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Gray Matters in Booming China
Keywords:
The gradual fading of China's demographic dividend. This is the reason some analysts believe India's growth rate will surpass China's by 2013 to 2015. The World Bank reflects this in its growth rate estimates for China, which slow from 8.7% in 2009 to 7.7% in 2015, and 6.7% in 2020. One reason for this is that India's age dependency ratio, which reflects how many wage earners support older people, is rising, and China's is declining- with experts expecting that trend to continue till 2040.
Will India lose its demographic dividend as growth slows down?
02/21/2010
The large increase in working age population offers India an opportunity to increase economc growth as large numbers of jobs are expected to migrate from China to lower wage counries. The Economist says the risks are growing as India's growth slows because of a shortage of capital for investments in infrastructure and development, failure of policies to promote growth, and weak governance.
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The fertility rate is estimated by one the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences to be at most 1.6, having dropped from close to 3 when the policy was introduced in 1980. Does this policy make sense as the population ages ask critics in the Chinese media? The impact of demographics on China's future.
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