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As Oil Keeps Falling, Nobody Is Blinking
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Several factors make it likely that oil prices will remain low for an extended period of time into 2016 and beyond. As Ailworth points out nobody is blinking. The Saudis plan no change to their high production. U.S. oil producers in the Gulf of Mexico have already made investments for deep sea drilling wells following the end of the moratorium on drilling in the Gulf. Many of these wells are producing at very low marginal cost as most of the investments have already been made. It makes economic sense to produce even in a low price environment, according to Andarko. Shell continues to invest in the deep waters of the Gulf. Its production is up 10% to 250,000 barrels a day. American shale oil drillers have not cut back as much as expected, partly because many companies with large debts need the cash flow to pay interest on debt. And some of the 1200 wells that were drilled but left untapped may also be brought on stream to slow production declines. As a result the overall production of American crude, according to monthly federal information, has declined by about 3% to 9.3 million barrels from the peak reached in April 2015. This helps the U.S., Europe, China and India, at a time when their economies are experiencing different problems. It hurts Russia, Venezuela, Nigeria, and Iran. Russia is coping as its exporters convert dollars into rubles after the sharp depreciation in the ruble, and helps local industry including steel producers, as well as wheat exports. Venezuela's economy is the worst hit. And Iran now has to produce at high levels in 2016 to improve its economy following the lifting of sanctions.
Continuing decline in oil prices at the end of 2015, with likely continued decline in 2016
12/07/2015
Grouped Articles
As Oil Keeps Falling, Nobody Is Blinking
Wall Street Journal 12/07/2015
Energy Sector Rout Intensifies on Mild Weather, OPEC
Wall Street Journal 12/08/2015
Oil Prices Plunge 5% After OPEC Stands Pat
New York Times 12/07/2015
The Oil-Price Rout: Blink and You Won’t Miss It
Wall Street Journal 12/12/2015
The Global Battle for Oil Market Share
Wall Street Journal 12/16/2015
Oil Plunge Sparks Bankruptcy Concerns
Wall Street Journal 01/12/2016
Decline in Nigeria's currency, the Naira, as oil prices drop in 2014-2015
12/03/2014
A 10% drop in Nigeria's currency by Dec. 2014. Foreign exchange reserves drop to $2 billion in Dec. 2014 putting Nigeria in a precarious financial situation.
Grouped Articles
Nigeria’s Tumbling Currency a Victim of Falling Oil Prices
Wall Street Journal 12/03/2014
Oil Prices Slip Further After IEA Report
Wall Street Journal 12/12/2014
Fall in Oil Prices Threatens Africa’s Economic Growth
Wall Street Journal 12/12/2014
Nigeria’s Central Bank Restricts Currency Trading to Prop Up Naira
Wall Street Journal 12/19/2014
Oil Prices Tumble to Fresh Lows
Wall Street Journal 01/06/2015
Iran’s Nuclear Deal Could Open Oil Flood
Wall Street Journal 03/17/2015
Effects of lower oil prices in 2015- (3) the effect on the airlines industry
12/10/2014
Grouped Articles
Slide in Fuel Costs Lifts Profits for Airlines, but Fares Won’t Fall
New York Times 12/10/2014
Oil Prices Slip Further After IEA Report
Wall Street Journal 12/12/2014
Oil Prices Tumble to Fresh Lows
Wall Street Journal 01/06/2015
Wall Street Journal 01/06/2015
Falling Oil Prices, a Boon to Airlines, Pose a Challenge for Airbus and Boeing
New York Times 01/13/2015
Oil Markets: Use Your Illusion
Wall Street Journal 05/14/2015
Layoffs in the U.S. oil and gas industry in 2015 with low oil prices
04/15/2015
Job losses of about 100,000 in the U.S. oil and gas industry by April 2015.
