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Trade Fight With U.S. Complicates China’s Campaign to Contain Debt
U.S. president Trump's statement calling for a list of goods for tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods leaves China without a clear response and facing new risks. The U.S. exports about $150 billion in goods to China so that China would have to impose penalties to respond at the same level. Placing restrictions on American firms on access to China's market, and imposing other penalties would have the effect of reinforcing the perception of unfair practices targeting American business and lead to hardening of U.S. response.
The U.S. sees itself as being in a better position with the U.S. economy experiencing a growth trend. China with large local government and bank debt faces a difficult situation. President Jinping's policy of reducing the risks of bad debt in the banking system involved sacrificing some growth to stabilize the system. China's GDP growth in 2017 was 6.9%, the target at 6.5%. Future targets and actual growth now look to be much lower.The trade war with the U.S. has the effect of dampening growth leading to calls for the central bank to loosen its monetary stance. In response to Trump's announcement the People's Bank of China pumped $31 billion into the nation's banks.
China is studying Japan's response in the 1980's and 1990's when the U.S. took strong action against Japan's growing trade surplus. Japan responded by appreciating its currency and using stimulus to cushion the effect of lower exports on the economy. The stimulus led to the housing bubble and over time a period of low growth and stagnant economy. The large China stimulus in 2008-2009 has compounded the problems in the banking system. Not deleveraging and controlling financial risks in China's banking system because of the trade war would bring a new set of risks.
The negotiating positions of the U.S. and China as both sides come to the negotiating table on tariffs in 2018
04/04/2018
Grouped Articles
How Trump’s Tariffs Could Really Hurt China
WSJ 04/04/2018
Tariff Showdown Shifts to Intense Negotiation Period
WSJ 04/05/2018
Trump’s Tariff List Aims at China’s Exports—and Aspirations
WSJ 04/04/2018
White House Tries to Tamp Down Trade War Fears as China Retaliates
The New York Times 04/04/2018
A Trump Win on China Tariffs Could Aid Auto Plants in U.S. —Just Not American Ones
WSJ 04/20/2018
U.S. and China Dive In for Prolonged Trade Talks
WSJ 05/03/2018
The U.S. tariffs on high tech exports from China now and in the future- a clear response to "Made in China 2025"
04/05/2018
Grouped Articles
Trump’s Tariff List Aims at China’s Exports—and Aspirations
WSJ 04/04/2018
White House Tries to Tamp Down Trade War Fears as China Retaliates
The New York Times 04/04/2018
POLITICO: How China acquires ‘the crown jewels’ of U.S. technology
South China Morning Post 05/25/2018
Trade Fight With U.S. Complicates China’s Campaign to Contain Debt
WSJ 06/19/2018
European Firms Fret Over Made-In-China Policy
WSJ 06/20/2018
Trump Plans New Curbs on Chinese Investment, Tech Exports to China
WSJ 06/25/2018
The role of "loan guarantee chains" in fueling China's credit bubble and the surge in bad loans in 2014-2015
11/24/2014
Experts says what is unusual in China is that the loan guarantees for one firm are given by other firms in different industries. One defaulting textile firm had its loan guranteed by a machinery maker and a paper maker. The result is it creates problems for all of the firms. The other problem aspect of this arrangement is that banks evaluated credit risk by using these loan guarantees as evidence of creditworthiness. Till 2012 with no slowdown in growth in sight no questions were asked. With the slowdown in 2014-2015 this means a surge in bad loans in China's banking system unlike what it has experienced before, as continued high pace of growth can no longer be relied on to cushion the banking system from the risks.
