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The U.S. Economy: Stuck in Neutral
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"There is'nt another planet to export to," is what Paul Krugman of the New York Times says, when referring to the impossibility of all countries keeping up exports and reducing imports at the same time. In crises similiar to what the US faces today, countries have increased exports as a way to stage an economic recovery. But this time countries are depressing their currencies to gain or preserve a large share of global demand achieved through high exports. China has resisted demands for a significant revaluation of the yuan, and persists in efforts in currrency markets to keep the value of the yuan low. This cuts off one avenue of recovery. Bloomberg Business Week and Bloomberg News interviewed Edmund Phelps, Jan Hatzius, Krugman, and other economists, with the idea of figuring out how the US could stage an economic recovery. Krugman is not optimistic, considering the effects of the financial crisis being really protracted. Krugman points out that when comparing the US currently to the eaarly stages of Japan's lost decade, the US is doing worse. Unemployment is worse, and overall he says, a weaker policy response. And he says Japan is still a depressed fragile economy 18 years after its financial crisis. Jan Hatzius of Goldman Sachs, predicts that the unemployment rate will rise back to 10% in early 2011, with a 30% chance that the economy will fall back into a recession. He says that in the postwar economy, there has never been an increase in the unemployment rate of one third of one percentage point that did not result in a recession. Phelps and Hatzius see one way the US could stage a recovery is with replacement old structures and equipmet as wear and tear and obsolescence takes place. Phelps sees the possibility of technological innovation resultig in a new burst of activity. Robert Gordon of Northwestern University, is less optimistic about this, and predicts a lower growth rate of 1.5% over the next 20 years.
Growing Risks for the U.S. Economy in 2010-2012.
01/04/2010
Risks of another hit from losses on home equity loans to bank balance sheets in latter part of 2010. The situation with local and state governments in the USA cutting back significantly. The situation in Europe and an overheating Chinese economy.
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The Home-Equity Hurt Ahead for Banks
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Beware a Bernanke-Fueled Market Bubble
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Don't Rule Out a Double Dip Recession
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Real Disposable Income: Bad News for Democrats?
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Analysis by The Economist and other expert opinion in 2010 of the economic prospects for Europe and the U.S.
01/11/2010
The Economist looks at the near term trends- unemployment not down as much in Britain in August and consumer spending holding up in Britain- as evidence a recovery is looming. And it cites the Suppy Managment Index up slightly in the US. Most other experts see a difficult situation in 2011 as the stimulus fades and local governments cut back- economists such as Stiglitz, Shiller, Krugman, Feldstein and others, and businessmen like Malone.
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Brazil's north-east: Catching up in a hurry
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The world economy: The odd decouple
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The U.S. Economy: Stuck in Neutral
BusinessWeek 10/14/2010
BusinessWeek 10/14/2010
America's economy: Not by monetary policy alone
Economist 10/28/2010
Robert Gordon and other experts on the economic growth prospects for 2010 and into 2011.
04/30/2010
Gordon sees a weakening in growth from the 3.24% growth in 1st quarter 2010 (BEA numbers) as exports are not holding up and state and local government spending is deteriorating rapidly. The inventory change numbers which were signifcant this quarter as businesses replaced equipment and IT, will be winding down in size.
Grouped Articles
At Least 50 of Cityâs Senior Centers Expected to Close to Save Money
New York Times 04/30/2010
Business Spending Propels Recovery
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Guest Contribution: Gordon Outlines Pessimist, Optimist Takes on GDP
Wall Street Journal 04/30/2010
Economists React: GDP Indicates Road Ahead Still Bumpy
Wall Street Journal 04/30/2010
Real Disposable Income: Bad News for Democrats?
BusinessWeek 06/03/2010
Wall Street Journal 06/12/2010
A new Industrial Policy for the U.S. after 2010 and the Economic Crisis.
02/08/2010
Hofmeister and others call for a new Industrial Policy for the USA.
Grouped Articles
How to Fix the Economy: An Expert Panel
BusinessWeek 09/16/2010
The U.S. Needs an Industrial Policy
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New York Times 10/10/2010
The U.S. Economy: Stuck in Neutral
BusinessWeek 10/14/2010
Washington Post 09/06/2011
Stimulus and the Depression: The Untold Story
Wall Street Journal 09/26/2011
The American economy in 2010-2012: Looking ahead the risks and possibilities.
10/01/2009
Housing, hiring, the strength of the stimulus and capital spending will determine what 2010-2012 looks like for the U.S. economy.
Grouped Articles
Michelin Issues Cautious Outlook
Wall Street Journal 10/01/2009
2010 Looks 'Highly Uncertain,' Zoellick Says
Wall Street Journal 10/02/2009
Economist 10/01/2009
Economist 10/01/2009
Economist 10/01/2009
Hiring, Business Investment and Other Big Variables That Will Drive 2010 Economy
Wall Street Journal 12/28/2009
Martin Feldstein on the risks for the American Economy after failures in the Obama Economic plan.
09/12/2007
Failures to address problems on the housing front, especialy the problems for 15 million homeowners under water- see the links to opeds by Feldstein suggesting focus on these issues throughout 2008-2009. And the focus on health care which diverted attention from this problem and the problem facing bad loans in commercial real estate. Other problems are failure to get bank lending up for businesses. And the failure of Obama health care plans to control the increase in the nation's surging health care spending, instead increasing the deficit to unsustainable levels. Public sentiment as shown in WSJ/NBC polls confirm Feldstein's sense of the situation.
Grouped Articles
New York Times 12/08/2013
From President Obama, Economic Clarity but Little Courage
Washington Post 04/15/2009
Wall Street Journal 09/12/2007
How to Stop the Mortgage Crisis
Wall Street Journal 03/07/2008
Wall Street Journal 02/20/2008
Enough With the Interest Rate Cuts
Wall Street Journal 04/15/2008
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