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Iran’s Nuclear Deal Could Open Oil Flood
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Different estimates on how quickly and how much additional oil would come into world oil markets if sanctions are lifted. The time estimates range from quickly to 6 months for additional new supplies into world oil markets. Estimates of how much production can be added range from 500,000-800,000 barrels a day from private estimates to 1 million additional barrels a day from Iran's oil company, if sanctions are lifted. UK foreign secretary, Philip Hammond, says "there is still a long way to go if we are going to get there." He told a parliamentary committee that the nonnegotiable part is a window of one year advance notice if Iran were to break out and go for a nuclear weapon, which would be based on technical expert opinion of how long it would take Iran to build a nuclear weapon using its knowhow and materials at that Mr Zanganeh took over as oil minister after the election of Rouhani as president 18 months ago. Zanganeh calls the effect of sanctions and the mismanagement of the previous government as "a catastrophe," and he has tried to instill anew discipline in the oil sector. Iran currently produces about 1-1.2 million barrels a day under sanctions, half of earlier levels before sanctions were tightened in 2012 because of the nuclear weapons development issues.
The Iranian factor in oil prices for 2015-2016
03/17/2015
A nuclear deal reached in 2015 would reduce economic sanctions. The economic sanctions since 2012 have cut Iran's sales of crude to 1-2 million barrels a day, half of normal production levels. The extra crude following a succesful nuclear negotiated deal would keep oil prices low for an extended period.
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The economic prospects of emerging market countries have changed significantly since 2013. In Turkey political problems and a high current account deficit led to a slump in the lira and high interest rate policies by early 2014. In India the Congress party government let the economy drift in 2013 with no action taken. The newly elected Modi adminstration in 2014 and now lower oil prices are giving a major boost to economic growth in India. China with huge oil imports is also a beneficiary as it tackles problems from the boom years and growth slows to below 7%.
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The Modi administration's budget for India in 2015 aims for 7.4% growth- allowing a fiscal deficit at 3.9% and increased spending on infrastructure
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The $288 billion budget aims to increase infrastructure spending to achieve a growth rate of 7.4%. A 2% tax on the superrich and rigorous penalties of 10 years imprisonment for tax evasion by sending money overseas are efforts to improve tax revenues in a country where it is estimated only 35 million Indians pay taxes. The lower oil prices help reduce pressures from fiscal deficits, and the decision was taken to let the fiscal deficit increase to 3.9% in the interests of growth.
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