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Fears expressed by Kudrin and other experts at a Moscow conference about the impact of a recession in the eurozone and Greece's exit from the euro. Kudrin was a key figure in Russia anticipating and setting aside reserves in the sovereign fund to meet the adverse effects of the 2008 global financial crisis. The views expressed were that Russia's economy is shaky and could be seriously affected if European banks reduce their loans. Earlier he strongly opposed increases in military spending in a disagreement with prime minister Medvedev because of concerns about financial stability.
Grouped Articles
Ex-Aide to Medvedev and Putin Out at Kremlin
New York Times 05/08/2013
Putin Pledges Stimulus for Russian Economy
Wall Street Journal 06/21/2013
Russia's Growth Pace Continues to Weaken
Wall Street Journal 08/11/2013
Russia Looks to Borrow to Plug Funding Gap
Wall Street Journal 09/19/2013
Russia Is Facing Stagflation, Central Banker Says
Wall Street Journal 01/17/2014
Russia Prepared to Let Ruble Slide
Wall Street Journal 01/30/2014
Kudrin on higher military spending of 3% of Russia's GDP, exceeding the amount spent on education. He sees this as endangering Russia's finances. Kudrin's focus on building the Russian Stabilization Fund helped Russia weather the 2008 global financial crisis. He is one of the St Petersburg officials who helped bring Putin to the Presidency. A slowing economy and a decline in oil prices would have an impact on the Russian economy. Analysts say Russia needs an oil price of $120 to support the current level of spending.
Grouped Articles
Putin Pledges Stimulus for Russian Economy
Wall Street Journal 06/21/2013
Russia Looks to Borrow to Plug Funding Gap
Wall Street Journal 09/19/2013
Russia Prepared to Let Ruble Slide
Wall Street Journal 01/30/2014
Red Alert on Russia Is Premature
Wall Street Journal 02/03/2014
Russia's Power Play Hits Economic Weak Spot
Wall Street Journal 03/04/2014
Russia Economy Worsens Even Before Sanctions Hit
New York Times 04/16/2014
High debt to GDP ratios in China, Brazil and Turkey lead to slowing growth. India is the exception in emerging markets as foreign investment increases and GDP growth is above 7%, with a boost from halving of oil prices. Europe sees the need for more quantitative easing, and the U.S. makes a slow recovery. Russia may see an improvement after a large devaluation of the ruble. Argentina's prospects are seen as improving with a change in government. Canada sees a change from the drift in the last years of the Harper government and the hollowing out of the industrial sector, with the election of Justin Trudeau. Overall the situation in 2015-2016 is a marked improvement compared to ten years earlier in 2005, as debt issues are tackled seriously in Europe and the U.S. and governance in the private sector improves.
Grouped Articles
Tensions With Russia Add to a Chill in Turkey’s Economy
New York Times 11/29/2015
China Unveils Economic Blueprint for 2016
Wall Street Journal 12/22/2015
Oil Prices at $30 Bend Nations, But Which Ones Could Break?
Wall Street Journal 01/13/2016
Putin’s self-destructing economy - The Washington Post
Washington Post 01/18/2016
Russian Economy Stumbles as Stocks and Oil Prices Fall
New York Times 01/21/2016
Emerging-Market Debt: How Big a Threat Is It?
Wall Street Journal 02/16/2016
This account of life in the Kaluga region, a provincial city 110 miles south of Moscow, shows how Russia is coping with the 50% drop in the value of the ruble and the drop in oil prices below $50. Anatoly Karmanov, the able and energetic Russian who once ran a collective in the Brezhnev era, says its stupidity to have to hide that he talks to business people in other parts of the world to attract investment. VW plans to continue investment in the country, Continental AG is continuing production based on replacement demand for tires. The auto industry which provides about half of the output in Kaluga is hit hard, with the Association of European Business estimate of about 39% drop in production in Feb. 2015 compared to Feb. 2014. Only about 40% of production cost is from local parts at assembly factories, the rest is imported parts at the new ruble exchange rate, leading to a jump in prices and slumping demand.
Grouped Articles
How Looming Recession Is Unsettling One of Russia’s Boom Cities
Wall Street Journal 03/17/2015
Changing Course, Russia Will Sell Rubles Instead of Buying
New York Times 05/14/2015
Upsides for Steel Industry in a Russian Downturn, Despite Sanctions
New York Times 06/16/2015
U.S. Oil Prices Hit Fresh Six-Year Low, Dipping Below $40 a Barrel
Wall Street Journal 08/23/2015
Economist 08/24/2015
As Oil Keeps Falling, Nobody Is Blinking
Wall Street Journal 12/07/2015
Grouped Articles
Overheard: Ruble in the Rubble
Wall Street Journal 08/25/2015
Russia’s turn to China: A gap between rhetoric and reality - The Washington Post
Washington Post 09/06/2015
Putin’s self-destructing economy - The Washington Post
Washington Post 01/18/2016
Prepare for serious turbulence in Russia - The Washington Post
Washington Post 01/18/2016
Russian Economy Stumbles as Stocks and Oil Prices Fall
New York Times 01/21/2016
Why the Russian Economy Is Tumbling
New York Times 04/12/2016
Grouped Articles
Russia Lifts Crisis Cost Estimate
Wall Street Journal 01/29/2015
Iran’s Nuclear Deal Could Open Oil Flood
Wall Street Journal 03/17/2015
How Looming Recession Is Unsettling One of Russia’s Boom Cities
Wall Street Journal 03/17/2015
Russia, Brazil Mistakes Show How Inflation Can Still Arise
Wall Street Journal 05/03/2015
Oil Markets: Use Your Illusion
Wall Street Journal 05/14/2015
U.S. Oil Prices Hit Fresh Six-Year Low, Dipping Below $40 a Barrel
Wall Street Journal 08/23/2015
Brazil raises interest rates to over 13%, as it faces critical needs of private companies financing dollar based debt. This is likely to lead to further economic contraction and higher inflation. Inflation is at over 8% in 2015. Russia lowered the high interest rates ratcheted up to 17% to tackle a ruble collapse in 2015. Interest rates were lowered to but this move also aggravates inflation which is now at close to 17%.
Grouped Articles
Russia, Brazil Mistakes Show How Inflation Can Still Arise
Wall Street Journal 05/03/2015
Changing Course, Russia Will Sell Rubles Instead of Buying
New York Times 05/14/2015
Learning the lessons of stagnation
Economist 06/30/2015
How Brazil’s China-Driven Commodities Boom Went Bust
Wall Street Journal 08/28/2015
Brazil’s Finance Minister Replaced
New York Times 12/18/2015
Putin’s self-destructing economy - The Washington Post
Washington Post 01/18/2016
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