%. A much needed boost for Japan, India, China, and the eurozone at a critical time of flagging economic growth.
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The smaller impact on oil prices of a slowdown in China as demand from transportation of about 50% of total demand will continue to grow
03/15/2014
The increasing number of cars on China's roads means demand for oil will continue to grow even as the rest of the economy slows down.
Grouped Articles
Oil Stays Thick in China Downturn
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A Windfall for China as Commodity Prices Plunge
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China’s Car Slump Leaves Foreign Auto Makers With Idle Factories
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