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Saudi Arabia Keeps Pumping Oil, Despite Financial and Political Risks
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Khalid al-Falih, chairman of Saudi Aramco, says at the World Economic Forum in Davos, on Jan. 26, 2016- "If prices continue to be low, we will be able to withstand it for a long, long time." With $630 billion in foreign currency reserves the Saudis are following a long term policy of full production. Gasoline subsidies are being reduced, IPO of Saudi Aramco being discussed to raise additional capital, and other steps being taken to plan for long term oil prices. Flexibility for a change in policy is diminished with the addition of Iranian oil production to supplies following the lifting of sanctions. The events in 2015-2016 of Russian bombing campaign in Syria, and the cutoff of diplomatic relations with Iran, have worsened the standoff with Iran and Russia in the Middle East conflict. As a result it appears that the Saudis are settling down for a long term policy of full production which would keep oil prices low for the long term. India, Japan, China, the U.S. and the European Union, Turkey and other countries benefit from low oil prices when their economies need a boost in 2016-2017.
Saudi oil production policy in 2016, and the prospect of low oil prices for the long term
01/27/2016
With Iran expected to add its production to supplies following lifting of sanctions in 2016, the Saudis would lose market share if they cut production. The Saudis are also on opposite sides with Iran and the Shiite government in Iraq, in the Middle East conflict. Russia is also on the opposite side of this conflict. As a result the Saudis are likely to stick to policy of full production with no cutbacks for the long term. When the Saudis made the policy decision at OPEC meetings in 2014 to not cut back on production as prices declined, it may have been done with the idea of revising policy later on. In 2016 with added Iranian production, this flexibility is diminished. Russia's bombing campaign in Syria, and its ability to withstand sanctions and low oil prices because of a declining ruble, and the cutoff in diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, have put all sides in an economic war of attrition. The Saudis with $630 billion in reserves also see the ability to withstand low oil prices for the long term. Low oil prices help boost economies in the U.S, European Union, Japan, India, China, Turkey, and other countries as the global economy slows down in 2016.
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Saudi Arabia Keeps Pumping Oil, Despite Financial and Political Risks
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Karen Elliott House, a widely respected expert on Saudi Arabia, provides an exceptional assessment of the Saudi situation and the Middle East as the Obama administration reaches a final agreement on a nuclear deal with Iran in July 2015, which involves unfreezing of about $100 billion in assets by the end of 2015, and the removal of economic sanctions. It also includes a lifting of the arms embargo on Iran. She points out that the Saudis have few options in the short term, and how this could change the situation in the Middle East if Iran uses funds to support proxies in the Middle East.
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Oil policies will be decided by the same group of advisors around King Abdullah. As most advisors, including oil minister Naimi, 79, who conducts OPEC negotiations, are from an older generation, the long term future remains uncertain.
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Gasoline prices for some grades of gasoline sold in Saudi gas stations will increase by 50% as the Saudi Finance Ministry copes with dropping oil revenues. The 2016 budget shows adeficit of $87 billion compared to $98 billion in 2015. At this rate Saudi Arabia would exhaust its foreign exchange reserves of $640 billion by 2020. Saudi Arabia has a rapidly growing population which will increase budget pressures and local oil demand. Its defense spending to counter Iran and Russia in the Syria-Iraq conflict and in Yemen also affect spending. Lower oil prices are partly a result of the geopolitical conflict in the region and rivalry betweeen Iran backed by Russia and Sunnis led by the Saudi and Emirates, as well as technology in shale oil production. This comes at a good time for China as it slows, India as it increases its growth rate, and the U.S. and Eurozone as their economies recover from a deep recession, Japan as it improves its economy from low or no growth. For Russia it is seen as away to shift away from imports to domestic industry. For the Saudis an opportuntiy to cut subsidies and improve the productivity of spending.
Grouped Articles
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Saudi Arabia Keeps Pumping Oil, Despite Financial and Political Risks
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The decision leads to a drop in oil prices below $70 for Brent crude by Dec. 2014. A decision by Russia and Rosneft not to cut production, along with cuts by Mexico and the OPEC countries including Venezuela, leads to dropping of a Venezuelan proposal for oil production cuts. This turns out to have been a strategic mistake for Russia as the oil price drops accelerated a decline in the value of the ruble, aggravating a situation made difficult by western sanctions limiting capital access on global capital markets, capital flight, and higher inflation. The decision was presented as a Saudi effort to gain market share in the U.S. which had fallen sharply with increased shale oil production. By taking the Venezuelan proposal into consideration the Saudis maintained OPEC unity, while leaving open the possibility of reevaluating the decision in 2015 after observing the movement in oil price and supplies. The move hurts Iran, Russia and Venezuela which face severe economic constraints. It benefits India which faced severe energy import difficulties.
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The Economist and WSJ on shale oil, the Saudis and oil prices in 2015 and beyond
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The Economist points out that shale oil production technology is at the early stages with production costs likely to come down from an average of $57 a barrel. With the relatively small costs to start drilling in shale deposits and extensive new shale deposits in the U.S. and other parts of the world, shale is likely to remain a factor in oil production and prices for a long time. Any impact of Saudi oil price cuts on shale oil production is likely to be temporary, as new advances in the technology and efficiency will make shale oil a serious source of oil supplies. Already some efficient shale oil producers have costs below $35 a barrel in the U.S., according to the CEO of CSX Railroad. CSX has dropped the fuel surcharge to improve the competitiveness of shale transported by rail from the Bakken shale region in N. Dakota.
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The standoff between Saudi Arabia and Russia/ Iran that created the prospect of low oil prices for the long term - (1) Saudis and Russian resilience in the face of low oil prices
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Linked Articles
Saudi Arabia Keeps Pumping Oil, Despite Financial and Political Risks
New York Times 01/27/2016
Russian Oil: Output Grows as Prospects Shrink
Wall Street Journal 01/25/2016
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