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Oil policies will be decided by the same group of advisors around King Abdullah. As most advisors, including oil minister Naimi, 79, who conducts OPEC negotiations, are from an older generation, the long term future remains uncertain.
Grouped Articles
New King in Saudi Arabia Unlikely to Alter Oil Policy
New York Times 01/23/2015
Washington Post 01/24/2015
Washington Post 01/24/2015
King Salman of Saudi Arabia Names Mohammed bin Nayef Next in Line of Succession
New York Times 04/29/2015
A Saudi Royal Shake-Up With a Goal of Stability
New York Times 04/29/2015
Young Saudi Royals Rise as Kingdom Tries to Assert Regional Leadership
Wall Street Journal 04/30/2015
With Iran expected to add its production to supplies following lifting of sanctions in 2016, the Saudis would lose market share if they cut production. The Saudis are also on opposite sides with Iran and the Shiite government in Iraq, in the Middle East conflict. Russia is also on the opposite side of this conflict. As a result the Saudis are likely to stick to policy of full production with no cutbacks for the long term. When the Saudis made the policy decision at OPEC meetings in 2014 to not cut back on production as prices declined, it may have been done with the idea of revising policy later on. In 2016 with added Iranian production, this flexibility is diminished. Russia's bombing campaign in Syria, and its ability to withstand sanctions and low oil prices because of a declining ruble, and the cutoff in diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, have put all sides in an economic war of attrition. The Saudis with $630 billion in reserves also see the ability to withstand low oil prices for the long term. Low oil prices help boost economies in the U.S, European Union, Japan, India, China, Turkey, and other countries as the global economy slows down in 2016.
Grouped Articles
Saudi Arabia Keeps Pumping Oil, Despite Financial and Political Risks
New York Times 01/27/2016
Oil-Price Poker: Why the Saudis Won’t Fold ‘Em
Wall Street Journal 02/01/2016
Oil Output Freeze Is an Agreement With a Catch
New York Times 02/16/2016
Young Saudis See Cushy Jobs Vanish Along With Nation’s Oil Wealth
New York Times 02/16/2016
Weak Oil Prices Curbing Production
Wall Street Journal 04/13/2016
How OPEC lost control of the oil market - The Washington Post
Washington Post 04/15/2016
Grouped Articles
IEA Cuts Outlook for Oil-Demand Growth by 22%
Wall Street Journal 10/15/2014
Refining Saudi Arabia’s Oil Strategy
Wall Street Journal 11/03/2014
OPEC Members Nearing Compromise on Supply Cuts
Wall Street Journal 11/26/2014
Energy Quakes as OPEC Stands Pat
Wall Street Journal 11/28/2014
Iraq Agrees on Kurdistan Oil Deal
Wall Street Journal 12/02/2014
Saudi Arabia Sees Oil Prices Stabilizing Around $60 a Barrel
Wall Street Journal 12/04/2014
Grouped Articles
OPEC Rift Emerging Over Iraq Output, Possible Return of Iran
Wall Street Journal 11/30/2013
OPEC, Foreseeing No Glut, Keeps Oil Production Level Steady
New York Times 12/04/2013
Venezuela Could Force Oil Market to Take Stock
Wall Street Journal 02/24/2014
Oil Prices Continue Decline, Pressured by Saudi Action to Defend Market Share
New York Times 10/02/2014
OPEC Members’ Discord Adds to Slide in Oil Prices
Wall Street Journal 10/04/2014
Oil Markets Fly Into a Perfect Storm
Wall Street Journal 10/09/2014
Each side the Saudis, the Russia, and Iran is looking at the drop in oil prices and how much it can absorb using sovereign reserves as lower prices leads to budget deficits in 2015-2016. Russia and Iran face greater problems with western sanctions, and falling currency values exacerbating rising inflation. Other OPEC countries such as Venezuela and Nigeria face a crisis from falling revenues. In the U.S. this will affect shale oil production as less efficient producers shut down plants, with the overall outlook of lower oil prices being positive.
Grouped Articles
Fall in Oil Prices Poses a Problem for Russia, Iraq and Others
New York Times 10/15/2014
The Oil Price Swoon Won’t Stop the Shale Boom
Wall Street Journal 10/23/2014
As Oil Prices Plummet, Saudi Arabia Faces a Test of Strategy
New York Times 10/15/2014
Refining Saudi Arabia’s Oil Strategy
Wall Street Journal 11/03/2014
Saudi Price Cut Upends Oil Market
Wall Street Journal 11/04/2014
OPEC Members Nearing Compromise on Supply Cuts
Wall Street Journal 11/26/2014
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