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Russia and Turkey Show Oil Prices Aren’t Everything
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The Russian economy has proved stronger than other emerging markets in a similar situation. The ruble has declined from 35 to the dollar before the Ukraine crisis and sanctions in 2014 to 86 to the dollar in Jan. 2016. Foreign currency reserves dropped from $600 billion to $385 billion in 2009, when Russia with memories of 1997 when the ruble collapsed, decided to prop up the ruble. In Nov. 2014 Russia's central bank let the ruble float, this time responding in a different way following western sanctions over Ukraine and a emerging markets crisis. Interest rates were increased to tackle inflation.A key rate was raised to 17% in Dec. 2014, dropping by Jan 2016 to 11%. Inflation was 12.9% in Dec. 2015, the target for 2017 is 4%. The economy has contracted by 3.7% in 2015, and expected to contract by 1% in 2016, according to the IMF. Alexsei Kudrin, former finance minister, expects modest growth in 2017.
Resilience of the Russsian economy to the fall in oil prices and the decline in the ruble in 2015-2016
01/25/2016
Grouped Articles
Russia and Turkey Show Oil Prices Aren’t Everything
Wall Street Journal 01/25/2016
Oil Falls Most Since 2015 on Fears of Oversupply
WSJ 11/13/2018
Saudis Struggle to Share Pain of Pumping Less Oil
WSJ 11/30/2018
Faces in Russia during the economic crisis of 2014-2016- Anatoly Artamonov, governor of the Russia's Kaluga region, and plants of Severstal
03/17/2015
This account of life in the Kaluga region, a provincial city 110 miles south of Moscow, shows how Russia is coping with the 50% drop in the value of the ruble and the drop in oil prices below $50. Anatoly Karmanov, the able and energetic Russian who once ran a collective in the Brezhnev era, says its stupidity to have to hide that he talks to business people in other parts of the world to attract investment. VW plans to continue investment in the country, Continental AG is continuing production based on replacement demand for tires. The auto industry which provides about half of the output in Kaluga is hit hard, with the Association of European Business estimate of about 39% drop in production in Feb. 2015 compared to Feb. 2014. Only about 40% of production cost is from local parts at assembly factories, the rest is imported parts at the new ruble exchange rate, leading to a jump in prices and slumping demand.
Grouped Articles
How Looming Recession Is Unsettling One of Russia’s Boom Cities
Wall Street Journal 03/17/2015
Changing Course, Russia Will Sell Rubles Instead of Buying
New York Times 05/14/2015
Upsides for Steel Industry in a Russian Downturn, Despite Sanctions
New York Times 06/16/2015
U.S. Oil Prices Hit Fresh Six-Year Low, Dipping Below $40 a Barrel
Wall Street Journal 08/23/2015
Economist 08/24/2015
As Oil Keeps Falling, Nobody Is Blinking
Wall Street Journal 12/07/2015
Recovery in the Russian ruble by May 2015
05/14/2015
The Russian ruble goes from a low of 80 to the dollar in Dec. 2014 to 50 to the dollar by May 2015. The euro also strengthens against the dollar with weakening economic conditions in the U.S. reversing the strength of the dollar.
Grouped Articles
Changing Course, Russia Will Sell Rubles Instead of Buying
New York Times 05/14/2015
Overheard: Ruble in the Rubble
Wall Street Journal 08/25/2015
Russia and Turkey Show Oil Prices Aren’t Everything
Wall Street Journal 01/25/2016
Why the Russian Economy Is Tumbling
New York Times 04/12/2016
Russian ruble volatility in Dec 2014 and Jan. 2015
12/16/2014
Capital controls are ruled out as this could lead to more capital flight. Russian central bank reduces intervention to preserve foreign currency reserves.
Grouped Articles
Ruble Strengthens After Central Bank Acts
Wall Street Journal 12/18/2014
Russia Introduces Measures to Calm Economic Jitters
New York Times 12/17/2014
Ruble Crisis Is Testing Russia's Resources
New York Times 12/17/2014
New York Times 12/18/2014
As Ruble Falters, Russia Forces Exporters to Reduce Foreign Currency
New York Times 12/23/2014
As the Ruble Swoons, Russians Desperately Shop
New York Times 12/16/2014
Severstal and the Russian steel industry- surging profits and growth with the decline in the ruble 2014-2015
06/16/2015
The steel industry and the chemicals industry are bright spots in the Russian economy, helping Russia weather the economc downturn in 2014-2015. Costs denominated in rubles have fallen much further, increasing profits and helping Severstal expand.
Grouped Articles
Upsides for Steel Industry in a Russian Downturn, Despite Sanctions
New York Times 06/16/2015
Overheard: Ruble in the Rubble
Wall Street Journal 08/25/2015
Russia and Turkey Show Oil Prices Aren’t Everything
Wall Street Journal 01/25/2016
U.S. Sanctions Give Russian Economy an Unintended Boost
WSJ 10/16/2018
The impact of the declining ruble on the Russian economy by December 2014
12/04/2014
The ruble declines to 52 to the dollar by Dec. 2014, losing about 40% of its value in 2014. Oil prices decline to about $67 for Brent crude by Dec. 2014 accelerating the fall in the ruble.
