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New King in Saudi Arabia Unlikely to Alter Oil Policy
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Experts point out that Saudi oil price policies are set on a technocratic basis by a small group of advisors. An oil industry veteran Naimi, 79, leads this group of advisors. This means the new King Salman is likely to follow the same course as his predecessor King Abdullah. Gulf oil officials were expecting a drop to around $50 to $60 a barrel, the drop below $50 has surprised even the Saudis. NYT cites IMF estimates of a loss of oil revenues for Saudi Arabia and its allies in the Persian Gulf of about $300 billion in 2015. The Economist and WSJ reports say that for the long term shale oil production and advance in technologies are likely to play a lasting role in keeping oil prices low. At a time when Saudi society is changing, population growing, an older generation likely to transition to a younger generation in government, the cost of the social safety net and ample benefits will remain a concern for the Saudis for the long term.
Saudi oil policy under King Salman in 2015-2016
01/23/2015
Oil policies will be decided by the same group of advisors around King Abdullah. As most advisors, including oil minister Naimi, 79, who conducts OPEC negotiations, are from an older generation, the long term future remains uncertain.
Grouped Articles
New King in Saudi Arabia Unlikely to Alter Oil Policy
New York Times 01/23/2015
Washington Post 01/24/2015
Washington Post 01/24/2015
King Salman of Saudi Arabia Names Mohammed bin Nayef Next in Line of Succession
New York Times 04/29/2015
A Saudi Royal Shake-Up With a Goal of Stability
New York Times 04/29/2015
Young Saudi Royals Rise as Kingdom Tries to Assert Regional Leadership
Wall Street Journal 04/30/2015
Saudi Arabia and oil prices- 2011-2018
02/04/2006
Grouped Articles
Oil Prices Continue Decline, Pressured by Saudi Action to Defend Market Share
New York Times 10/02/2014
OPEC Members’ Discord Adds to Slide in Oil Prices
Wall Street Journal 10/04/2014
Oil Markets Fly Into a Perfect Storm
Wall Street Journal 10/09/2014
Oil companies: Unsustainable energy
Economist 10/14/2014
Oil prices plunge as production rises, fueling concern in OPEC - The Washington Post
Washington Post 10/15/2014
Fall in Oil Prices Poses a Problem for Russia, Iraq and Others
New York Times 10/15/2014
Saudi oil price cuts in November 2014 to increase U.S. market share- with market share decline to 4.6% in August 2014 from 7% in August 2013
11/04/2014
U.S. imports of Saudi oil declined to 894,000 barrels a day from a high of 1.6 million a few months earlier. Saudi price cuts in November 2014 in the U.S. market, while decreasing prices in tight Asian markets, was designed to reverse the drop in market share. NYMEX price of oil dropped below $80 by early Nov. 2014.
Grouped Articles
Saudi Price Cut Upends Oil Market
Wall Street Journal 11/04/2014
Energy Quakes as OPEC Stands Pat
Wall Street Journal 11/28/2014
OPEC’s Weapon of Mass Inaction
Wall Street Journal 11/28/2014
Free Fall in Oil Price Underscores Shift Away From OPEC
New York Times 11/28/2014
Oil Slide Deepens, Ruble Crumbles
Wall Street Journal 12/01/2014
Oil Prices Slip Further After IEA Report
Wall Street Journal 12/12/2014
Saudi price strategy in 2015 and U.S. shale oil drillers
01/10/2015
Grouped Articles
Saudi Arabia’s Cure for Shale Could Entail Shock Therapy
Wall Street Journal 01/10/2015
The new economics of oil: Sheikhs v shale
Economist 01/13/2015
Back to the Future? Oil Replays 1980s Bust
Wall Street Journal 01/14/2015
New King in Saudi Arabia Unlikely to Alter Oil Policy
New York Times 01/23/2015
Oil-Drop Pain Spreads to Saudi Arabia’s Energy Behemoth
Wall Street Journal 02/20/2015
Shale-Oil Producers Ready to Raise Output
Wall Street Journal 05/14/2015
The Economist and WSJ on shale oil, the Saudis and oil prices in 2015 and beyond
01/13/2015
The Economist points out that shale oil production technology is at the early stages with production costs likely to come down from an average of $57 a barrel. With the relatively small costs to start drilling in shale deposits and extensive new shale deposits in the U.S. and other parts of the world, shale is likely to remain a factor in oil production and prices for a long time. Any impact of Saudi oil price cuts on shale oil production is likely to be temporary, as new advances in the technology and efficiency will make shale oil a serious source of oil supplies. Already some efficient shale oil producers have costs below $35 a barrel in the U.S., according to the CEO of CSX Railroad. CSX has dropped the fuel surcharge to improve the competitiveness of shale transported by rail from the Bakken shale region in N. Dakota.
