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Next Hurdle for Greece's Economy: Its Own Political Uncertainty
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Left party Syriza did better than the government parties in the EU elections. A new parliamentary election would have to be called if prime minister Samaras cannot find the 180 votes needed to elect a new president in Feb. 2014. Syriza is calling for writeoff of some of the massive 318.6 billion euros of debt owed, 85% of it to France, Germany and other foreign governments and IMF. To offset Syriza's popularity Samaras is likely to use the improved confidence of investors in Greece to raise funds on capital markets, and access funds from a Stability Fund. By exiting the IMF program early and not taking 12 billion euros of IMF funds due for 2015-2016, Samaras can take independent steps to revive the Greek economy and reduce the burden of cuts. Greece will run a primary budget surplus before interest payments in 2014, as it did in 2013. GDP is down about 25% and unemployment is at 26%. Anger in the early years reflected in Athens riots, is now replaced with anguish and despair among ordinary Greeks and some public suicides. The current debt repayments is for debt to be repaid to IMF in 10 years and the EU loans in 32 years, with 10 years of interest payments at 1.5%. Even then the debt is already at 178% of GDP, way above the initial target of 124% of GDP set by IMF-EU for 2020. As a backup strategy German officials including Asmussen and Schauble, and ECB's Draghi are meeting with Mr. Tsipras of Syriza to ensure a smooth transition if this becomes necessary, without the uncertainty in financial markets created by earlier Greece elections.
Elections to the European parliament in 2014, local elections, and the coalition government of Antonis Samaras
05/19/2014
Gains by the Syriza party in Greece's elections for the European parliament and in local elections in Athens in 2014.
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Alexis Tsipras, of the Coalition of the Radical Left, or Syriza party in Greece in 2012 elections and EU elections of 2014
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The agreement which will lead to release of 10 billion euros from the EU and IMF focusses on growth oriented steps, aid to homeless, government employees hit hardest, and boost to incomes. The negotiations took 7 months.
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The new administration of Antonis Samaras in Greece with finance minister Yannis Stournaras- June 2012
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Stournaras, say experts, is a good choice because of the vast expertise and fresh ideas he bring to revive Greece's economy.
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Support for the ruling New Democracy Party in European Parliament elections is about 19.5%, and for Pasok only 5.5%, for centre left Syria 20.2%, and new centrist River Party 8.8%, according to polls in April 2014. Both German chancellor Merkel and New Democracy leader Samaras are sensitve to the situation and keen on preserving the tangible gains made so far under the year old Samaras government.
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Faces of austerity protests in Athens, Greece, in 2014
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Greece Wanted to Reframe Europe’s Austerity Debate. It Failed.
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Samaras says the tax increases will hurt the Greece economy and the shrinking Greek economy under the current program will lead to the failure of the E.U.'s program for Greece.
Grouped Articles
EU Dismisses IMF's Criticism On Greek Bailout
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New York Times 06/23/2013
Fractious Greek Government Splits
Wall Street Journal 06/25/2013
Greek Draft Budget Sees Primary Surplus, Return to Growth
Wall Street Journal 10/14/2013
Athens's Love Affair With the Euro Persists
Wall Street Journal 11/04/2013
Next Hurdle for Greece's Economy: Its Own Political Uncertainty
New York Times 10/13/2014
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