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Learning the lessons of stagnation

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Latin American exports still dependent on commodities in 2010-2015

09/11/2010

Soyabeans from Brazil and Argentina, iron ore from Brazil, copper from Chile, coffee from Columbia, and oil from Ecuador and Venezuela- Latin American exports remain tied to commodities in 2010, especially with the surge in China's growth. The situation remains unchanged from prior decades.

Grouped Articles

In South America, a Mine of Riches and an Economic Sinkhole

New York Times 09/11/2010

The Two Latin Americas

Wall Street Journal 01/06/2014

Commodity prices drop on economic woes in Europe, China, U.S. - The Washington Post

Washington Post 06/11/2012

A South America Stalwart, Chile, Tries New Revival Tactic

Wall Street Journal 03/12/2014

China Slowdown Is Rocking Raw Materials

Wall Street Journal 03/12/2014

China’s Slowdown Hits Price of Iron Ore

Wall Street Journal 12/01/2014

The Economist on the Brazilian economy's perilous situation in 2015-2016

04/05/2015

Dollar debts for Brazil went up from $100 billion in 2010 to $250 billion in 2015, according to BIS data. Even more in local currency terms which went up from 210 billion reais to 650 billion reais. BNDES and Caixa Economic Federal, 2 state owned banks made up 35% of bank loans in Brazil in 2009, by 2015 this went up to 55%, making Brazil's banking system a fiscal operation overly dependent on the state. With rates as high as 16%, the state banks provide subsidized loans to firms at 5.5%. Monetary policy is difficult for the central bank as increasing rates to shore up the declining real would hurt the economy, which is expected to contract by 1.5% by official estimates, but higher according to other private estimates. The declining real, drought affecting hydroelectric generated power prices, and lower export revenues, in addition to high debt interest payments exceeding 6% of GDP, are leading to low or no economic growth for 2015-2016. This comes at a time of corruption issues and ratings one notch above junk for state oil company Petrobras, which itself needs government support.

Grouped Articles

Brazil’s coming recession: The crash of a titan

Economist 04/05/2015

Fed Must Consider the World and All U.S. Employment

Wall Street Journal 04/09/2015

Russia, Brazil Mistakes Show How Inflation Can Still Arise

Wall Street Journal 05/03/2015

Learning the lessons of stagnation

Economist 06/30/2015

How Brazil’s China-Driven Commodities Boom Went Bust

Wall Street Journal 08/28/2015

Brazil Sinks into Technical Recession on Second Quarter Output Contraction

Wall Street Journal 08/28/2015

Winners and losers in emerging markets in 2015 with lower oil prices- Turkey and India are winners, China a beneficiary, Russia, Venezuela and Brazil are losers

01/18/2015

The economic prospects of emerging market countries have changed significantly since 2013. In Turkey political problems and a high current account deficit led to a slump in the lira and high interest rate policies by early 2014. In India the Congress party government let the economy drift in 2013 with no action taken. The newly elected Modi adminstration in 2014 and now lower oil prices are giving a major boost to economic growth in India. China with huge oil imports is also a beneficiary as it tackles problems from the boom years and growth slows to below 7%.

Grouped Articles

Turkey’s economy: Saved by the well

Economist 01/18/2015

Monetary policy in India: The cycle turns

Economist 01/18/2015

Oil Prices Slump as Inventories Rise Near 80-Year Highs

Wall Street Journal 02/05/2015

India Growth Rate Set to Rival China

Wall Street Journal 02/10/2015

Turkish Officials Seen Stoking Crisis as Lira Hits Record Low

Wall Street Journal 03/05/2015

A Windfall for China as Commodity Prices Plunge

Wall Street Journal 03/16/2015

Former World Bank chief Zoellick on the need for productivity improvements and investment in human capital for emerging markets in 2013-2023

09/12/2013

India, S. Africa, Brazil China, Indonesia, Mexico, Turkey and other emerging markets need productivity improvements and investment in human capital as growth slows in emerging markets in 2013. The crisis is particularly acute in India.