Grouped Articles
Loan ‘Guarantee Chains’ in China Prove Flimsy
Wall Street Journal 11/24/2014
Economist 07/04/2015
A Warning on China Seems Prescient
New York Times 08/24/2015
China’s Banks Face Worst Year in Over a Decade
Wall Street Journal 08/28/2015
Overheard: One ‘Best-Case’ Scenario for China’s Banks Is Pretty Bad
Wall Street Journal 09/17/2015
Trade Fight With U.S. Complicates China’s Campaign to Contain Debt
WSJ 06/19/2018
Charlene Chu of Autonomous Research and the "best case scenario" for China's banks at 20% bad loan losses in 2015
09/17/2015
Grouped Articles
Overheard: One ‘Best-Case’ Scenario for China’s Banks Is Pretty Bad
Wall Street Journal 09/17/2015
China’s Banks Are Hiding More Than $2 Trillion in Loans
WSJ 12/07/2016
Trade Fight With U.S. Complicates China’s Campaign to Contain Debt
WSJ 06/19/2018
The People's Bank of China's injection of $65 billion into China's banking system in Dec. 2014 and other moves in 2015 to spur bank lending
12/12/2014
China's central bank injects money into the banking system as banks are reluctant to lend and expected growth slows to below 7%. PBOC is also concerned about the excessive debt buildup as it guides the economy. PBOC lowered the reserve requirement by one half percentage point in Feb. 2015 to free up $81 billion for lending at banks, with other targeted moves for small business and agriculture.
Grouped Articles
China Adds Cash to Banking System to Spur Growth
Wall Street Journal 12/12/2014
China’s Central Bank Goes With the Flow
Wall Street Journal 02/05/2015
China Moves to Free Up Money in Its Economy
New York Times 02/04/2015
China Frees Up $200 Billion for Lending
New York Times 04/19/2015
China Cuts Rates to Halt a Slide in Its Economy
New York Times 05/10/2015
China’s Economy Not Immune to Market Sickness
Wall Street Journal 06/30/2015
China's central bank, People' Bank of China (PBOC), and policies promoting macroprudence in lending in 2013-2014
06/25/2013
Grouped Articles
As Markets Seesaw, Chinaâs Central Bank Tries to Allay Concern on Tight Credit
New York Times 06/25/2013
Central Bankers Hone Tools to Pop Bubbles
Wall Street Journal 07/08/2013
China's Credit Levels Echo U.S. Crisis
Wall Street Journal 09/08/2013
China Think Tank Offers Reform Wish List
Wall Street Journal 10/30/2013
China's Central Banker Leads Push to Overhaul Economy
Wall Street Journal 11/05/2013
Insuring a Path to Chinese Reform
Wall Street Journal 11/06/2013
Loose monetary policy in China in 2010-2011
03/07/2009
Difficulties of making a soft landing after the huge lending boom in China in 2009-2010 continues into 2011. Inflation and other risks from this lending continue. The burden of large local government debt in China and non-performing loans in the banking system. China's local government debt is estimated to be between 27% of GDP to 42% of GDP. Because of the opaqueness of the financial system the exact amount is not clear and estimates vary.
Grouped Articles
Asia Goes on a Debt Binge as Much of World Sobers Up
Wall Street Journal 05/24/2013
China's 'Shadow Banks' Fan Debt-Bubble Fears
Wall Street Journal 06/24/2013
China's Silver Linings Playbook
Wall Street Journal 06/24/2013
Wall Street Journal 06/25/2013
Credit Warnings Offer World a Peek Into Chinaâs Secretive Banks
New York Times 06/24/2013
Central Bankers Hone Tools to Pop Bubbles
Wall Street Journal 07/08/2013
Risks in China's banking and financial system in 2010-2015
12/11/2010
Grouped Articles
Asia Goes on a Debt Binge as Much of World Sobers Up
Wall Street Journal 05/24/2013
China's 'Shadow Banks' Fan Debt-Bubble Fears
Wall Street Journal 06/24/2013
China's Silver Linings Playbook
Wall Street Journal 06/24/2013
Credit Warnings Offer World a Peek Into Chinaâs Secretive Banks
New York Times 06/24/2013
I.M.F. Tells China of Urgent Need for Economic Change
New York Times 07/17/2013
Charlene Chu Is the 'Rock Star' of Chinese Debt Analysis
Wall Street Journal 08/22/2013
WSJ's series on China's banks in 2014- "Rising Risks"
12/27/2013
Grouped Articles
China Banks Keep the Fees Flowing
Wall Street Journal 12/27/2013
Xi Faces Test Over China's Local Debt
Wall Street Journal 12/31/2013
Regulators at Odds on Reining In China's Shadow Lending
Wall Street Journal 01/15/2014
Wall Street Journal 08/18/2014
China's Moment of Truth: Financial Reform or Growth?
