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Weak Oil Prices Curbing Production
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Energy Aspects, London based consultancy, estimates non-OPEC production declines of 700,000 barrels a day, up from previous forecasts of 200,000-300,000 barrels a day. Demand is expected to be higher than supply by June 2016, and drawing down inventory from that time. Agreement to freeze production is uncertain at a Doha meeting of OPEC countries, with Iran planning to increase production from 3.1 million barrels a day currently to 4 million barrels a day. Saudis increased production to 10 million barrels a day in 2015, and Iran is determined to increase its production to the higher level. The price of U.S. oil rebounded to $42.17 by April 2016.
OPEC supply, oil demand and oil prices 2014-2017
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Weak Oil Prices Curbing Production
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Oil prices, financial markets sink after production limit plan fails - The Washington Post
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How American Shale Drillers Flipped OPEC’s Script
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How the Saudis are coping with lower oil prices and revenues- cutting gasoline subsidies and other spending to reduce budget deficits in 2016
12/28/2015
Gasoline prices for some grades of gasoline sold in Saudi gas stations will increase by 50% as the Saudi Finance Ministry copes with dropping oil revenues. The 2016 budget shows adeficit of $87 billion compared to $98 billion in 2015. At this rate Saudi Arabia would exhaust its foreign exchange reserves of $640 billion by 2020. Saudi Arabia has a rapidly growing population which will increase budget pressures and local oil demand. Its defense spending to counter Iran and Russia in the Syria-Iraq conflict and in Yemen also affect spending. Lower oil prices are partly a result of the geopolitical conflict in the region and rivalry betweeen Iran backed by Russia and Sunnis led by the Saudi and Emirates, as well as technology in shale oil production. This comes at a good time for China as it slows, India as it increases its growth rate, and the U.S. and Eurozone as their economies recover from a deep recession, Japan as it improves its economy from low or no growth. For Russia it is seen as away to shift away from imports to domestic industry. For the Saudis an opportuntiy to cut subsidies and improve the productivity of spending.
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Saudi Arabia, Squeezed by Low Oil Prices, Cuts Spending to Shrink Deficit
New York Times 12/28/2015
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Saudi Arabia Keeps Pumping Oil, Despite Financial and Political Risks
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Young Saudis See Cushy Jobs Vanish Along With Nation’s Oil Wealth
New York Times 02/16/2016
Weak Oil Prices Curbing Production
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Saudi oil production policy in 2016, and the prospect of low oil prices for the long term
01/27/2016
With Iran expected to add its production to supplies following lifting of sanctions in 2016, the Saudis would lose market share if they cut production. The Saudis are also on opposite sides with Iran and the Shiite government in Iraq, in the Middle East conflict. Russia is also on the opposite side of this conflict. As a result the Saudis are likely to stick to policy of full production with no cutbacks for the long term. When the Saudis made the policy decision at OPEC meetings in 2014 to not cut back on production as prices declined, it may have been done with the idea of revising policy later on. In 2016 with added Iranian production, this flexibility is diminished. Russia's bombing campaign in Syria, and its ability to withstand sanctions and low oil prices because of a declining ruble, and the cutoff in diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, have put all sides in an economic war of attrition. The Saudis with $630 billion in reserves also see the ability to withstand low oil prices for the long term. Low oil prices help boost economies in the U.S, European Union, Japan, India, China, Turkey, and other countries as the global economy slows down in 2016.
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Saudi Arabia Keeps Pumping Oil, Despite Financial and Political Risks
New York Times 01/27/2016
Oil-Price Poker: Why the Saudis Won’t Fold ‘Em
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Oil Output Freeze Is an Agreement With a Catch
New York Times 02/16/2016
Young Saudis See Cushy Jobs Vanish Along With Nation’s Oil Wealth
New York Times 02/16/2016
Weak Oil Prices Curbing Production
Wall Street Journal 04/13/2016
How OPEC lost control of the oil market - The Washington Post
Washington Post 04/15/2016
Saudi oil price strategies in 2014-2016
10/15/2014
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As Oil Prices Plummet, Saudi Arabia Faces a Test of Strategy
New York Times 10/15/2014
Refining Saudi Arabia’s Oil Strategy
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Saudi Price Cut Upends Oil Market
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Energy Quakes as OPEC Stands Pat
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OPEC’s Weapon of Mass Inaction
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Free Fall in Oil Price Underscores Shift Away From OPEC
New York Times 11/28/2014
The effect of low oil prices on oil exports dependent countries in 2015- Russia, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Ecuador
08/24/2015
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From Venezuela to Iraq to Russia, Oil Price Drops Raise Fears of Unrest
New York Times 08/24/2015
Few in Venezuela Want Bolívars, but No One Can Spare a Dime
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Venezuelan Opposition Wins Congressional Midterm Elections
Wall Street Journal 12/07/2015
Saudi Arabia, Squeezed by Low Oil Prices, Cuts Spending to Shrink Deficit
New York Times 12/28/2015
Oil Plunge Sparks Bankruptcy Concerns
Wall Street Journal 01/12/2016
Oil Prices at $30 Bend Nations, But Which Ones Could Break?
