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Oil Prices at $30 Bend Nations, But Which Ones Could Break?
Keywords:
Winners and losers in emerging markets in 2015 with lower oil prices- Turkey and India are winners, China a beneficiary, Russia, Venezuela and Brazil are losers
01/18/2015
The economic prospects of emerging market countries have changed significantly since 2013. In Turkey political problems and a high current account deficit led to a slump in the lira and high interest rate policies by early 2014. In India the Congress party government let the economy drift in 2013 with no action taken. The newly elected Modi adminstration in 2014 and now lower oil prices are giving a major boost to economic growth in India. China with huge oil imports is also a beneficiary as it tackles problems from the boom years and growth slows to below 7%.
Grouped Articles
Turkey’s economy: Saved by the well
Economist 01/18/2015
Monetary policy in India: The cycle turns
Economist 01/18/2015
Oil Prices Slump as Inventories Rise Near 80-Year Highs
Wall Street Journal 02/05/2015
India Growth Rate Set to Rival China
Wall Street Journal 02/10/2015
Turkish Officials Seen Stoking Crisis as Lira Hits Record Low
Wall Street Journal 03/05/2015
A Windfall for China as Commodity Prices Plunge
Wall Street Journal 03/16/2015
The effect of lower oil prices and other economic problems on the Russian economy 2015-2016
01/29/2015
Grouped Articles
Russia Lifts Crisis Cost Estimate
Wall Street Journal 01/29/2015
Iran’s Nuclear Deal Could Open Oil Flood
Wall Street Journal 03/17/2015
How Looming Recession Is Unsettling One of Russia’s Boom Cities
Wall Street Journal 03/17/2015
Russia, Brazil Mistakes Show How Inflation Can Still Arise
Wall Street Journal 05/03/2015
Oil Markets: Use Your Illusion
Wall Street Journal 05/14/2015
U.S. Oil Prices Hit Fresh Six-Year Low, Dipping Below $40 a Barrel
Wall Street Journal 08/23/2015
The effect of low oil prices on oil exports dependent countries in 2015- Russia, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Ecuador
08/24/2015
Grouped Articles
From Venezuela to Iraq to Russia, Oil Price Drops Raise Fears of Unrest
New York Times 08/24/2015
Few in Venezuela Want Bolívars, but No One Can Spare a Dime
New York Times 10/18/2015
Venezuelan Opposition Wins Congressional Midterm Elections
Wall Street Journal 12/07/2015
Saudi Arabia, Squeezed by Low Oil Prices, Cuts Spending to Shrink Deficit
New York Times 12/28/2015
Oil Plunge Sparks Bankruptcy Concerns
Wall Street Journal 01/12/2016
Oil Prices at $30 Bend Nations, But Which Ones Could Break?
Wall Street Journal 01/13/2016
The global economy in 2015-2016- slowing growth in China, Brazil, Russia and Turkey, as growth picks up in the U.S. and India, and Europe emerges from the eurozone debt crisis
11/29/2015
High debt to GDP ratios in China, Brazil and Turkey lead to slowing growth. India is the exception in emerging markets as foreign investment increases and GDP growth is above 7%, with a boost from halving of oil prices. Europe sees the need for more quantitative easing, and the U.S. makes a slow recovery. Russia may see an improvement after a large devaluation of the ruble. Argentina's prospects are seen as improving with a change in government. Canada sees a change from the drift in the last years of the Harper government and the hollowing out of the industrial sector, with the election of Justin Trudeau. Overall the situation in 2015-2016 is a marked improvement compared to ten years earlier in 2005, as debt issues are tackled seriously in Europe and the U.S. and governance in the private sector improves.
Grouped Articles
Tensions With Russia Add to a Chill in Turkey’s Economy
New York Times 11/29/2015
China Unveils Economic Blueprint for 2016
Wall Street Journal 12/22/2015
Oil Prices at $30 Bend Nations, But Which Ones Could Break?
Wall Street Journal 01/13/2016
Putin’s self-destructing economy - The Washington Post
Washington Post 01/18/2016
Russian Economy Stumbles as Stocks and Oil Prices Fall
New York Times 01/21/2016
Emerging-Market Debt: How Big a Threat Is It?