Grouped Articles
Oil Layoffs Hit 100,000 and Counting
Wall Street Journal 04/15/2015
U.S. Oil Prices Hit Fresh Six-Year Low, Dipping Below $40 a Barrel
Wall Street Journal 08/23/2015
As Oil Keeps Falling, Nobody Is Blinking
Wall Street Journal 12/07/2015
Oil Prices Plunge 5% After OPEC Stands Pat
New York Times 12/07/2015
The Oil-Price Rout: Blink and You Won’t Miss It
Wall Street Journal 12/12/2015
$15 Oil? It’s Already Here, in Canada
Wall Street Journal 01/15/2016
Faces in Russia during the economic crisis of 2014-2016- Anatoly Artamonov, governor of the Russia's Kaluga region, and plants of Severstal
03/17/2015
This account of life in the Kaluga region, a provincial city 110 miles south of Moscow, shows how Russia is coping with the 50% drop in the value of the ruble and the drop in oil prices below $50. Anatoly Karmanov, the able and energetic Russian who once ran a collective in the Brezhnev era, says its stupidity to have to hide that he talks to business people in other parts of the world to attract investment. VW plans to continue investment in the country, Continental AG is continuing production based on replacement demand for tires. The auto industry which provides about half of the output in Kaluga is hit hard, with the Association of European Business estimate of about 39% drop in production in Feb. 2015 compared to Feb. 2014. Only about 40% of production cost is from local parts at assembly factories, the rest is imported parts at the new ruble exchange rate, leading to a jump in prices and slumping demand.
Grouped Articles
How Looming Recession Is Unsettling One of Russia’s Boom Cities
Wall Street Journal 03/17/2015
Changing Course, Russia Will Sell Rubles Instead of Buying
New York Times 05/14/2015
Upsides for Steel Industry in a Russian Downturn, Despite Sanctions
New York Times 06/16/2015
U.S. Oil Prices Hit Fresh Six-Year Low, Dipping Below $40 a Barrel
Wall Street Journal 08/23/2015
Economist 08/24/2015
As Oil Keeps Falling, Nobody Is Blinking
Wall Street Journal 12/07/2015
U.S. oil supply, demand, and prices 2011-2015
04/19/2011
Grouped Articles
Senators Pass Mexico Oil Plan as Snag Arises
Wall Street Journal 12/12/2013
Oil Stays Thick in China Downturn
Wall Street Journal 03/15/2014
Oil Glut Ignites Gasoline Price Swoon
Wall Street Journal 09/12/2014
Oil Markets Fly Into a Perfect Storm
Wall Street Journal 10/09/2014
Oil companies: Unsustainable energy
Economist 10/14/2014
OPEC Split as Oil Prices Fall Sharply
New York Times 10/13/2014
An unambiguous positive effect on the global economy of the 2014-2015 decline in oil prices
12/08/2014
The positive effect on the U.S. measured in percentage of GDP of savings from oil import bills- 0.5%. For Germany 0.8%, Japan 1.2%, China 0.8%, India 1.8%, South Korea 2.4%. A much needed boost for Japan, India, China, and the eurozone at a critical time of flagging economic growth.
Grouped Articles
Falling Oil Prices Spur New Bets on Global Economic Growth
Wall Street Journal 12/08/2014
As Oil Falls, a Look at the Risks
Wall Street Journal 12/09/2014
Oil Prices Slip Further After IEA Report
Wall Street Journal 12/12/2014
Oil Jobs Squeezed as Prices Plummet
Wall Street Journal 12/28/2014
Oil Prices Tumble to Fresh Lows
Wall Street Journal 01/06/2015
Wall Street Journal 01/06/2015
Delta Airlines and lower oil prices in 2015
12/12/2014
Grouped Articles
Delta Expects Lower Fuel Prices to Boost Profit in 2015
Wall Street Journal 12/12/2014
Oil Prices Tumble to Fresh Lows
Wall Street Journal 01/06/2015
Oil Markets: Use Your Illusion
Wall Street Journal 05/14/2015
U.S. Oil Prices Hit Fresh Six-Year Low, Dipping Below $40 a Barrel
Wall Street Journal 08/23/2015
Delta Profit Soars on Lower Fuel Costs
Wall Street Journal 10/15/2015
As Oil Keeps Falling, Nobody Is Blinking
Wall Street Journal 12/07/2015
India's energy shortages and efforts to increase investment for oil and gas production- 2012-2015
04/11/2012
Investment in oil and gas exploration by India of $16 billion is about half the amount invested by Brazil in the same 15 year period. The move in 2013 bringing state mandated natural gas prices closer to world prices is an effort to increase India's investment in the energy field.