Grouped Articles
Falling oil prices hit Russia much harder than Western sanctions - The Washington Post
Washington Post 12/04/2014
Washington Post 12/04/2014
Oil Prices Slip Further After IEA Report
Wall Street Journal 12/12/2014
Weak Ruble Keeps Russians at Home
Wall Street Journal 12/14/2014
Russia Moves to Help Lift Sinking Ruble
Wall Street Journal 12/16/2014
Oil Prices Plunge With Brent Crude Below $60
Wall Street Journal 12/16/2014
The option of capital controls in Russia's ruble crisis of 2014-2015
12/18/2014
Grouped Articles
Russian Controls Would Risk Capital Chaos
Wall Street Journal 12/18/2014
Ruble Strengthens After Central Bank Acts
Wall Street Journal 12/18/2014
Changing Course, Russia Will Sell Rubles Instead of Buying
New York Times 05/14/2015
Russia and Turkey Show Oil Prices Aren’t Everything
Wall Street Journal 01/25/2016
Faces and life in Russia in 2014-2015 following western sanctions and the sharp decline in the ruble
12/14/2014
Grouped Articles
Weak Ruble Keeps Russians at Home
Wall Street Journal 12/14/2014
Ruble Strengthens After Central Bank Acts
Wall Street Journal 12/18/2014
As the Ruble Swoons, Russians Desperately Shop
New York Times 12/16/2014
Ruble’s Fall Tests Governor of Russia’s Central Bank
New York Times 02/09/2015
How Looming Recession Is Unsettling One of Russia’s Boom Cities
Wall Street Journal 03/17/2015
Russian Consumers Reflect the Pinch of Economic Sanctions
New York Times 04/09/2015
Memories of the 1998 collapse of the ruble as Russia uses a third of its foreign exchange reserves in 2009 to support the ruble
02/04/2009
Reserves drop from $600 billion to $385 billion as Russia uses its reserves to support the ruble in 2009. Memories of the poverty and humiliation suffered as the ruble collapsed in 1997 remained uppermost in the minds of Russians.
Grouped Articles
Russia Faces Tough Fight on Ruble
Wall Street Journal 02/04/2009
Russian Ruble Hits Fresh Record Low Against Dollar
Wall Street Journal 10/06/2014
Russian Companies Clamor for Dollars to Repay Debt
Wall Street Journal 10/10/2014
Russian Ruble Fall to Fresh Lows
Wall Street Journal 10/10/2014
Inflation-Racked Russia Considering Price Controls
Wall Street Journal 10/10/2014
Ruble Slide Worries Wealthy Russians
Wall Street Journal 10/11/2014
Russia- interest rates and the ruble
12/15/2014
Grouped Articles
Interest Rate Raised to 17% in Russia
New York Times 12/15/2014
As the Ruble Swoons, Russians Desperately Shop
New York Times 12/16/2014
Ruble’s Fall Tests Governor of Russia’s Central Bank
New York Times 02/09/2015
Russia, Brazil Mistakes Show How Inflation Can Still Arise
Wall Street Journal 05/03/2015
Changing Course, Russia Will Sell Rubles Instead of Buying
New York Times 05/14/2015
Russia and Turkey Show Oil Prices Aren’t Everything
Wall Street Journal 01/25/2016
Russia's effort to prevent the ruble from collapsing in December 2014
12/15/2014
Russia raises interest rates by 6.5% to 17% on December 15, 2014, as the price of Brent crude drops below $60. Emerging markets see money outflows in anticipation of the the U.S. Federal Reserve raising rates in 2015, adding to pressure on the ruble. Western sanctions imposed after Russian intervention in Ukraine has reduced access to financial markets for Russian businesses that borrowed in U.S. dollars and have large payments due in 2015. The large increase in interest rates pushes Russia into a recession in 2015.
Grouped Articles
Russia Moves to Help Lift Sinking Ruble
Wall Street Journal 12/16/2014
Oil Prices Plunge With Brent Crude Below $60
Wall Street Journal 12/16/2014
Ruble Strengthens After Central Bank Acts
Wall Street Journal 12/18/2014
Russia Introduces Measures to Calm Economic Jitters
New York Times 12/17/2014
New York Times 12/18/2014
Interest Rate Raised to 17% in Russia
New York Times 12/15/2014
The Bank of Russia and the decision to float the ruble in Nov. 2014
11/19/2014
With Russia's dollar currency reserves dropping to $421 billion, less than enough to cover 6 months of imports, the Bank of Russia had no option but to let the ruble float freely, say experts. The ruble was at 46 to the dollar by mid-Nov. 2014. Experts say it would have to fall to 50 to the dollar to risk financial stability.
Grouped Articles
Bank of Russia Chief Defends Ruble Float
Wall Street Journal 11/19/2014
Oil Slide Deepens, Ruble Crumbles
Wall Street Journal 12/01/2014
Wall Street Journal 12/02/2014
Ruble Strengthens After Central Bank Acts
Wall Street Journal 12/18/2014
Ruble’s Fall Tests Governor of Russia’s Central Bank
New York Times 02/09/2015
Changing Course, Russia Will Sell Rubles Instead of Buying
New York Times 05/14/2015
The pressure on the Russian ruble in 2014-2015
10/10/2014
Weak economic conditions, capital outflows and demand from the corporate sector to repay debt, add to the pressures on the ruble in 2014.
Grouped Articles
Russian Companies Clamor for Dollars to Repay Debt
Wall Street Journal 10/10/2014
Russian Ruble Fall to Fresh Lows
Wall Street Journal 10/10/2014
Inflation-Racked Russia Considering Price Controls
Wall Street Journal 10/10/2014
Ruble Slide Worries Wealthy Russians
Wall Street Journal 10/11/2014
Global Oil Glut Sends Prices Plunging
Wall Street Journal 10/15/2014
Wall Street Journal 11/03/2014
Resilence of the Russian economy in 2015-2016 compared to other emerging markets- (1) the decision to let the ruble float in Nov. 2014
02/09/2015
Linked Articles
Russia and Turkey Show Oil Prices Aren’t Everything
Wall Street Journal 01/25/2016
Ruble’s Fall Tests Governor of Russia’s Central Bank
New York Times 02/09/2015
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