Wall Street Journal 02/16/2016
Saudi price strategy in 2015 and U.S. shale oil drillers
01/10/2015
Grouped Articles
Saudi Arabia’s Cure for Shale Could Entail Shock Therapy
Wall Street Journal 01/10/2015
The new economics of oil: Sheikhs v shale
Economist 01/13/2015
Back to the Future? Oil Replays 1980s Bust
Wall Street Journal 01/14/2015
New King in Saudi Arabia Unlikely to Alter Oil Policy
New York Times 01/23/2015
Oil-Drop Pain Spreads to Saudi Arabia’s Energy Behemoth
Wall Street Journal 02/20/2015
Shale-Oil Producers Ready to Raise Output
Wall Street Journal 05/14/2015
The effect of sharp oil price declines in 2015 on Saudi Aramco
02/20/2015
Saudi Aramco is seeking price cuts from suppliers as it faces a sharp decline in oil prices.
Grouped Articles
Oil-Drop Pain Spreads to Saudi Arabia’s Energy Behemoth
Wall Street Journal 02/20/2015
As Saudis Keep Pumping, Thirst for Domestic Oil Swells
Wall Street Journal 07/04/2015
U.S. Oil Prices Hit Fresh Six-Year Low, Dipping Below $40 a Barrel
Wall Street Journal 08/23/2015
From Venezuela to Iraq to Russia, Oil Price Drops Raise Fears of Unrest
New York Times 08/24/2015
OPEC’s Oil Output Strategy Seen Potentially Backfiring
Wall Street Journal 11/10/2015
Saudi Arabia, Squeezed by Low Oil Prices, Cuts Spending to Shrink Deficit
New York Times 12/28/2015
The calculations of the Saudis, Russia, Iran and Iraq, Venezuela, and other OPEC members as oil prices decline in Oct.-Dec. 2014
10/15/2014
Each side the Saudis, the Russia, and Iran is looking at the drop in oil prices and how much it can absorb using sovereign reserves as lower prices leads to budget deficits in 2015-2016. Russia and Iran face greater problems with western sanctions, and falling currency values exacerbating rising inflation. Other OPEC countries such as Venezuela and Nigeria face a crisis from falling revenues. In the U.S. this will affect shale oil production as less efficient producers shut down plants, with the overall outlook of lower oil prices being positive.
Grouped Articles
Fall in Oil Prices Poses a Problem for Russia, Iraq and Others
New York Times 10/15/2014
The Oil Price Swoon Won’t Stop the Shale Boom
Wall Street Journal 10/23/2014
As Oil Prices Plummet, Saudi Arabia Faces a Test of Strategy
New York Times 10/15/2014
Refining Saudi Arabia’s Oil Strategy
Wall Street Journal 11/03/2014
Saudi Price Cut Upends Oil Market
Wall Street Journal 11/04/2014
OPEC Members Nearing Compromise on Supply Cuts
Wall Street Journal 11/26/2014
The impact of the declining ruble on the Russian economy by December 2014
12/04/2014
The ruble declines to 52 to the dollar by Dec. 2014, losing about 40% of its value in 2014. Oil prices decline to about $67 for Brent crude by Dec. 2014 accelerating the fall in the ruble.
Grouped Articles
Falling oil prices hit Russia much harder than Western sanctions - The Washington Post
Washington Post 12/04/2014
Washington Post 12/04/2014
Oil Prices Slip Further After IEA Report
Wall Street Journal 12/12/2014
Weak Ruble Keeps Russians at Home
Wall Street Journal 12/14/2014
Russia Moves to Help Lift Sinking Ruble
Wall Street Journal 12/16/2014
Oil Prices Plunge With Brent Crude Below $60
Wall Street Journal 12/16/2014
How the Saudis are coping with lower oil prices and revenues- cutting gasoline subsidies and other spending to reduce budget deficits in 2016
12/28/2015
Gasoline prices for some grades of gasoline sold in Saudi gas stations will increase by 50% as the Saudi Finance Ministry copes with dropping oil revenues. The 2016 budget shows adeficit of $87 billion compared to $98 billion in 2015. At this rate Saudi Arabia would exhaust its foreign exchange reserves of $640 billion by 2020. Saudi Arabia has a rapidly growing population which will increase budget pressures and local oil demand. Its defense spending to counter Iran and Russia in the Syria-Iraq conflict and in Yemen also affect spending. Lower oil prices are partly a result of the geopolitical conflict in the region and rivalry betweeen Iran backed by Russia and Sunnis led by the Saudi and Emirates, as well as technology in shale oil production. This comes at a good time for China as it slows, India as it increases its growth rate, and the U.S. and Eurozone as their economies recover from a deep recession, Japan as it improves its economy from low or no growth. For Russia it is seen as away to shift away from imports to domestic industry. For the Saudis an opportuntiy to cut subsidies and improve the productivity of spending.
