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Oil & Gas Groups


How the Saudis are coping with lower oil prices and revenues- cutting gasoline subsidies and other spending to reduce budget deficits in 2016

12/28/2015

Gasoline prices for some grades of gasoline sold in Saudi gas stations will increase by 50% as the Saudi Finance Ministry copes with dropping oil revenues. The 2016 budget shows adeficit of $87 billion compared to $98 billion in 2015. At this rate Saudi Arabia would exhaust its foreign exchange reserves of $640 billion by 2020. Saudi Arabia has a rapidly growing population which will increase budget pressures and local oil demand. Its defense spending to counter Iran and Russia in the Syria-Iraq conflict and in Yemen also affect spending. Lower oil prices are partly a result of the geopolitical conflict in the region and rivalry betweeen Iran backed by Russia and Sunnis led by the Saudi and Emirates, as well as technology in shale oil production. This comes at a good time for China as it slows, India as it increases its growth rate, and the U.S. and Eurozone as their economies recover from a deep recession, Japan as it improves its economy from low or no growth. For Russia it is seen as away to shift away from imports to domestic industry. For the Saudis an opportuntiy to cut subsidies and improve the productivity of spending.

Grouped Articles

Saudi Arabia, Squeezed by Low Oil Prices, Cuts Spending to Shrink Deficit

New York Times 12/28/2015

Oil Prices at $30 Bend Nations, But Which Ones Could Break?

Wall Street Journal 01/13/2016

Saudi Arabia Keeps Pumping Oil, Despite Financial and Political Risks

New York Times 01/27/2016

Oil-Price Poker: Why the Saudis Won’t Fold ‘Em

Wall Street Journal 02/01/2016

Young Saudis See Cushy Jobs Vanish Along With Nation’s Oil Wealth

New York Times 02/16/2016

Weak Oil Prices Curbing Production

Wall Street Journal 04/13/2016

The global economy in 2015-2016- slowing growth in China, Brazil, Russia and Turkey, as growth picks up in the U.S. and India, and Europe emerges from the eurozone debt crisis

11/29/2015

High debt to GDP ratios in China, Brazil and Turkey lead to slowing growth. India is the exception in emerging markets as foreign investment increases and GDP growth is above 7%, with a boost from halving of oil prices. Europe sees the need for more quantitative easing, and the U.S. makes a slow recovery. Russia may see an improvement after a large devaluation of the ruble. Argentina's prospects are seen as improving with a change in government. Canada sees a change from the drift in the last years of the Harper government and the hollowing out of the industrial sector, with the election of Justin Trudeau. Overall the situation in 2015-2016 is a marked improvement compared to ten years earlier in 2005, as debt issues are tackled seriously in Europe and the U.S. and governance in the private sector improves.

Grouped Articles

Tensions With Russia Add to a Chill in Turkey’s Economy

New York Times 11/29/2015

China Unveils Economic Blueprint for 2016

Wall Street Journal 12/22/2015

Oil Prices at $30 Bend Nations, But Which Ones Could Break?

Wall Street Journal 01/13/2016

Putin’s self-destructing economy - The Washington Post

Washington Post 01/18/2016

Russian Economy Stumbles as Stocks and Oil Prices Fall

New York Times 01/21/2016

Emerging-Market Debt: How Big a Threat Is It?

Wall Street Journal 02/16/2016

Simple facts about China in 2015

09/23/2015

China's per person GNP is about one fourth the U.S. on a purchasing parity basis which covers the cheaper price of goods and services in developing countries. But this does not reflect the wealth distribution which is highly skewed geographically to regions on the coast and around cities such as Beijing and Shanghai, and in the population with wealth concentrated with the people in the top 20% of the population. As a result most people in China make only a small fraction of what Americans make. Wealth and incomes are also skewed in the U.S. since 2000 but not as much as in China. This is why China as a whole may not have arrived at middle income status. The other characteristics of China are the huge focus on infrastructure building through state run companies and banks, use of a large portion of the world's commodity resources, which is now winding down as China shifts to a more consumer driven economy. The boom years of growth are now behind China, and China faces further hurdles to growth in the next decade with the deb to GDP ratio estimated at about 270%. The Communist Party of China sees itself as the only way for China to continue the path to modernization and growth.

Grouped Articles

7 simple questions and answers to understand China and the U.S. - The Washington Post

Washington Post 09/23/2015

The relatively small effects of slowing growth in China on the U.S. economy in 2015, and some positive factors

09/08/2015

WIth only 1% of U.S. GDP related to U.S. exports to China, and Chinese direct foreign investment in the U.S. being less than 1% of all foreign investment in the U.S., China's slowdown is not likely to affect the U.S., according to Easwar Prasad, former IMF expert on China. Positive factors are the slower growth in prices of manufactured products imported from China, the lower prices of commodities such as oil, copper and other metals for an extended period, and bigger markets in China for U.S. service industries, internet and entertainment as Chinese consumer spending plays a larger role in China's GDP.

Grouped Articles

China Slowdown Could End Up Being Good News for U.S.

Wall Street Journal 09/08/2015

Final 3rd-Quarter Estimate Shows U.S. Economy Growing 2%

New York Times 12/22/2015

Moody’s Cuts Its China Rating for the First Time Since 1989

WSJ 05/24/2017

Trade Fight With U.S. Complicates China’s Campaign to Contain Debt

WSJ 06/19/2018

Brazil's repeated boom-bust cycles since 1973, and lost decades

08/28/2015

Brazil, Russia, Australia, Canada, are caught up in the commodities bust with dependence on commodities exports. Brazil faces a lost decade because in adddition to the sharp drop in commodities prices, it also has to tackle large debt and capital outflows, a credit card binge of households cutting into consumer spending, and problems with manufacturing from the period of overvalued currency. A serious long term problem as bottlenecks to growth come from a weak educational system and infrastructure that were not tackled in the boom years. The social safety net and the currency are supported by the foreign currency reserves fund of $397 billion, a lesson learned from the 1997 financial crisis.

Grouped Articles

How Brazil’s China-Driven Commodities Boom Went Bust

Wall Street Journal 08/28/2015

Gloom on Brazil Finances Deepens

Wall Street Journal 12/17/2015

Australia Finds Something Else to Export to China

Wall Street Journal 03/03/2016

Dilma Rousseff’s Former Supporters in Brazil Express Disillusionment

New York Times 04/16/2016

Fight to Impeach Brazil’s Leader Tears at Fabric of Daily Life

New York Times 04/15/2016

Globalization: Capitalism Should Be Nicer | ZEIT ONLINE

ZEIT ONLINE 07/29/2016

China's consumption of metals and other commodities in 2015 and expected demand with slower growth

08/26/2015

As producers of commodities that aggressively expanded during the boom years adjust production to reflect slower growth in China, supply should adjust to new levels of demand. Experts say the size of the Chinese economy means it will still require a steady supply of metals and other commodities. In the long run, as the Indian economy takes off some of the new demand from India could fill in for slower growth from China.

Grouped Articles

China Remains a Key Commodities Player, Despite Waning Appetites

Wall Street Journal 08/26/2015


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