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Putin’s self-destructing economy - The Washington Post
Keywords:
Tags: Early Warning, Russia,
Inozemtsev of the Institute of Post-Industrial Studies in Moscow, asks the question wht if the Russian economy shows no growth in 2017, and 2015-2016 become the beginning of a serious downturn. If oil prices remain low for an extended period as now looks likely with factors such as shale oil technologies, Iranian oil, and Saudi policy, playing an increasingly long term role, Russia could face some of the problems former finance minister, Alexei Kudrin, other business leaders including head of Sberbank, warned about. A major problem that Inozemtsev points to is the change in the business climate for foreign investment in 2012-2016 as the Russian economy looks more inward, and the departure of many foreign companies. During the period 2000-2008, a major boost to the economy came from foreign investment which brought with it management and technological improvements. No emerging market country, including China, can have a bright future without access to new technologies and investments from foreign investment. The current period starting in 2009 stands in sharp contrast to the earlier period with the Russian economy lacking the boost from foreign investment, facing capital outflows, and international conflicts creating a long term effect on oil prices. Russia needed time to move its economy away from commodity dependence through technological improvements and investment, yet this does not appear to be happening, raising serious questions.
Faces in Russia during the economic crisis of 2014-2016- Anatoly Artamonov, governor of the Russia's Kaluga region, and plants of Severstal
03/17/2015
This account of life in the Kaluga region, a provincial city 110 miles south of Moscow, shows how Russia is coping with the 50% drop in the value of the ruble and the drop in oil prices below $50. Anatoly Karmanov, the able and energetic Russian who once ran a collective in the Brezhnev era, says its stupidity to have to hide that he talks to business people in other parts of the world to attract investment. VW plans to continue investment in the country, Continental AG is continuing production based on replacement demand for tires. The auto industry which provides about half of the output in Kaluga is hit hard, with the Association of European Business estimate of about 39% drop in production in Feb. 2015 compared to Feb. 2014. Only about 40% of production cost is from local parts at assembly factories, the rest is imported parts at the new ruble exchange rate, leading to a jump in prices and slumping demand.
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The global economy in 2015-2016- slowing growth in China, Brazil, Russia and Turkey, as growth picks up in the U.S. and India, and Europe emerges from the eurozone debt crisis
11/29/2015
High debt to GDP ratios in China, Brazil and Turkey lead to slowing growth. India is the exception in emerging markets as foreign investment increases and GDP growth is above 7%, with a boost from halving of oil prices. Europe sees the need for more quantitative easing, and the U.S. makes a slow recovery. Russia may see an improvement after a large devaluation of the ruble. Argentina's prospects are seen as improving with a change in government. Canada sees a change from the drift in the last years of the Harper government and the hollowing out of the industrial sector, with the election of Justin Trudeau. Overall the situation in 2015-2016 is a marked improvement compared to ten years earlier in 2005, as debt issues are tackled seriously in Europe and the U.S. and governance in the private sector improves.
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Tensions With Russia Add to a Chill in Turkey’s Economy
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Putin’s self-destructing economy - The Washington Post
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How the improved German-Russian relations helps to build a more confident Russia with improved economy and stable East-West relations, and both a growing market, energy supplier to east and west and a center of R and D for business.
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Germany's Angela Merkel Treads Softly With Russia's Putin On Ukraine
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Putin’s self-destructing economy - The Washington Post
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Germany Drafts Policy for Europe to Strengthen Russian Ties
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Temp Work Booms in Germany, to Laborâs Chagrin
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Russian president Putin's year end news conference in Dec. 2015
12/17/2015
Sharp words for Turkey, references to his daughters at Russian universities working in 3 languages, and saying Russia's bombing campaign in Syria comes from the Defense Ministry training budget, part of the year end conference answering questions from journalists. Putin says the Russian economy's downturn is bottoming out. He continues to enjoy high popularity in Russia for defending Russian interests more than for management of the economy. Russians may see the oil price declines as beyond Putin's control, and see the effect of NATO at Russia's borders in the same way as Putin does. Putin points to the increase of life expectancy in Russia to 71 as one of the achievements of this period.
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Vladimir Putin Chides Turkey, Praises Trump and Talks Up Russia’s Economy
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Prepare for serious turbulence in Russia - The Washington Post
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Washington Post 01/18/2016
Prepare for serious turbulence in Russia - The Washington Post
Washington Post 01/18/2016
Russian Economy Stumbles as Stocks and Oil Prices Fall
New York Times 01/21/2016
Why the Russian Economy Is Tumbling
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The effect of lower oil prices and other economic problems on the Russian economy 2015-2016
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Russia, Brazil Mistakes Show How Inflation Can Still Arise
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U.S. Oil Prices Hit Fresh Six-Year Low, Dipping Below $40 a Barrel
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The MacArthur Foundation and other organizations leaving Russia in 2014-2016
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MacArthur Foundation to Close Offices in Russia
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Putin’s self-destructing economy - The Washington Post
Washington Post 01/18/2016
Alexei Kudrin calls for improved relations for Russia with western partners as a way out of the economic crisis, with Europe and the U.S.
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Grouped Articles
Russia's Central Bank Acts to Save Trust Bank, a Failing Lender, With More Rescues Expected
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Putin’s self-destructing economy - The Washington Post
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Why the Russian Economy Is Tumbling
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Economic policy errors in Russia and Brazil
05/03/2015
Brazil raises interest rates to over 13%, as it faces critical needs of private companies financing dollar based debt. This is likely to lead to further economic contraction and higher inflation. Inflation is at over 8% in 2015. Russia lowered the high interest rates ratcheted up to 17% to tackle a ruble collapse in 2015. Interest rates were lowered to but this move also aggravates inflation which is now at close to 17%.
Grouped Articles
Russia, Brazil Mistakes Show How Inflation Can Still Arise
Wall Street Journal 05/03/2015
Changing Course, Russia Will Sell Rubles Instead of Buying
New York Times 05/14/2015
Learning the lessons of stagnation
Economist 06/30/2015
How Brazil’s China-Driven Commodities Boom Went Bust
Wall Street Journal 08/28/2015
Brazil’s Finance Minister Replaced
New York Times 12/18/2015
Putin’s self-destructing economy - The Washington Post
Washington Post 01/18/2016
Russia's economic policies for Putin's third term as President
02/22/2011
Grouped Articles
Putin Pledges Stimulus for Russian Economy
Wall Street Journal 06/21/2013
Russia's Growth Pace Continues to Weaken
Wall Street Journal 08/11/2013
Russia Looks to Borrow to Plug Funding Gap
Wall Street Journal 09/19/2013
Russia Prepared to Let Ruble Slide
Wall Street Journal 01/30/2014
Wall Street Journal 03/05/2012
Competing Visions for Russia’s Economic Future
New York Times 05/22/2014
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