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Oil prices, financial markets sink after production limit plan fails - The Washington Post
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As expected Iran boycotts the talks in Doha of 16 major oil producers seeking to stabilize oil prices. Saudi Arabia, Russia, Qatar and Venezuela sought to stabilize oil production at January levels to support oil prices. Wth the Saudia and Russia producing all out, Iran seeks to do the same, effectively closing the door on any agreement to freeze production levels.
Iran's oil exports in 2016 as economic sanctions are lifted in Jan. 2016
01/17/2016
Experts say Iran's oil exports will only gradually increase to about 400,000 in 6 months, because it is in Iran's interest not to depress oil prices further than $30 a barrel.
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With Iran expected to add its production to supplies following lifting of sanctions in 2016, the Saudis would lose market share if they cut production. The Saudis are also on opposite sides with Iran and the Shiite government in Iraq, in the Middle East conflict. Russia is also on the opposite side of this conflict. As a result the Saudis are likely to stick to policy of full production with no cutbacks for the long term. When the Saudis made the policy decision at OPEC meetings in 2014 to not cut back on production as prices declined, it may have been done with the idea of revising policy later on. In 2016 with added Iranian production, this flexibility is diminished. Russia's bombing campaign in Syria, and its ability to withstand sanctions and low oil prices because of a declining ruble, and the cutoff in diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, have put all sides in an economic war of attrition. The Saudis with $630 billion in reserves also see the ability to withstand low oil prices for the long term. Low oil prices help boost economies in the U.S, European Union, Japan, India, China, Turkey, and other countries as the global economy slows down in 2016.
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A nuclear deal reached in 2015 would reduce economic sanctions. The economic sanctions since 2012 have cut Iran's sales of crude to 1-2 million barrels a day, half of normal production levels. The extra crude following a succesful nuclear negotiated deal would keep oil prices low for an extended period.
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Spencer Jakab of the WSJ says the Saudis are not likely to change current policy of full output with no cuts, because of Middle East politics and the conflcit with Iran and Russia.
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The significant impact on the Canadian economy and on Alberta of the lower prices for Canada's shale oil. Discounts for Canada's shale oil relative to Brent crude benchmark international oil pricesand U.S. benchmark price range from 20 to 50%. Canada's shale oil was Dat $80 per barrel in April 2013, compared to $94 for U.S. benchmark price and $106 for Brent international crude oil price. This has reduced GDP in Canada for 2012 by 0.4% for the second half of 2012, according to Canada's central bank. GDP growth is sluggish at 1.8% for 2012. The impact in lower government tax and royalty revenues is significant for Alberta.
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