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Oil-Price Poker: Why the Saudis Won’t Fold ‘Em
Keywords:
The WSJ's Spencer Jakab points out the role of politics- with Saudi Arabia in a standoff with Iran and Russia in Middle Eastern conflicts- and Saudi policy of full output with no cuts unlikely to change, ensuring lower prices for 2016-2017.
The role of politics in oil prices for 2016-2017- Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Iran
02/01/2016
Spencer Jakab of the WSJ says the Saudis are not likely to change current policy of full output with no cuts, because of Middle East politics and the conflcit with Iran and Russia.
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Oil policies will be decided by the same group of advisors around King Abdullah. As most advisors, including oil minister Naimi, 79, who conducts OPEC negotiations, are from an older generation, the long term future remains uncertain.
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Each side the Saudis, the Russia, and Iran is looking at the drop in oil prices and how much it can absorb using sovereign reserves as lower prices leads to budget deficits in 2015-2016. Russia and Iran face greater problems with western sanctions, and falling currency values exacerbating rising inflation. Other OPEC countries such as Venezuela and Nigeria face a crisis from falling revenues. In the U.S. this will affect shale oil production as less efficient producers shut down plants, with the overall outlook of lower oil prices being positive.
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Saudi oil production policy in 2016, and the prospect of low oil prices for the long term
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With Iran expected to add its production to supplies following lifting of sanctions in 2016, the Saudis would lose market share if they cut production. The Saudis are also on opposite sides with Iran and the Shiite government in Iraq, in the Middle East conflict. Russia is also on the opposite side of this conflict. As a result the Saudis are likely to stick to policy of full production with no cutbacks for the long term. When the Saudis made the policy decision at OPEC meetings in 2014 to not cut back on production as prices declined, it may have been done with the idea of revising policy later on. In 2016 with added Iranian production, this flexibility is diminished. Russia's bombing campaign in Syria, and its ability to withstand sanctions and low oil prices because of a declining ruble, and the cutoff in diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, have put all sides in an economic war of attrition. The Saudis with $630 billion in reserves also see the ability to withstand low oil prices for the long term. Low oil prices help boost economies in the U.S, European Union, Japan, India, China, Turkey, and other countries as the global economy slows down in 2016.
Grouped Articles
Saudi Arabia Keeps Pumping Oil, Despite Financial and Political Risks
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Gasoline prices for some grades of gasoline sold in Saudi gas stations will increase by 50% as the Saudi Finance Ministry copes with dropping oil revenues. The 2016 budget shows adeficit of $87 billion compared to $98 billion in 2015. At this rate Saudi Arabia would exhaust its foreign exchange reserves of $640 billion by 2020. Saudi Arabia has a rapidly growing population which will increase budget pressures and local oil demand. Its defense spending to counter Iran and Russia in the Syria-Iraq conflict and in Yemen also affect spending. Lower oil prices are partly a result of the geopolitical conflict in the region and rivalry betweeen Iran backed by Russia and Sunnis led by the Saudi and Emirates, as well as technology in shale oil production. This comes at a good time for China as it slows, India as it increases its growth rate, and the U.S. and Eurozone as their economies recover from a deep recession, Japan as it improves its economy from low or no growth. For Russia it is seen as away to shift away from imports to domestic industry. For the Saudis an opportuntiy to cut subsidies and improve the productivity of spending.
Grouped Articles
Saudi Arabia, Squeezed by Low Oil Prices, Cuts Spending to Shrink Deficit
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Oil Prices at $30 Bend Nations, But Which Ones Could Break?
Wall Street Journal 01/13/2016
Saudi Arabia Keeps Pumping Oil, Despite Financial and Political Risks
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Wall Street Journal 02/01/2016
Young Saudis See Cushy Jobs Vanish Along With Nation’s Oil Wealth
New York Times 02/16/2016
Weak Oil Prices Curbing Production
Wall Street Journal 04/13/2016
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