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New Push for Reform in China
Keywords:
A new report, "China: 2030," by the World Bank and the Development Research Center (DRC), has major implications for the course of action taken by new Chinese leaders. The limits to China's economic model with the dominant role of state owned companies has been pointed out in the past. It has now reached a point where China must choose to move to a modified model or face the "middle income trap" of countries like Brazil and Mexico, where income levels and growth reaches a certain level and then decelerates suddenly with little warning. The report makes some major recommendations that would modify the current system. It says the state owned companies should be supervised by asset management firms focussed on commercializing these companies, and not supervised by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC). The asset management firms would restrict the state owned companies on what areas they participate and sell off businesses to make it possible for private companies to compete. Zoellick says- "China needs to restrict the role of the state-owned companies, break up monopolies, diversify ownership and lower entry barriers to private firms." The state owned companies would be required to pay sharply higher dividends to the government which could then be used for social programs. Currently state owned companies invest in land which is sold by local governments for revenue helping fuel the real estate bubble. Significantly, the report had its origins when it was proposed by Mr. Zoellick, head of the World Bank, during a visit to Beijing in Sept 2010. It was supported by Li Keqiang, then vice premier, and now expected to be the new prime minister of China. The World Bank is widely respected by Chinese leaders because of its assistance during the early stages of reform in the 1980's. The DRC reports to China's State Council, a top governmental institution, and the No. 2 person at DRC, Liu He, is a senior advisor to the Politburo Standing Committee. He helped draft the current five year plan and is close to Li and Xi Jinping, the next president of China. The SASAC has opposed these ideas, especially any shift in its personnel selection of management at the state owned companies, which it shares with the Communist party's personnel department. Respected China economists say China faces large risks of a sudden sharp slowdown because the the state owned companies have largely copied foreign technology and have not generated enough technological advances, which will be needed for the next stage of growth. Lower growth rates could worsen problems in China's banking system leading to a crisis. The Conference Board, estimates China's growth at 8% for 2012, slowing to an average annual growth rate of 6.6% from 2013 to 2016. Barry Eichengreen of UC Berkeley, Donghyun Park of the Asian Development Bank, and Kwanho Shin of Korea University, say the annual growth rate will drop by at least 2 percentage points by 2015.
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Villagerâs Suspicious Death Ignites Fury in China
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China's banking system in 2010-2015
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Chinese Banks' Divided Capital
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Chinese Bank Regulator Warns of Loan Risks
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Profit Growth Is Slowing at China’s Biggest Banks
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The World Bank and the Development Research Center (DRC) Report "China: 2030"
01/06/2008
A government Chinese think tank, the DRC, and the World Bank collaborate to write a report on the best future direction for China's economy. World Bank president Zoellick's suggestion for writing this report was endorsed by Li Keqiang, who will become the new prime minister of China.
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Fixing a Perception Gap for the Underappreciated G-20
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Zhou Xiaochuan, head of the People's Bank of China, China's central bank, and the Development Research Center (DRC) think tank
02/23/2012
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Zoellick calls for an approach from China that avoids the mistakes of the rampant credit expansion and investment of the 2008 Stimulus.
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Linked Articles
China's Central Banker Leads Push to Overhaul Economy
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Wall Street Journal 02/23/2012
Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang, as the leaders of China after 2012, and the future direction of the economy.
02/23/2012
A gradual change away from the dominance of state owned companies as China shifts direction. The World Bank-DRC Report as the first step in this direction, marking the beginning of the beginning.
Linked Articles
Xi Appeals for 'Purity' Amid Party Scandal
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Wall Street Journal 02/23/2012
The problems of lack of balanced development, higher inequality, and slowing growth under current economic policy in China
02/23/2012
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 10/03/2012
Wall Street Journal 02/23/2012
The Jinping-Keqiang administration in China- new economic policy team and agenda
02/23/2012
Linked Articles
China Names Its New Foreign Policy Team
New York Times 03/16/2013
Wall Street Journal 02/23/2012
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