Grouped Articles
Indian energy: A price worth paying
Economist 07/08/2013
Rupee Throws Oil on India's Subsidy Problem
Wall Street Journal 08/21/2013
Indian Firm to Pay $2.64 Billion To Build Its Stake in African Gas Project
New York Times 08/26/2013
The Poor Need Cheap Fossil Fuels
New York Times 12/03/2013
India Grapples With Soaring Energy Costs
Wall Street Journal 04/11/2012
Global Oil Glut Sends Prices Plunging
Wall Street Journal 10/15/2014
Winners and losers in emerging markets in 2015 with lower oil prices- Turkey and India are winners, China a beneficiary, Russia, Venezuela and Brazil are losers
01/18/2015
The economic prospects of emerging market countries have changed significantly since 2013. In Turkey political problems and a high current account deficit led to a slump in the lira and high interest rate policies by early 2014. In India the Congress party government let the economy drift in 2013 with no action taken. The newly elected Modi adminstration in 2014 and now lower oil prices are giving a major boost to economic growth in India. China with huge oil imports is also a beneficiary as it tackles problems from the boom years and growth slows to below 7%.
Grouped Articles
Turkey’s economy: Saved by the well
Economist 01/18/2015
Monetary policy in India: The cycle turns
Economist 01/18/2015
Oil Prices Slump as Inventories Rise Near 80-Year Highs
Wall Street Journal 02/05/2015
India Growth Rate Set to Rival China
Wall Street Journal 02/10/2015
Turkish Officials Seen Stoking Crisis as Lira Hits Record Low
Wall Street Journal 03/05/2015
A Windfall for China as Commodity Prices Plunge
Wall Street Journal 03/16/2015
Iran's fragile economic recovery endangered by sharp drop in oil prices and continued western sanctions in 2015
12/23/2014
Grouped Articles
Oil Price Drop, Nuclear Deal Delay Unsettle Iran’s Economy
Wall Street Journal 12/23/2014
Oil Prices Tumble to Fresh Lows
Wall Street Journal 01/06/2015
Iran’s Nuclear Deal Could Open Oil Flood
Wall Street Journal 03/17/2015
Wall Street Journal 04/21/2015
Americans’ Support for Iran Nuclear Deal Holds Steady — WSJ/NBC Poll
Wall Street Journal 06/30/2015
Iran’s Discount Deal for Global Oil
Wall Street Journal 07/14/2015
U.S. oil inventories for 279 days of net imports in Dec. 2014 put continued downward pressure on oil prices in 2015 as prices drop below $50
01/05/2015
Grouped Articles
Wall Street Journal 01/06/2015
Oil’s Fall Continues Into 2015, and Stock Markets Shudder
New York Times 01/05/2015
Oil-Product Prices Fall as Supplies Climb
Wall Street Journal 01/08/2015
The new economics of oil: Sheikhs v shale
Economist 01/13/2015
Oil Prices Slump as Inventories Rise Near 80-Year Highs
Wall Street Journal 02/05/2015
Oil Glut Sparks Latest Dilemma: Where to Put It All
Wall Street Journal 03/06/2015
An extended period of low oil prices expected in December 2015 as Saudis and other producers plan no changes to production
12/07/2015
Linked Articles
As Oil Keeps Falling, Nobody Is Blinking
Wall Street Journal 12/07/2015
Oil Prices Plunge 5% After OPEC Stands Pat
New York Times 12/07/2015
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