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The Global Battle for Oil Market Share
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Daniel Yergin of consultancy firm IHS describes the geopolitical disputes in the Middle East between Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Iran that are leading to likely continued oversupply of oil in 2016, keeping prices in the $30-$40 range. Saudi Arabia is not likely to change its policy of going after market share, Venezuela is affected but lacks a voice in OPEC decisions, Russia continues its policies in Syria and Iraq under the Putin government affecting other Sunni states, and Iran following the lifting of sanctions is likely to ramp up supply to make up for its lost market share- all leading to an extended period of low prices. This situation benefits China, the European Union countries, India, Turkey and the U.S. in a period of slow economic growth in 2015-2016. Russia looks to use this period of low oil prices to shift to domestic industry after a period of rising imports when oil prices were high. The Saudis seeing their interests in the region threatened by Iran and Russia, and dissatisfied with the foreign policy of president Obama, see a policy of pushing for market share as appropriate in the current geopolitics of the region.
An unambiguous positive effect on the global economy of the 2014-2015 decline in oil prices
12/08/2014
The positive effect on the U.S. measured in percentage of GDP of savings from oil import bills- 0.5%. For Germany 0.8%, Japan 1.2%, China 0.8%, India 1.8%, South Korea 2.4%. A much needed boost for Japan, India, China, and the eurozone at a critical time of flagging economic growth.
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OPEC's loss of pricing power in 2015
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Saudi Arabia acting as a swing producer adjusted oil production to keep prices from falling in the period before 2015. Following the sharp drop in oil prices to below $50 in early 2015, prices steadied to about $65 for Brent crude in June 2015. The Saudi oil minister Naimi says he takes the long view on oil prices, and decides to continue Saudi production at earlier levels in June 2015. In a period of declining oil prices the Saudis and OPEC continue to produce oil at the same levels as before.
Grouped Articles
OPEC’s Pricing Leverage Is Weakening
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OPEC’s Problem: There Is No Minister of Shale
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Saudi oil price cuts in November 2014 to increase U.S. market share- with market share decline to 4.6% in August 2014 from 7% in August 2013
11/04/2014
U.S. imports of Saudi oil declined to 894,000 barrels a day from a high of 1.6 million a few months earlier. Saudi price cuts in November 2014 in the U.S. market, while decreasing prices in tight Asian markets, was designed to reverse the drop in market share. NYMEX price of oil dropped below $80 by early Nov. 2014.
Grouped Articles
Saudi Price Cut Upends Oil Market
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Energy Quakes as OPEC Stands Pat
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01/18/2015
The economic prospects of emerging market countries have changed significantly since 2013. In Turkey political problems and a high current account deficit led to a slump in the lira and high interest rate policies by early 2014. In India the Congress party government let the economy drift in 2013 with no action taken. The newly elected Modi adminstration in 2014 and now lower oil prices are giving a major boost to economic growth in India. China with huge oil imports is also a beneficiary as it tackles problems from the boom years and growth slows to below 7%.
Grouped Articles
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A nuclear deal reached in 2015 would reduce economic sanctions. The economic sanctions since 2012 have cut Iran's sales of crude to 1-2 million barrels a day, half of normal production levels. The extra crude following a succesful nuclear negotiated deal would keep oil prices low for an extended period.
Grouped Articles
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Grouped Articles
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Grouped Articles
Dallas-Fort Worth Keeps Texas Engine Revving
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$15 Oil? It’s Already Here, in Canada
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OPEC policy and oil prices- 2013-2018
11/30/2013
Grouped Articles
OPEC Rift Emerging Over Iraq Output, Possible Return of Iran
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Venezuela Could Force Oil Market to Take Stock
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Oil Prices Continue Decline, Pressured by Saudi Action to Defend Market Share
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OPEC Members’ Discord Adds to Slide in Oil Prices
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OPEC supply, oil demand and oil prices 2014-2017
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Grouped Articles
IEA Cuts Outlook for Oil-Demand Growth by 22%
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Saudi Arabia Sees Oil Prices Stabilizing Around $60 a Barrel
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Projected further decline in oil demand for 2016, after the drop in oil prices in 2015
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Grouped Articles
Global Demand Growth for Oil May Fall by a Third in 2016
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How American Shale Drillers Flipped OPEC’s Script
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Saudi oil price strategies in 2014-2016
10/15/2014
Grouped Articles
As Oil Prices Plummet, Saudi Arabia Faces a Test of Strategy
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The boost to the slowing Chinese economy from lower oil prices in 2015
03/16/2015
The lower oil prices provides a estimated boost to the Chinese economy of about $600 million a day, $18 billion a month, at a time when it is slowing and faces high debt levels.
Grouped Articles
A Windfall for China as Commodity Prices Plunge
Wall Street Journal 03/16/2015
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China Has Big Eyes, Little Stomach for Oil
Wall Street Journal 08/27/2015
The Global Battle for Oil Market Share
Wall Street Journal 12/16/2015
Why the Iran deal is seen as a "win-win spirit" by China, and its impact on other emerging markets such as India
07/15/2015
Large oil importing countries such as China and India see the Iran deal very favorably as sanction limited oil imports. The deal also increases the probability of a sustained period of low oil prices which favors importers as Iranian crude flows into world markets. India with problems in its coal industry is faced with high oil import costs constraining growth, and China with large debt and other problems cosntraining growth, see the prospect of low cost oil imports for an extended period as an opportunity.
Grouped Articles
Oil-Thirsty China a Winner in Iran Deal
Wall Street Journal 07/15/2015
China Has Big Eyes, Little Stomach for Oil
Wall Street Journal 08/27/2015
The Global Battle for Oil Market Share
Wall Street Journal 12/16/2015
China Deepens Its Footprint in Iran After Lifting of Sanctions
New York Times 01/24/2016
US oil sanctions on Iran anger Asian powers
The Times 04/22/2019
Oil prices cloud India’s macroeconomic outlook
https://www.hindustantimes.com/ 05/13/2019
The effect of Iranian oil following lifting of sanctions on global oil supplies and prices 2015-2016
07/14/2015
Grouped Articles
Iran’s Discount Deal for Global Oil
Wall Street Journal 07/14/2015
U.N. Moves to Lift Iran Sanctions After Nuclear Deal, Setting Up a Clash in Congress
New York Times 07/20/2015
The Global Battle for Oil Market Share
Wall Street Journal 12/16/2015
Oil glut dampens Iran’s hopes for big cash flows as sanctions lift - The Washington Post
Washington Post 01/17/2016
Iran Complies With Nuclear Deal; Sanctions Are Lifted
New York Times 01/16/2016
Battered by War, Iraq Now Faces Calamity From Dropping Oil Prices
New York Times 01/31/2016
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