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The Engine That Pulled Us Out of Recession

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U.S. exports reached $2.34 trillion in 2014, increasing by $760 billion over the figure in 2009, according to the Commerce Department. Exports accounted for one third of the U.S. economic growth since 2009, say Pritzker and McNerney. Goods and services for exports supported 11.7 million U.S. jobs in 2014, and a Commerce Department 2010 paper shows these jobs pay 18% higher than jobs unrelated to exports. Commerce Department Secretary Pritzker, and McNerney, chairman of the President's Export Council, say free trade agreements and investment by private business is critical to supporting export promotion, but make no mention of the effect of the stronger dollar on future exports. In a period of a few months in 2015 the euro is approaching parity with the dollar and the yen is now 120 to the dollar, giving European and Japanese business a significant advantage, and raising questions about the strength of the U.S. recovery going forward.

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This includes Krugman, recent Nobel Prize winner, Morici, University of Maryland, Hatzius of Goldman and Kasman of JP Morgan. Other experts also welcome the depreciation ogf the dollar as long as it is not a sudden drop. With consumers strapped, quantitiative easing reaching its limits, the stimulus in place, rising unemployment in 2010 and very poor capacity utilization, exports are a sure way to lift the economy. Morici and Krugman see a Chinese disconnect with it siphonig growth away from other countries through keeping its currency low. Morici cites the example of solar panels where China requires 75% domestic content for imports.

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Export or die.

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