Grouped Articles

How Emerging Markets Can Get Their Mojo Back

Wall Street Journal 09/12/2013

China’s Economy, Back on Track

New York Times 10/04/2013

China Think Tank Offers Reform Wish List

Wall Street Journal 10/30/2013

Emerging Markets' Pivot Point

Wall Street Journal 11/04/2013

Investors Flee Developing Countries

Wall Street Journal 01/24/2014

Turkish Intervention Fails to Stem Lira Sell-Off

Wall Street Journal 01/24/2014

Argentina's economy in 2015-2016

06/12/2015

Grouped Articles

Plan Hang On

Economist 06/12/2015

Learning the lessons of stagnation

Economist 06/30/2015

The Wall Street Journal

Wall Street Journal 07/07/2015

Argentina’s Poverty Levels Could Prove Pivotal in Election

Wall Street Journal 07/14/2015

Macri’s Promising Start in Argentina

Wall Street Journal 12/19/2015

Argentina’s New President Moves Swiftly to Shake Up the Economy

New York Times 12/27/2015

The slowdown in China and the impact on Chile as the commodities boom fades

03/12/2014

Grouped Articles

China Slowdown Is Rocking Raw Materials

Wall Street Journal 03/12/2014

China’s Slowdown Hits Price of Iron Ore

Wall Street Journal 12/01/2014

Slowdown in China Bruises Economy in Latin America

New York Times 12/16/2014

An Economic Boom Recedes, but South America Might Avert the Bust

New York Times 12/29/2014

Commodities Fall as Stockpiles Mount Up

Wall Street Journal 01/19/2015

Chileans Welcome President’s Declared Cabinet Shuffle

Wall Street Journal 05/07/2015

Brazil's economy in 2015-2016

04/05/2015

Grouped Articles

Brazil’s coming recession: The crash of a titan

Economist 04/05/2015

Learning the lessons of stagnation

Economist 06/30/2015

How Brazil’s China-Driven Commodities Boom Went Bust

Wall Street Journal 08/28/2015

Brazil’s Economic Crisis Beats the Emerging Middle Class Back Down

Wall Street Journal 11/10/2015

Gloom on Brazil Finances Deepens

Wall Street Journal 12/17/2015

Brazil’s Finance Minister Replaced

New York Times 12/18/2015

Economic policy errors in Russia and Brazil

05/03/2015

Brazil raises interest rates to over 13%, as it faces critical needs of private companies financing dollar based debt. This is likely to lead to further economic contraction and higher inflation. Inflation is at over 8% in 2015. Russia lowered the high interest rates ratcheted up to 17% to tackle a ruble collapse in 2015. Interest rates were lowered to but this move also aggravates inflation which is now at close to 17%.

Grouped Articles

Russia, Brazil Mistakes Show How Inflation Can Still Arise

Wall Street Journal 05/03/2015

Changing Course, Russia Will Sell Rubles Instead of Buying

New York Times 05/14/2015

Learning the lessons of stagnation

Economist 06/30/2015

How Brazil’s China-Driven Commodities Boom Went Bust

Wall Street Journal 08/28/2015

Brazil’s Finance Minister Replaced

New York Times 12/18/2015

Putin’s self-destructing economy - The Washington Post

Washington Post 01/18/2016

Emerging markets and the sea of liquidity that undermines manufacturing competitiveness in Brazil, Turkey and other countries

04/25/2011

Grouped Articles

A Warning Light to Alert the I.M.F.

New York Times 09/21/2011

Financial Fears Gain Credence as Unrest Shakes Turkey

New York Times 06/05/2013

Emerging Markets, Hitting a Wall

New York Times 06/22/2013

Mom-and-Pop Investors Bolt Emerging Markets

Wall Street Journal 08/22/2013

This Age of Bubbles

New York Times 08/22/2013

How Emerging Markets Can Get Their Mojo Back

Wall Street Journal 09/12/2013


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