Grouped Articles
Saudi Arabia, Squeezed by Low Oil Prices, Cuts Spending to Shrink Deficit
New York Times 12/28/2015
Oil Prices at $30 Bend Nations, But Which Ones Could Break?
Wall Street Journal 01/13/2016
Saudi Arabia Keeps Pumping Oil, Despite Financial and Political Risks
New York Times 01/27/2016
Oil-Price Poker: Why the Saudis Won’t Fold ‘Em
Wall Street Journal 02/01/2016
Young Saudis See Cushy Jobs Vanish Along With Nation’s Oil Wealth
New York Times 02/16/2016
Weak Oil Prices Curbing Production
Wall Street Journal 04/13/2016
Saudi oil price cuts in November 2014 to increase U.S. market share- with market share decline to 4.6% in August 2014 from 7% in August 2013
11/04/2014
U.S. imports of Saudi oil declined to 894,000 barrels a day from a high of 1.6 million a few months earlier. Saudi price cuts in November 2014 in the U.S. market, while decreasing prices in tight Asian markets, was designed to reverse the drop in market share. NYMEX price of oil dropped below $80 by early Nov. 2014.
Grouped Articles
Saudi Price Cut Upends Oil Market
Wall Street Journal 11/04/2014
Energy Quakes as OPEC Stands Pat
Wall Street Journal 11/28/2014
OPEC’s Weapon of Mass Inaction
Wall Street Journal 11/28/2014
Free Fall in Oil Price Underscores Shift Away From OPEC
New York Times 11/28/2014
Oil Slide Deepens, Ruble Crumbles
Wall Street Journal 12/01/2014
Oil Prices Slip Further After IEA Report
Wall Street Journal 12/12/2014
Saudi oil price strategies in 2014-2016
10/15/2014
Grouped Articles
As Oil Prices Plummet, Saudi Arabia Faces a Test of Strategy
New York Times 10/15/2014
Refining Saudi Arabia’s Oil Strategy
Wall Street Journal 11/03/2014
Saudi Price Cut Upends Oil Market
Wall Street Journal 11/04/2014
Energy Quakes as OPEC Stands Pat
Wall Street Journal 11/28/2014
OPEC’s Weapon of Mass Inaction
Wall Street Journal 11/28/2014
Free Fall in Oil Price Underscores Shift Away From OPEC
New York Times 11/28/2014
The Saudi currency, Riyal, its peg to the U.S. dollar and the impact of oil prices below $40 in 2016
01/06/2016
A weakening Riyal and the prospect of a removal of the peg to the dollar is seen as a possible economic policy action by the Saudis. Conversion to local currency of dollars at a higher rate would help the economy but pose difficulties for firms and consumers with rising import prices.
Grouped Articles
Pressure Grows on Saudi Arabia to Ditch Dollar Peg
Wall Street Journal 01/06/2016
Oil Plunge Sparks Bankruptcy Concerns
Wall Street Journal 01/12/2016
Saudi Arabia Says It Remains Committed to Dollar Peg
Wall Street Journal 01/12/2016
Oil Prices at $30 Bend Nations, But Which Ones Could Break?
Wall Street Journal 01/13/2016
Saudi Arabia Keeps Pumping Oil, Despite Financial and Political Risks
New York Times 01/27/2016
Saudis Moving to Reduce Dependence on Oil Money
New York Times 04/01/2016
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