Wall Street Journal 09/16/2014
Profit Growth Is Slowing at China’s Biggest Banks
Wall Street Journal 10/30/2014
Large exposure to local government financing vehicles of China's smaller banks
06/17/2010
Larger banks have a smaller portion of their loans made to local government financing vehicles than the larger banks. Agricultural Bank of China, Construction Bank of China, Bank of China, Industrial and Commerical Bank of China have 6-7% of their loans made to local government financing vehicles, compared to 20% for Everbright Bank and 13-20% for other smaller banks. This means they will be the first to be in trouble in a financial crisis because of the high risk and poor asset quality of such loans.
Grouped Articles
Asia Goes on a Debt Binge as Much of World Sobers Up
Wall Street Journal 05/24/2013
I.M.F. Tells China of Urgent Need for Economic Change
New York Times 07/17/2013
China's Credit Levels Echo U.S. Crisis
Wall Street Journal 09/08/2013
Chinese Banks' Divided Capital
Wall Street Journal 10/31/2013
Chinese Bank Regulator Warns of Loan Risks
Wall Street Journal 06/17/2010
BusinessWeek 07/29/2010
Chimerica as economic monster and the 10-10 deal, 10% growth in China and 10% unemployment in the USA.
11/16/2009
Niall Ferguson at Harvard and Moritz Schularick of the Free University of Berlin say giving a peaceful death to this monster is long overdue. Krugman also calls this a world out of balance on the pages of the NYT, November 16, 2009.
Grouped Articles
China Will Keep Growing. Just Ask the Soviets.
New York Times 10/24/2014
Apple Says App Store Sales Rose 50% in 2014
Wall Street Journal 01/09/2015
New York Times 11/16/2009
New York Times 11/16/2009
China and the American Jobs Machine
Wall Street Journal 11/17/2009
Why the Chinese don’t spend : The New Yorker
New Yorker 01/04/2010
China's GDP growth declines to 7% in 2015
04/15/2015
Grouped Articles
China’s First-Quarter Growth Slowest in Six Years at 7%
Wall Street Journal 04/15/2015
China’s True Growth Is a Mystery; Economists Weigh the Clues
Wall Street Journal 04/27/2015
China’s Economy Not Immune to Market Sickness
Wall Street Journal 06/30/2015
Washington Post 01/27/2016
Moody’s Cuts Its China Rating for the First Time Since 1989
WSJ 05/24/2017
Trade Fight With U.S. Complicates China’s Campaign to Contain Debt
WSJ 06/19/2018
China's search for a new model for growth with multiple indicators and not focussed only on GDP
10/02/2012
Grouped Articles
Economists Trim China Growth Forecasts
Wall Street Journal 05/14/2013
China's Silver Linings Playbook
Wall Street Journal 06/24/2013
Wall Street Journal 06/25/2013
U.S. Stocks Shrug at China's Woes
Wall Street Journal 07/10/2013
Wall Street Journal 07/15/2013
China Forecasts 7.6% Economic Growth in 2013
Wall Street Journal 12/27/2013
China's National People's Congress meeting in March 2016- setting policy to maintain steady growth and control debt as the economy slows
03/07/2016
Grouped Articles
China’s Leaders Put the Economy on Bubble Watch
Wall Street Journal 03/07/2016
China facing full-blown banking crisis, world's top financial watchdog warns
The Telegraph 09/19/2016
China Leans on Familiar Stimulus Playbook to Hit 6.7% Growth
WSJ 01/19/2017
The Problem With China’s Economic Growth
WSJ 07/17/2017
Trade Fight With U.S. Complicates China’s Campaign to Contain Debt
WSJ 06/19/2018
U.S. trade with China in 2000-2011 and the impact on cities and counties in the U.S.
09/25/2010
Three American researchers have completed a study on the impact of U.S. trade in the decade 2000-2011 with China, a period of exceptionally high growth of about 12% in China and a surge in imports into the U.S. The study shows counties in the 75th percentile in import levels experienced a surge in unemployment and government payments to support the unemployed. Nobel Prize winner Michael Spence points out this was an exceptional period and no theory in textbooks can account for the changes taking place because the growth rate in China was unprecedented.