Grouped Articles
The new economics of oil: Sheikhs v shale
Economist 01/13/2015
Back to the Future? Oil Replays 1980s Bust
Wall Street Journal 01/14/2015
New King in Saudi Arabia Unlikely to Alter Oil Policy
New York Times 01/23/2015
Exxon Mobil: Shale to the Chief
Wall Street Journal 03/06/2015
U.S. Producers Ready New Oil Wave
Wall Street Journal 03/14/2015
Shale-Oil Producers Ready to Raise Output
Wall Street Journal 05/14/2015
How the decision to not cut OPEC oil production was reached at the November 2014 Vienna meeting
12/04/2014
The decision leads to a drop in oil prices below $70 for Brent crude by Dec. 2014. A decision by Russia and Rosneft not to cut production, along with cuts by Mexico and the OPEC countries including Venezuela, leads to dropping of a Venezuelan proposal for oil production cuts. This turns out to have been a strategic mistake for Russia as the oil price drops accelerated a decline in the value of the ruble, aggravating a situation made difficult by western sanctions limiting capital access on global capital markets, capital flight, and higher inflation. The decision was presented as a Saudi effort to gain market share in the U.S. which had fallen sharply with increased shale oil production. By taking the Venezuelan proposal into consideration the Saudis maintained OPEC unity, while leaving open the possibility of reevaluating the decision in 2015 after observing the movement in oil price and supplies. The move hurts Iran, Russia and Venezuela which face severe economic constraints. It benefits India which faced severe energy import difficulties.
Grouped Articles
Saudi Arabia Sees Oil Prices Stabilizing Around $60 a Barrel
Wall Street Journal 12/04/2014
Oil Prices Plunge With Brent Crude Below $60
Wall Street Journal 12/16/2014
Why Saudis Decided Not to Prop Up Oil
Wall Street Journal 12/22/2014
Saudi Arabia Vows to Ride Out Oil Price Slump
New York Times 12/21/2014
Oil’s Swift Fall Raises Fortunes of U.S. Abroad
New York Times 12/24/2014
New King in Saudi Arabia Unlikely to Alter Oil Policy
New York Times 01/23/2015
Saudi Arabia's shrinking oil reserve margin in 2012-2014 and the impact on oil prices
04/19/2011
The Saudi oil reserve margin is expected to diminish to zero by 2020, as Saudi domestic oil consumption is increasing by 10% each year. Already Saudi domestic consumption takes up 25% of Saudi production.
Grouped Articles
New King in Saudi Arabia Unlikely to Alter Oil Policy
New York Times 01/23/2015
As Saudis Keep Pumping, Thirst for Domestic Oil Swells
Wall Street Journal 07/04/2015
The End of the Saudi Oil Reserve Margin
Wall Street Journal 04/03/2012
Wall Street Journal 04/13/2012
Saudi Oil Output Seen at Record Pace
Wall Street Journal 07/31/2012
Demand Outlook Places Lid on Oil
Wall Street Journal 08/12/2012
Saudi oil price strategies in 2014-2016
10/15/2014
Grouped Articles
As Oil Prices Plummet, Saudi Arabia Faces a Test of Strategy
New York Times 10/15/2014
Refining Saudi Arabia’s Oil Strategy
Wall Street Journal 11/03/2014
Saudi Price Cut Upends Oil Market
Wall Street Journal 11/04/2014
Energy Quakes as OPEC Stands Pat
Wall Street Journal 11/28/2014
OPEC’s Weapon of Mass Inaction
Wall Street Journal 11/28/2014
Free Fall in Oil Price Underscores Shift Away From OPEC
New York Times 11/28/2014
Social unrest in the Middle East and the price of oil
02/28/2006
The impact of larger social spending in Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries on the price of oil.
Grouped Articles
Fall in Oil Prices Poses a Problem for Russia, Iraq and Others
New York Times 10/15/2014
Saudi Arabia’s Succession Line Is Set, but the Nation’s Path Remains Uncertain
New York Times 01/23/2015
New King in Saudi Arabia Unlikely to Alter Oil Policy
New York Times 01/23/2015
From Venezuela to Iraq to Russia, Oil Price Drops Raise Fears of Unrest
New York Times 08/24/2015
Wall Street Journal 04/18/2011
Americans Are Cautiously Open to Gas Tax Rise, Poll Shows
New York Times 02/28/2006
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