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The cracks spread and widen
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European banks hold $147 billion of Portugal's assets and $117 billion of Greece's assets. The banking systems of Euopean lending countries are heavily exposed in the event of a sovereign default which is why it is in the self interest of Germany and France to come up with an aid package that restores confidence in financial markets, to avoid a direct hit to their banking system. Because of the ineptitude of Europe's decisionmakers, especially Chancellor Angela Merkel, private investors will not play the role in helping roll over Greek debt at tolerable interest rates that they could have played. With the now larger aid package of $160 billon there are still concerns from other angles. One is that debts of Greece will continue to grow- hence the three year aid plan. Analysis by the Economist suggests that the Greek government debt would rise to 149% of GDP by 2014 even with an aggressive budget deficit reduction of 12 percentage points (excluding interest costs). This assumes an interest cost of 5% in the aid package. In an average year Greece needs to refinance 40 billon euros of its debt and $70 billon is needed to cover cumulative budget deficits till 2014, hence the need for the IMF to step in and the nervousness in financial markets.
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12/10/2009
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Economist 04/29/2010
Greece: prospect of default on debt.
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The Worst May Not Be Over for Europe
New York Times 12/31/2009
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The European Union plans for aid to Greece.
02/10/2010
Resistance in Germany to bailing out Greece.
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Germany Clears Rescue for Greece
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Athens's Love Affair With the Euro Persists
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Wall Street Journal 02/12/2010
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Berlin's Wall Around Greek Ruins?
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