Grouped Articles
Tallying the Toll of U.S.-China Trade
Wall Street Journal 09/27/2011
US-China trade relations: Speak less softly, carry a stick
Economist 09/25/2010
Wall Street Journal 10/02/2010
In Tepid Wage Growth, a Potent Sign of a Still-Fragile Economy
New York Times 05/05/2014
U.S. Trade Gap Widens on Surging Imports
Wall Street Journal 05/06/2015
Campaign Season’s Anti-China Tone Is Likely to Cloud Meeting With Obama
New York Times 03/30/2016
China's response to the tariffs on steel and high tech products of the Trump administration in 2018
04/04/2018
Grouped Articles
China Threatens U.S. Cars, Planes and Soy in Response to Trump
WSJ 04/04/2018
Tariff Showdown Shifts to Intense Negotiation Period
WSJ 04/05/2018
Trump’s Tariff List Aims at China’s Exports—and Aspirations
WSJ 04/04/2018
A Trump Win on China Tariffs Could Aid Auto Plants in U.S. —Just Not American Ones
WSJ 04/20/2018
Treasury Secretary Says U.S., China Have Suspended Tariffs
WSJ 05/21/2018
China has ‘nuclear options’ in trade war with US ... really?
South China Morning Post 05/25/2018
China's future and the experience of Japan and Mexico
05/29/2010
China devotes 3% of GDP to education compared to 5% in developed countries. The underinvestment in education and human capital can lead to stagnation in per capita incomes. This happened in Mexico. The inability to deal with bad loans in the banking system can lead to slowing economic growth. This happened in Japan. The bulldozing of schools of migrant workers reflects a failure to address balanced growth and a breakdown in assigning the right priorities.
Grouped Articles
Mexico and China look to trade away old rivalry - The Washington Post
Washington Post 04/18/2013
China's 'Shadow Banks' Fan Debt-Bubble Fears
Wall Street Journal 06/24/2013
China's Silver Linings Playbook
Wall Street Journal 06/24/2013
U.S. Stocks Shrug at China's Woes
Wall Street Journal 07/10/2013
The Slowing of Two Economic Giants
New York Times 07/14/2013
Unrest May Signal New Phase in China Economy
New York Times 05/29/2010
Bad loans at China's banks, especially smaller banks that make up a third of the banking sector, in 2015
07/04/2015
Grouped Articles
Economist 07/04/2015
A Warning on China Seems Prescient
New York Times 08/24/2015
China’s Banks Face Worst Year in Over a Decade
Wall Street Journal 08/28/2015
Overheard: One ‘Best-Case’ Scenario for China’s Banks Is Pretty Bad
Wall Street Journal 09/17/2015
China’s Banks Are Hiding More Than $2 Trillion in Loans
WSJ 12/07/2016
Trade Fight With U.S. Complicates China’s Campaign to Contain Debt
WSJ 06/19/2018
The 0.25% interest rate cut by China's central bank, People's Bank of China, in Nov. 2014, followed by a similar cut in May 2015 and August 2015
11/21/2014
The People's Bank of China cuts the benchmark one year deposit rate by 0.25% to 2.75% in Nov 2014.
Grouped Articles
In Change of Strategy, China Cuts Interest Rate
New York Times 11/21/2014
China Rate Cut Surprises, Doesn’t Overwhelm
Wall Street Journal 11/22/2014
China Central Bank Cut in Rates May Be Short on Impact
Wall Street Journal 11/25/2014
China’s Central Bank Goes With the Flow
Wall Street Journal 02/05/2015
China Frees Up $200 Billion for Lending
New York Times 04/19/2015
China Cuts Rates to Halt a Slide in Its Economy
New York Times 05/10/2015
China's central bank, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) and policies in 2011-2015
10/21/2010
The leadership and priorities of Zhou Xiaochuan, who has headed the PBOC, central bank of China, since 2002. He was appointed to a new third five year term in 2013.
