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Wage Rises in China May Ease Slowdown

Wall Street Journal Original article ›

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China is not experiencing high unemployment in 2012 the way it did in 2009. The lower growth rate of 7-8% is not having an adverse impact on unemployment. This makes it possible for the stimulus this time to be much smaller. There is rising upward pressure on wages. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, CEIC and WSJ, average annual wages at private sector manufacturing companies in current U.S. dollars was up 5% in 2009, 16% in 2010, and 20% in 2011. This is being encouraged by the government as China gradually shifts its economy towards higher domestic consumption and better standards of living for workers. Hon Hai Precision Industry Company added 82,000 workers in China in 2011. Salaries at the Shenzen plant were 2200 yuan or $345 a month in February 2012, an increase of 10%. An April survey by Manpower Group showed that a majority of companies will increase workers or hold employment stable, only 3% of companies will have job cuts. Demographic changes are also playing a part-with fewer people in the 15-19 age range, dropping from 120 million in 2005 to 95 million in 2015, according to UN estimates. The number of migrant workers remains steady at 252 million in 2012, up 4% from 242 million in 2010, according to the Bureau of National Statistics.

China's jobs situation, unemployment, stimulus and growth strategies in 2012-2015

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The excess demand for labor in China in 2012 compared to the excess supply of labor during the global financial crisis of 2008-2009. This has implications for stimulus spending plans, with the measured and selective response in 2012. Another factor is inflation with a 20% rise in wages in the manufacturing sector in 2011, according to the China statistics bureau, so that a large stimulus risks losing the benefits onf anti-inflationary steps taken in 2011-2012. High growth was intended to keep social stability, with excess demand for labor in 2012 this is less of a priority.

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