Wall Street Journal 01/13/2016
Iran's oil exports in 2016 as economic sanctions are lifted in Jan. 2016
01/17/2016
Experts say Iran's oil exports will only gradually increase to about 400,000 in 6 months, because it is in Iran's interest not to depress oil prices further than $30 a barrel.
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Oil glut dampens Iran’s hopes for big cash flows as sanctions lift - The Washington Post
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Iran Opening Stirs New Interest From Businesses
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Weak Oil Prices Curbing Production
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Oil prices, financial markets sink after production limit plan fails - The Washington Post
Washington Post 04/18/2016
U.S. Vows to Grant Few Waivers on Iran Sanctions
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U.S. Sanctions Hit Iran’s Plan to Tap Giant Gas Trove
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The role of politics in oil prices for 2016-2017- Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Iran
02/01/2016
Spencer Jakab of the WSJ says the Saudis are not likely to change current policy of full output with no cuts, because of Middle East politics and the conflcit with Iran and Russia.
Grouped Articles
Oil-Price Poker: Why the Saudis Won’t Fold ‘Em
Wall Street Journal 02/01/2016
Weak Oil Prices Curbing Production
Wall Street Journal 04/13/2016
Oil prices, financial markets sink after production limit plan fails - The Washington Post
Washington Post 04/18/2016
Saudi Oil Output Sets Record Despite Global Glut
WSJ 08/10/2016
Trump’s Approach: A Fresh Start or Crazy Reckless?
The New York Times 12/14/2016
US to end Iran oil sanctions exemptions
BBC News 04/22/2019
Oil prices decline to nearly $30 a barrel in January 2016
01/12/2016
Grouped Articles
Oil Plunge Sparks Bankruptcy Concerns
Wall Street Journal 01/12/2016
Weak Oil Prices Curbing Production
Wall Street Journal 04/13/2016
How American Shale Drillers Flipped OPEC’s Script
WSJ 05/24/2017
The Iranian factor in oil prices for 2015-2016
03/17/2015
A nuclear deal reached in 2015 would reduce economic sanctions. The economic sanctions since 2012 have cut Iran's sales of crude to 1-2 million barrels a day, half of normal production levels. The extra crude following a succesful nuclear negotiated deal would keep oil prices low for an extended period.
Grouped Articles
Iran’s Nuclear Deal Could Open Oil Flood
Wall Street Journal 03/17/2015
Iran’s Discount Deal for Global Oil
Wall Street Journal 07/14/2015
The Global Battle for Oil Market Share
Wall Street Journal 12/16/2015
Battered by War, Iraq Now Faces Calamity From Dropping Oil Prices
New York Times 01/31/2016
Weak Oil Prices Curbing Production
Wall Street Journal 04/13/2016
Oil prices, financial markets sink after production limit plan fails - The Washington Post
Washington Post 04/18/2016
The effect of sharp oil price declines in 2015 on Saudi Aramco
02/20/2015
Saudi Aramco is seeking price cuts from suppliers as it faces a sharp decline in oil prices.
Grouped Articles
Oil-Drop Pain Spreads to Saudi Arabia’s Energy Behemoth
Wall Street Journal 02/20/2015
As Saudis Keep Pumping, Thirst for Domestic Oil Swells
Wall Street Journal 07/04/2015
U.S. Oil Prices Hit Fresh Six-Year Low, Dipping Below $40 a Barrel
Wall Street Journal 08/23/2015
From Venezuela to Iraq to Russia, Oil Price Drops Raise Fears of Unrest
New York Times 08/24/2015
OPEC’s Oil Output Strategy Seen Potentially Backfiring
Wall Street Journal 11/10/2015
Saudi Arabia, Squeezed by Low Oil Prices, Cuts Spending to Shrink Deficit
New York Times 12/28/2015
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