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Deepening Crisis Over Euro Pits Leader Against Leader

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Wall Street Journal reporters Walker in Berlin, Forelle in Brussels, and Meichtry in Rome, reconstruct the events during critical days after the indecision and failure to reach agreement during the July summit of eurozone countries. This took the form of intervews with leading players and over 25 policy makers. What emerges are accounts of how Germany's Angela Merkel, daughter of a Lutheran pastor, and protege of Eurozone founder, former German chancellor Helmut Kohl, handled the crisis. Merkel was widely criticized in the media for indecision. What emerges is an account of a leader who took decisive action at key moments in the crisis- leading to the formation of new governments in Greece and Italy taking action to improve finances, and negotiations with banks represented by the International Finance Corporation leading to acceptance by banks of a 50% loss on loans to Greece to reduce Greece's unsustainable debt burden. Merkel also worked with the European Central Bank's departing president Frenchman Claude Trichet and new president Italian Mario Draghi to resist French president Sarkozy's efforts to have the ECB assume responsibility for the crisis through large scale buying of Italian and Spanish bonds; which was opposed by German public opinion as a backdoor way of having German taxpayers assume responsibility for European debt. Shown are three critical moments when Merkel intervened. In October 2011, after Italian prime minister Berlusconi reneged on promises to make pension and other reforms to improve Italian finances because of political resistance. He survived a parliamentary no-confidence vote by one vote. Merkel took the lead on October 20, by directly calling Italian President Georgio Napolitano on the phone, to urge him to take action for forming a new government in Italy. The result was Napolitano talking with all political parties to form a new government, leading to the formation of a government by a non-political figure respected in Italy, former EU commissioner Mario Monti. A day earlier, on October 19, French President Sarkozy met ECB president, Trichet, at an event honoring him as departing ECB president in Frankfurt's Alte Oper concert hall. Trichet, Merkel and Sarkozy met in a side room. Sarkozy asked for decisive help from the ECB for large scale buying of Italian and Spanish bonds to lower yields, which had reached 7% on Italian bonds. Trichet responded that the ECB's charter did not allow it to finance governments, with the meeting ending in a shouting match between the two leaders. On October 21, EU and IMF inspectors warned that Greece's debt was reaching unsustainable proportions and austerity measures alone would not work, unless the bondholders, the European banks, took losses of 60% on their excessive lending to Greece. At this point France agreed to the German position arguing for this level of bondholder haircuts or losses, fearing the prospect of large future bailouts that would jeopardize France's triple AAA credit rating. The July 2011 summit accord had only provided for 10% in losses for bondholders. On October 27, at a meeting that went past midnight, Merkel and Sarkozy called IIF head Charles Dallara, who headed negotiating for the banks, to EU headquarters in Brussels. Merkel handed Dallara an agreement containing the 50% bondholder loss demand, and told Dallara- "This is the last offer." Merkel was saying banks would be left with nothing if they rejected it and Greece defaulted. Dallara called bankers and the IIF accepted Merkel's agreement. The final moment that October came on October 31, when Greece's prime minister Papandreou said he would call a referendum on the bailout provisions and austerity measures demanded by the IMF, the EU and the ECB. Bond markets reacted negatively to the announcement fearing a rejection and a Greek default. The Group of 20 leaders was meeting in Cannes, France on Nov. 2, 2011. Papandreou was asked to come to Cannes for a pre-summit meeting. Here Merkel told Papandreou- "the real question" for the referendum was, "Do you want to be in the euro, or not?" Days later Papandreou, lacking support in Greece from political parties and opposition inside his party, submitted his resignation. A non-political figure respected in Greece, former ECB vice president, Lucas Papademos, was appointed prime minister to head a Unity government. Polls after the appointment showed three fourths of Greeks said that this was "a positive step for Greece," with Papandreou's party getting only 11% support and the opposition led by Samaras about 20%. The criticism leveled at Merkel is that Germany should take responsibility for debt throughout the euro area through the issuance of eurozone bonds or the ECB buying large amount of bonds of Spain and Italy. Merkel faced strong opposition inside Germany and from the Bundesbank to this idea. The other criticism was based on austerity measures worsening the finances of Greece because of a lack of growth in the economy, which is true; yet Germany may see the situation in Greece as taking a long time to be resolved in any event because of excessive and faulty financial management. For Italy and Spain putting finances in order was a necessity, and austerity measures should lead to short term sacrifice but improve prospects for the long term by returning the economies to growth. Another criticism is the installation of governments that lack popular or electoral support. As the polls in Greece showed the Unity government there has far greater support and public opinion blames the politicians for the huge mess. In Italy, Berlusconi was widely seen as losing popular support when he resigned. And in Spain Mariano Rajoy, the newly elected prime minister, was elected with a huge majority in parliament following winning in local government elections. Merkel also held her own party, the Chrisitian Democrats together at the recent Leipzig convention. Mario Draghi, was elected with German support to head the European Central Bank. He has long argued for better management of Italian finances as head of Italy's central bank. Draghi was able to support Merkel with carefully planned and managed actions. First to reduce interest rates to support economic growth in a slowing eurozone. Following this with the ECB's Long Term Financing Operation in late December 2011, to provide unlimited loans to European banks at 1% interest for three years in exchange for a broadened list of collateral deposited at the ECB. In a final twist in this drama, Charles Dallara, who was a key negotiator for the U.S. Treasury in setting up the Brady Bonds- that converted bad Latin American government debt owed to U.S. banks in the 1980's into long term debt with large reductions in principal owed and lower interest rates. This was in exchange for guaranteed repayment with 30 year U.S. zero coupon bonds. Dallara was now a negotiator for the banks to reduce the chance of the very same bondholder haircuts that he had negotiated in an earlier period to solve the Latin American debt crisis. Other players in the drama were Axel Weber, head of the Bundesbank, Germany's central bank, who resigned after strong and outspoken opposition to the ECB's large scale purchase of bonds of Greece, Italy and Spain. Jens Weidmann, his protege, who replaced him. And Jurgen Stark, German representative at the ECB, who also resigned in opposition to Germany assuming responsibility for eurozone debt.