Grouped Articles
China’s Economic Problems Unlike Those Elsewhere
New York Times 05/28/2013
China's 'Shadow Banks' Fan Debt-Bubble Fears
Wall Street Journal 06/24/2013
China's Silver Linings Playbook
Wall Street Journal 06/24/2013
Wall Street Journal 06/25/2013
China Central Bank Warns Banks on Liquidity
Wall Street Journal 06/25/2013
Credit Warnings Offer World a Peek Into Chinaâs Secretive Banks
New York Times 06/24/2013
China's central bank's (PBOC) monitoring of loan default risk in 2014
05/07/2014
Grouped Articles
China Central Bank Vows to Step Up Monitoring of Loan Default Risks
Wall Street Journal 05/07/2014
China's Moment of Truth: Financial Reform or Growth?
Wall Street Journal 09/16/2014
China Moves to Free Up Money in Its Economy
New York Times 02/04/2015
Economist 07/04/2015
China’s Banks Face Worst Year in Over a Decade
Wall Street Journal 08/28/2015
Beijing Muddles Markets With Mixed Signals
Wall Street Journal 01/06/2016
China's banks and risks in 2016-2017- 20% of bank loans disguised as investment receivables using shadow lenders by 2016
12/08/2016
Grouped Articles
China’s Banks Are Hiding More Than $2 Trillion in Loans
WSJ 12/07/2016
Trade Fight With U.S. Complicates China’s Campaign to Contain Debt
WSJ 06/19/2018
Liu He and the report of the Development Reform Commisson (DRC) in 2013 on changes needed in the banking and financial system in China
10/30/2013
The DRC under Liu He is pushing for changes that put the focus on credit risk in China's banking system. He is now a close advisor to China's president Jinping.
Grouped Articles
China Think Tank Offers Reform Wish List
Wall Street Journal 10/30/2013
China's Central Banker Leads Push to Overhaul Economy
Wall Street Journal 11/05/2013
Insuring a Path to Chinese Reform
Wall Street Journal 11/06/2013
China's Party Platter of Overhauls
Wall Street Journal 11/09/2013
Xi Weakens Role of Beijing's No. 2
Wall Street Journal 12/21/2013
At China's NPC, Proposed Changes Include Bank Deposit Insurance
Wall Street Journal 03/06/2014
China's local government debt poses a risk for the economy
06/17/2010
China's local government debt is estimated to be in the range of 27% to 42% of GDP. Loans by banks to local government financing vehicles face high risk of default.
Grouped Articles
Asia Goes on a Debt Binge as Much of World Sobers Up
Wall Street Journal 05/24/2013
China's 'Shadow Banks' Fan Debt-Bubble Fears
Wall Street Journal 06/24/2013
China's Silver Linings Playbook
Wall Street Journal 06/24/2013
I.M.F. Tells China of Urgent Need for Economic Change
New York Times 07/17/2013
China's Credit Levels Echo U.S. Crisis
Wall Street Journal 09/08/2013
China Think Tank Offers Reform Wish List
Wall Street Journal 10/30/2013
China's stalling economy and productivity growth- the need for new direction in 2013-2015
03/06/2012
Bloomberg estimates show every one dollar of new credit created now yields about 17 cents in GDP growth as old polices of state led growth are no longer working. This compares to over 83 cents in 2007. Financial repression by reducing interest rates for savers is further depressing consumer spending when it is most needed to rebalance the economy towards domestic consumption.
Grouped Articles
Wall Street Journal 07/01/2013
Wall Street Journal 07/15/2013
China Think Tank Offers Reform Wish List
Wall Street Journal 10/30/2013
China Forecasts 7.6% Economic Growth in 2013
Wall Street Journal 12/27/2013
Xi Faces Test Over China's Local Debt
Wall Street Journal 12/31/2013
Beijing Should Scrap the GDP Target
Wall Street Journal 01/08/2014
China's policy actions to address impact of global financial crisis 2008-2012
08/14/2008
Policy actions taken by China to address the global economic crisis's impact on Chinese growth rate including land policy for farmers and export rebates.
