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Europe's Currency Road to Nowhere
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Austin Goolsbee says the overvalued currencies of Italy, Greece, Spain and Portugal and the lack of growth under austerity plans proposed for these countries create impossible odds for resolution of the financial problems in these countries. The German position is that profligate spending and irresponsible accounting in Greece, and structural issues in Italy ranging from entitlement spending to tax evasion, need to be resolved.
The twin problems of lack of growth under austerity plans and overvalued currencies of Italy, Greece, Spain and Portugal
06/24/2011
The twin problems of lack of growth and overvalued currencies under the solutions of austerity plans without debt reduction and a single euro currency create impossible odds for a resolution of the eurozone financial crisis. Germany's insistence on tough austerity measures, European banks delaying restructuring of bad loans similar to the U.S. Brady plan, failure of politicians in Italy and Greece to take early action, and small steps by policymakers, are compounding the effects of the eurozone crisis.
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The European Union agreement for the eurozone debt crisis in Greece and other countries in July 2011
06/30/2011
The first really workable agreement was finally reached in Brussels after a year of sharp differences between the ECB, EU leaders, Greece government and opposition parties, and leaders of France, Germany and other EU countries. Fears of contagion for Italy and Spain and a sense of the dangers to the EU and the Euro currency itself led to the agreement, with the EU governments coming up with the financial support which will be channelled through the European Financial Stability Facility. The debt ceiling crisis in the U.S. may have added to the urgency to reduce nervousness in the markets about a breakdown in EU governance along with that in the U.S.
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The Default option in the Irish banking crisis.
11/23/2010
The option of default or a solution that involves a haircut for bondholders, for Ireland or other euro-countries facing debt crisis.
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'Contagion' and Other Euro Myths
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Ireland's Not-So-Grand Bargain Options
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Ireland's Bonds Downgraded to Junk
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Plan for Greece Favors Creditors
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Analysis by The Economist and other expert opinion in 2010 of the economic prospects for Europe and the U.S.
01/11/2010
The Economist looks at the near term trends- unemployment not down as much in Britain in August and consumer spending holding up in Britain- as evidence a recovery is looming. And it cites the Suppy Managment Index up slightly in the US. Most other experts see a difficult situation in 2011 as the stimulus fades and local governments cut back- economists such as Stiglitz, Shiller, Krugman, Feldstein and others, and businessmen like Malone.
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Similarities between the experience of Argentina in 2001 and the experience of Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain in 2010-2012
12/09/2010
The financial crisis in the euro-zone and a similar situation that prevailed in Argentina in 2001. Experts from that period are convinced that euro-zone bondholders will have to accept securities offering less interest and maturing over a longer period.
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Greek Government Bonds Pay Off Big for Fund Managers
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If Greece Defaults, Imagine Argentina, but Much Worse
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The logjam between the bondholders (mostly French and German banks) and the German government- 2010-2012
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The roots of the Eurozone financial crisis go back to the issue of who should pay for the excess lending of French and German banks. Will it be the German taxpayer or the banks that took excessive risks? German financial experts, the German government and parliament, German public opinion, are all adamantly opposed to letting the banks off without sharing at least 50% of the costs of a bailout. A review done by the European Commission in coordination witht he IMF and the ECB, shows that from May 2010 (the date for the inception of the aid program to Greece) to September 2011, $52 billion of the $91 billion loaned to Greece went to pay bondholders for bonds that came due. The July 2011 EU agreement for Greece called for 21% of losses to be allocated to the bondholders. The German government is pushing for 50% and German parlamentary leaders in Merkel's party are balking at anything less.
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Policy âTroikaâ for Europe Financial Woes at Odds
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Most Greek bailout money has gone to pay off bondholders - The Washington Post
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Dexiaâs Collapse in Europe Points to Global Risks
New York Times 10/22/2011
European Officials Shaping Greek Rescue and Effort to Aid Banks
New York Times 10/22/2011
Allan Meltzer's soluton for the financial crisis facing euro currency countries Portugal, Spain, Italy, Ireland and Greece
05/26/2010
Meltzer says a new currency union should be setup for the northern countries France, Germany, and others who commit to financial discipline and fiscally binding arrangements. The euro currency countries such as Italy and Greece should devalue their currency to fix gaps between wages and productivity in their countries. At a later stage these countries could be readmitted to the new currency union under strict fiscally binding arrangements with enforceable sanctions.
