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Staring Into the ECB's Mini Bazooka
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Simon Nixon points out that most of the 490 billion in euros borrowed by European banks under the Long Term Refinancing Operation of the ECB in Dec. 2011 is for rolling over maturing debt, rather than buying of government bonds. European banks financing needs based on figures from Barclay's Capital are over 300 billion euros for the 1st quarter of 2012. This suggests huge demand for the Long Term Financing Operation in the next quarter. For Spain and Italy the newly created lending facility should lead to higher bond buying by small and midsized Spanish banks and Italian banks, as this will boost their profitability. Spanish bonds yield 5% and Italian bonds yield 6.5% and loans from the ECB using the bonds as collateral are available at 1% for three years, which makes this an opportunity for these banks to boost profitability. The proportion of government bonds of Spain of Spanish banks bank assets is 7% and the figure for Italian banks is 9%. Nixon says an increase of this ratio by three percentage points by Spanish banks would created additional demand for Spanish government bonds of 45 billion euros, which is a third of the issuance for 2012.
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The purchases of Italian and Spanish bonds by the European Central Bank in addition to its holdings of 75 billion euros of Portuguese, Greek and Irish bonds creates additional balance sheet risk for the ECB. Losses in the value of collateral could wipe out the 10 billion euro capital base of the ECB. The pressing need to give resources and new powers to the European Financial Stability Facility so that this agency could do the bond buying in the place of the ECB.
Grouped Articles
German Court to Weigh Bond Buying by E.C.B.
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The ECB's newly created Long Term Financing Operation enables European banks to meet their financing needs by borrowing from the European Central Bank at low rates of 1% for three years. Mid size banks in Spain buy government bonds of Spain and use the bonds as collateral at the ECB to access this lowcost funding. This has helped bring down rates at a recent auction of Spain's bonds from 5.1% to 1.7%. Italian banks also participated in the same way. 523 European banks borrowed 489 billion euros on Dec. 21, 2011, under this newly created financing operation of the ECB. This provides European banks financing as they are shutoff from normal financing by selling unsecured bonds to private and institutional lenders. This helps banks in the eurozone meet financial needs in 2012 without reducing lending to businesses and consumers.
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Spain kept its deficits below the 3% mandated under EU treaties, till recently. Asset bubbles sustained because of bad lending by a country's banks and easy acess to credit from outside the country, are two problems not addressed by tighter budget controls in the revised rules being set after the Dec. 9 EU Summit. Spain's debt problem is to recapitalize these failing banks and debt of regional governments. Spain relied too much on a construction boom for growth, with productivity stalled. Ireland improved competitiveness and attracted foreign investment. This too unraveled in the face of an asset bubble from speculative lending by its banks.
Grouped Articles
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Action taken on Nov. 30, 2011, by central banks of U.S., Canada, Switzerland, EU and Japan, to ease liquidity problems, as borrowting rates for Italy edged up to 8% and rates for Spain, France, and other EU coountries edged higher. A German bond auction saw weak response.
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Draghi addresses the issue of large scale purchases of bonds of Italy and Spain to ease pressure on bond yields, by leaving open the possibility of action if the EU countries take the necessary steps for a strict budgetary framework.
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The EU Summit, December 9, 2011
12/09/2011
The German position not to allow large scale bond buying by the ECB remained unchanged. The focus continued on getting debt brakes and fiscal discipline rules set for the eurozone members. The ECB's Mario Draghi opposes central banks of Europe sending money to the IMF which would be used to support EU countries with debt problems. The ECB lowered interest rates by 0.25% for the eurozone, bringing interest rates to 1%, and reversing earlier ECB policies under Trichet that increased rates. In addition the ECB will provide unlimited funding to European commercial banks for longer maturities of 3 years, instead of the current 1 year maturity.
Grouped Articles
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British Prime Minister Cameron’s veto of E.U. pact splinters his coalition - The Washington Post
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Leaders Grow Further Apart on Solutions
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Euro Treaty to Require Only 9 Nations for Ratification
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The U.S. Fed's crisis dollar-lending program with the ECB and the central banks of U.K. , Canada, Japan and Switzerland in 2011
06/29/2011
Extension of the dollar-lending program beyond August 2, 2011 by the Fed as the eurozone faces the crisis in Greece.
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Italy- government debt, credit ratings, and borrowing costs 2010-2013
05/14/2010
Italy's borrowing costs went up to 5.7% a week after the July 22, 2011 eurozone debt deal for Greece.
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Italian Vote Turns in Bonds' Favor
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The urgency for recapitalization of European banks in 2011-2015
07/13/2011
EU banks face potential losses of 300 billion euros from troubled EU countries. 120 billion euros from Italy, Spain and Belgium, 60 billion euros from Greece, 20 billion euros from Ireland and Portugal, and $100 billion euros from other banking exposure, accordig to the IMF. IMF managing director, Christine Lagarde, has pointed to the urgent need for recapitalization of European banks,urgently because restricted lending by EU banks in the absence of recapitalization could further damage the economies of EU countries.
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Central Bank Details Somber State of Europe’s Banking System
New York Times 10/13/2014
Wall Street Journal 07/04/2015
The Banker Who Is No Longer Welcome in Restaurants
Wall Street Journal 01/27/2016
Italy Agrees on Fund to Support Battered Lenders
Wall Street Journal 04/12/2016
Europe's Banks.
07/09/2010
Issues of European banks, including recapitalization.
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Europe's Elusive Stash of Cash
Wall Street Journal 07/09/2010
Crisis Awaits Worldâs Banks as Trillions Come Due
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European banks: The last idealists
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French Banks Warned on Their Greek Debt
Wall Street Journal 06/16/2011
Wall Street Journal 07/13/2011
U.S. Bank Stocks Fall on Anxiety About Europe
New York Times 08/18/2011
Spain's Cajas savings banks
02/25/2010
Grouped Articles
Spanish Banks More Vulnerable Than Italy's
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New York Times 05/17/2013
The Pain in Spain Falls Mainly on the Cajas
BusinessWeek 02/25/2010
Economist 05/29/2010
Spain's cajas: Thinking outside the box
Economist 07/31/2010
Spain's banks: Two cheers, three tiers
Economist 10/02/2010
Italy's banks 2010-2016
06/25/2011
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Wall Street Journal 07/13/2011
Bank of Italy Inspecting Top Lenders' Books
Wall Street Journal 07/30/2013
Wall Street Journal 10/10/2013
Italian Banks' Woes Hurt Small Firms
Wall Street Journal 12/02/2013
Italian Banks are the Weakest Performers in E.C.B. Review
New York Times 10/26/2014
The Banker Who Is No Longer Welcome in Restaurants
Wall Street Journal 01/27/2016
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