Grouped Articles
Trade Losses Rise in China, Threatening Jobs
New York Times 01/14/2009
Global Trade Posts Sharp Decline
Wall Street Journal 01/14/2009
Economist 01/15/2009
Tax Cut Spurs 25% Rise in Chinese Auto Sales
Wall Street Journal 03/11/2009
China's Economic Torch Won't Outlast Olympics
BusinessWeek 08/14/2008
New York Times 08/24/2008
Slowdown in growth in China and India and future prospects
02/11/2010
Grouped Articles
The Slowing of Two Economic Giants
New York Times 07/14/2013
India Seeks Less Help From China For Power Sector
Wall Street Journal 02/11/2010
Mom-and-Pop Investors Bolt Emerging Markets
Wall Street Journal 08/22/2013
Xi Faces Test Over China's Local Debt
Wall Street Journal 12/31/2013
Business in India: A bumpier but freer road
Economist 10/02/2010
India's Industrial Output Takes a Steep Fall
Wall Street Journal 05/12/2012
China's declining GDP growth in 2012-2015
07/13/2012
Grouped Articles
Economists Trim China Growth Forecasts
Wall Street Journal 05/14/2013
China's 'Shadow Banks' Fan Debt-Bubble Fears
Wall Street Journal 06/24/2013
China's Silver Linings Playbook
Wall Street Journal 06/24/2013
Wall Street Journal 06/25/2013
U.S. Stocks Shrug at China's Woes
Wall Street Journal 07/10/2013
China Forecasts 7.6% Economic Growth in 2013
Wall Street Journal 12/27/2013
China's big problem in 2015- 8000 local government financing vehicles running up debt even when about half of borrowing goes to rollover old loans
01/28/2015
As the debt is run up it takes more units of borrowing to create one unit of investment. Over 4 units of borrowing in 2015 compared to less than 2 units of borowing before 2007, is what it now takes to create one unit of investment, according to JP Morgan. Where this adds to the glut in building or if its just a pet project or dream of city mayors the productivity of the investment is much lower, with additional risks in borrowing. And the collateral to support it of land sales is now increasingly unreliable with developers making cuts as property markets are slowing. The central government fearing slowing growth is pushing problems down the road, say experts. The IMF estimates that local government debt will reach 56% of GDP by 2019. The danger is that this will depress China's growth to below 5-6% in coming years witht a lot of the new borrowing simply going to rollover old loans, a situation Japan faced in the 1990's when the expression zombie loans was coined. This has implications for major manufacturing exporters Germany, Japan, the U.S., and for commodity exporters Australia, Canada, Brazil, S. Africa, Chile, which may look to India, Indonesia and other developing countries for exports.
Grouped Articles
Debt That Once Boosted Its Cities Now Burdens China
Wall Street Journal 01/28/2015
China’s First-Quarter Growth Slowest in Six Years at 7%
Wall Street Journal 04/15/2015
A Warning on China Seems Prescient
New York Times 08/24/2015
China facing full-blown banking crisis, world's top financial watchdog warns
The Telegraph 09/19/2016
China’s Economy Grows 6.9%, but Warning Signs Persist
The New York Times 04/17/2017
Moody’s Cuts Its China Rating for the First Time Since 1989
WSJ 05/24/2017
The relatively small effects of slowing growth in China on the U.S. economy in 2015, and some positive factors
09/08/2015
WIth only 1% of U.S. GDP related to U.S. exports to China, and Chinese direct foreign investment in the U.S. being less than 1% of all foreign investment in the U.S., China's slowdown is not likely to affect the U.S., according to Easwar Prasad, former IMF expert on China. Positive factors are the slower growth in prices of manufactured products imported from China, the lower prices of commodities such as oil, copper and other metals for an extended period, and bigger markets in China for U.S. service industries, internet and entertainment as Chinese consumer spending plays a larger role in China's GDP.
Grouped Articles
China Slowdown Could End Up Being Good News for U.S.
Wall Street Journal 09/08/2015
Final 3rd-Quarter Estimate Shows U.S. Economy Growing 2%
New York Times 12/22/2015
Moody’s Cuts Its China Rating for the First Time Since 1989
WSJ 05/24/2017
Trade Fight With U.S. Complicates China’s Campaign to Contain Debt
WSJ 06/19/2018
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