Germany's Angela Merkel's decisiveness at key moments in the eurozone crisis 2010-2012

04/29/2010

In dealing with bankers on bondholder losses for loans to Greece, with Greece's prime minister Papandreou over a proposed referendum on debt reduction, and with French president Sarkozy on bondholder losses to reduce Greek debt, at every turn Angela Merkel showed a clear decisiveness during the eurozone crisis in 2011-2012. After a no confidence vote for premier Berlusconi in Italy's parliament Merkel persuaded president Napolitano to win consensus for the formation of a new government headed by Mario Monti, EU commissioner. After earlier fumbling with the crisis in actions by Merkel in 2010, the German chancellor learned from errors and improved her handling of the eurozone crisis in 2011-2013.

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Analysts point to the lack of immediate action as the main reason the crisis is spiralling out of control. The IMF report in mid 2009 raised the alarm on Greece's financial situation. One estimate is for bondholders needing to take 85% haircut on loans to Greece, instead of the 50% agreed to under the EU plan in November 2011. The situation has worsened as ECB president Trichet and others in the EU pushed austerity plans on Greece without working out needed serious debt reduction of over half the debt in 2009. The idea of a default in the eurozone was considered unthinkable, leading to errors in judgement by decisionmakers.

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Draghi addresses the issue of large scale purchases of bonds of Italy and Spain to ease pressure on bond yields, by leaving open the possibility of action if the EU countries take the necessary steps for a strict budgetary framework.

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The ECB's newly created Long Term Financing Operation enables European banks to meet their financing needs by borrowing from the European Central Bank at low rates of 1% for three years. Mid size banks in Spain buy government bonds of Spain and use the bonds as collateral at the ECB to access this lowcost funding. This has helped bring down rates at a recent auction of Spain's bonds from 5.1% to 1.7%. Italian banks also participated in the same way. 523 European banks borrowed 489 billion euros on Dec. 21, 2011, under this newly created financing operation of the ECB. This provides European banks financing as they are shutoff from normal financing by selling unsecured bonds to private and institutional lenders. This helps banks in the eurozone meet financial needs in 2012 without reducing lending to businesses and consumers.

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The purchases of Italian and Spanish bonds by the European Central Bank in addition to its holdings of 75 billion euros of Portuguese, Greek and Irish bonds creates additional balance sheet risk for the ECB. Losses in the value of collateral could wipe out the 10 billion euro capital base of the ECB. The pressing need to give resources and new powers to the European Financial Stability Facility so that this agency could do the bond buying in the place of the ECB.

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One estimate of the loss to the Italian Treasury from tax evasion- through underreporting of income from plumbers to real estate agents and large property owners and other forms of tax evasion- is $340 billion. With the deepening economic crisis the sense of what this is costing the country is beginning to sink in. About 73% of Italians now support the fight against tax evasion being led by the new government of Mario Monti, the former European commissioner. The loss is not only to the Treasury and ability to balance the budget without deficits, this also burdens companies and reduces capital needed for investments in plant, new equipment, and R&D, which create jobs.

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