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Germany reaps rewards of entitlement cuts - The Washington Post
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IMF Chief's Change of Tune on Bank Capital
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Austerity in Italy May Not End Its Jobs-for-Votes System
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Bloomberg Business Week's Peter Coy calls for debt forgiveness- creditor haircuts for sovereign debt in Europe, and bank writedowns of debt in the U.S. housing market
08/10/2011
Peter Coy of Bloomberg Business Week calls for debt forgiveness in the August 2011 issue of Business Week. Stretching out the debt issues without writedowns says Coy, only leads to austerity programs, stagnant growth and drags the issues out over many years. Better solutions can be found by starting anew with writedowns now and arrangements to make this possible, and returning to growth sooner. What about moral hazard? There is moral hazard in letting the banks bear no cost for reckless lending decisions, they are as likely to repeat this behaviour says Coy, as Greece or the underwater mortgage borrower in the U.S., if they did not have to bear the consequences of their decisions.
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John Cochrane and other experts give a no-nonsense view of the bailouts and the financial crises facing Europe
12/02/2010
Insights that the real problem is short term debt financing. The need for the EU to insist on long tem debt financing for governments in Europe. The solution for this crisis is not in bailouts of Greece, Spain, Italy and so on, but to swap the short term debt for debt with longer term maturities, and for bondholders to take a haircut. Similiar to the Brady Plan for Latin America in the late 1980's. The bailout of Ireland in reality not a bailout of Ireland, as a bailout of German and British banks that made risky loans to Irish banks and the Irish government. The U.S. government's debt also tilted to short term debt and problems similar to European problems.
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Running the euro zone: Pact of uncompetitiveness
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Europe Needs to Apportion Pain
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The Wall Street Journal's editorials on solutions to the Eurozone financial crisis- 2011-2012
07/13/2011
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Europe's Currency Road to Nowhere
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In euro zone crisis, Germany is the reluctant savior - The Washington Post
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Expert opinion on the issuance of Eurobonds by the ECB to support Italy, Spain, Portugal, and Greece
11/22/2011
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German Court to Weigh Bond Buying by E.C.B.
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European Central Bank Head, Draghi, Has New Powers
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Amid crisis, Italy confronts a culture of tax evasion - The Washington Post
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Europe's Currency Road to Nowhere
Wall Street Journal 11/29/2011
Simon Johnson and other experts on the debt crisis in Europe.
04/15/2010
Simon Johnson, Peter Boone and other experts unravel the debt crisis in Greece and in other European countries to give a lucid explanation of what happened and what to expect.
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Greece, the Latest and Greatest Bubble.
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As Greek Drama Plays Out, Where Is Europe?
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BusinessWeek 04/15/2010
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Antonis Samaras of Greece's New Democracy Party and the European Union programs for Greece
07/05/2011
Samaras says the tax increases will hurt the Greece economy and the shrinking Greek economy under the current program will lead to the failure of the E.U.'s program for Greece.
Grouped Articles
EU Dismisses IMF's Criticism On Greek Bailout
Wall Street Journal 06/07/2013
New York Times 06/23/2013
Fractious Greek Government Splits
Wall Street Journal 06/25/2013
Greek Draft Budget Sees Primary Surplus, Return to Growth
Wall Street Journal 10/14/2013
Athens's Love Affair With the Euro Persists
Wall Street Journal 11/04/2013
Next Hurdle for Greece's Economy: Its Own Political Uncertainty
New York Times 10/13/2014
Expert opinion on the problem with German insistence on tough austerity measures in Greece, Italy and Spain and Portugal
11/28/2011
Without economic growth the problems of debt reduction become more difficult to tackle. Austerity measures may lead to shrinking economies in these countries creating larger deficits.
Linked Articles
New York Times 11/28/2011
Europe's Currency Road to Nowhere
Wall Street Journal 11/29/2011
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