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European Leaders Seek Bold Debt Deal, Despite Hurdles
Keywords:
The German and French positions on solutions to the eurozone debt crisis are in conflict. As a result the negotiations between France's Sarkozy and Germany's Merkel are deadlocked. The basic differences revolve around three basic issues. Germany wants to see a lasting solution in which Greece debt is restructured so that banks and other creditors that loaned money to Greece voluntarily take losses so that Greece's debt can be reduced to a sustainable level of no more than 50% of what it is now. France, the ECB and the French banks do not want to restructure Greek debt in this manner beyond the 21% reduction in value of debt under the July 2011 agreement. The voluntary reduction in Greek debt by the banks would prevent a default by Greece and unsettling of the financial markets. France fears market contagion from the restructuring of Greece debt that would place pressure on French banks as the value of the Greek, Spanish and Italian sovereign debt French banks hold declines in value. That would require a major recapitalization of French banks and additional cuts to the French budget. Additional twists to the negotiations are that Sarkozy is unpopular in France with elections six months away. For this reason Sarkozy would prefer to recapitalize after 9 months. A way to get around the need for more deficit cutting (austerity measures) in France, is for the European Financial Stability Fund to be able to borrow money from the European Central bank. The ECB can print euros in that situation. Germany's chancellor Merkel has to consider German public opinion and experts from the German central bank, who are adamantly against using the ECB to print money and Germany committing itself to bankrolling most of the effort. Germany wants France to use its own money to recapitalize French banks, with Germany only responsible for recapitalizing its banks. Merkel told her parliamentary caucus in Berlin that "the path is closed for using the European Central Bank to ease liquidity problems." Because of Germany's insistence on financial soundness for any solution, France being in the more difficult financial position and Sarkozy facing elections willing to come up with a short term fix, and the unwillingness of French and German banks to take the losses necessary for a lasting solution, the Germans see a real solution taking a long time.
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Books on the euro-zone financial crisis of 2010-2012
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The book "Greece's 'Odious Debt': The Looting of the Hellenic Republic," is a frank and insightful acccount of the Greek debt crisis by a hedge fund manager for emerging markets, Jason Manalopoulos. He asks timely and relevant questions which can be posed for Greece, the U.S. and other countries.
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The views of Axel Weber, former head of the Bundesbank, on the ECB's role and the need to address the underlying problems in Greece
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Axel Weber says the European Central Bank should stick to its mandate of setting monetary policy and not get too involved in the crisis in Greece. He says Greece's problems are structural and may take a long time to resolve, as much as 30 years. The European leaders have to decide on solving the underlying problems so that they cut the losses and restart, by offering debt guarantees and using partial creditor haircuts. Simply giving additional loans -which can never be repaid considering the debt of 350 billion euros ($496 billion)- or addding short term liquidity for a 3-5 year solution as European leaders have done so far, won't work.
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