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Unemployment at 14.6%, with 60% long term unemployed, and a worsening of the economic crisis in Ireland in 2012
03/01/2012
The situation in Ireland is worse now than it was in 2010 after the burst of the housing bubble and the failure of its banking system.
Linked Articles
A Bedraggled 'Celtic Tiger' Struggles to Retrain Workers
Wall Street Journal 04/20/2012
Ireland becomes a test for E.U. crisis remedy - The Washington PostWashington Post 03/01/2012
Greece and EU in 2015- (4) How are the structural issues such as tax evasion in Greece being tackled, after Monti's effort to tackle this in Italy in 2012?
02/18/2012
Surprisingly the Syriza government in 6 months in office did not come up with a plan to implement for tax evasion. This was a major issue for the IMF and in Greece's interest, even though it was going contrary to long standing practice in Greece as it was in Italy. Estimates of lost revenue are about $11 billion each year for tax evasion. By comparison the IMF payment due was less than $2 billion on June 30, 2015. Sustainable long term finances make this a major issue in Greece's own interest. Greece has an aging population and the number of retirees are growing in relation to young working people making this an important issue for stable finances under any administration, and regardless of the euro.
Linked Articles
How Greek tax evasion sunk the global economy
Washington Post 07/10/2012
A Hollow Target for Greek DebtWall Street Journal 02/18/2012
The U.S. unemployment rate and the long term unemployed dropping out of the labor market (2)- 2011-2013
12/12/2011
Ezra Klein points out that the real unemployment rate in November 2011 was 11%- when taking into account the long term unemployed dropping out of the labor market- not about 9%.
Linked Articles
Piecing Together the Job-Picture Puzzle
Wall Street Journal 03/12/2012
Wonkbook: The real unemployment rate is 11 percent - The Washington PostWashington Post 12/12/2011
The U.S. unemployment rate and the long term unemployed dropping out of the labor market (1)- 2010-2013
12/10/2011
Harvard labor economist Lawrence Katz says the long term unemployed who are dropping out of the labor market represent one of three job crises facing America. The other two are the effects of manufacturing automation reducing demand for workers in new plants, and the effects of foreclosures and debt.
Linked Articles
Piecing Together the Job-Picture Puzzle
Wall Street Journal 03/12/2012
The Next First (and Only) 100 DaysNew York Times 12/10/2011
Harvard labor economist Lawrence Katz's solutions to the job crises and high unemployment in the U.S.
09/06/2011
Katz suggest a number of steps including a subsidy for companies creating new jobs. A form of this subsidy is used in Germany with the "kurzarbeit" program which preserves jobs in a downturn. Katz reminds us that there are three job crises facing America- long term unemployed not reflected in government unemployment figures, effects of foreclosures and debt, and the impact of automation with lower job creation in manufacturing. A sustained andmultipronged approach over a number of years is needed and no single panacea or misguided optimism will work.
Linked Articles
The Next First (and Only) 100 Days
New York Times 12/10/2011
Help Displaced WorkersNew York Times 09/06/2011
The politicizing of the 2011 U.S. budget process- election points and Obama's political team
07/07/2011
Krugman points to the possibility that the President's political team may be trying to score political points with independent voters witht he budget.
Linked Articles
Budget Shell Games Are Contrary to Law
Wall Street Journal 07/14/2011
Negotiating the Debt Ceiling on a Knife's EdgeNew York Times 07/07/2011
The Wall Street Journal calls the June 2011 E.U. plan for Greece "the French deception," and the Economist says it is doomed to failure
06/30/2011
Doubling the interest rate on loans owed by Greece to French and German banks is called "the French deception" by the Journal . The Economist sees the sharp spending cuts and tax increases having enough detrimental impact on economic growth to make the debt load larger than before.
Linked Articles
Greece and the euro: The abuses of austerity
Economist 07/02/2011
The French DeceptionWall Street Journal 06/30/2011
Basic misunderstanding- (1) one point in the Israel- U.S. relationship on May 20, 2011, with president Obama's call for a return to pre-1967 borders
05/20/2011
When Ambassador Oren says Obama abandoned Israel, he refers to the "surprises" and "no daylight" or open disagreements that marked the relationship during the two terms of the Obama administration. One such point was on May 20, 2011, with Obama's call for pre-1967 borders.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 06/16/2015
Netanyahu Rejects Obama Compromises on TalksNew York Times 05/20/2011
Mario Cuomo and Andy Cuomo- dissonance and affinity
04/07/2011
Mario Cuomo's speech is cited by Matt Bai where he refers to the concern for helping the poor without crushing the middle class and the tone shifting now to helping the middle class without crushing the poor. As Andy Cuomo goes for another term as governor of New York, voters talk about the elder Cuomo and show acceptance but a lack of enthusiasm for the younger Cuomo.
Linked Articles
A Tepid Thumbs Up Is the Best Many Can Muster for Cuomo
New York Times 11/02/2014
Mario Cuomo, Available for Elder Statesman DutyNew York Times 04/07/2011
Fitting a long term trend line to the Case-Shiller Index Peter Schiff says the index should be at 126. It was 159 in Oct 2010.
12/30/2010
Linked Articles
The Sickness Beneath the Slump - Economic View
New York Times 06/11/2011
Home Prices Are Still Too HighWall Street Journal 12/30/2010
Voter preference for third parties creates a long term shift to coalition government in Britain.
05/13/2010
Conservative and Labor parties received only 65% of the vote in the 2010 U.K. elections.
Linked Articles
Economist 05/13/2010
Britain's accidental revolutionEconomist 05/13/2010
World Bank chief Zoellick on the global economy and how to prepare an effective long tem policy
10/02/2009
Zoellick sees the short term Stimulus and central bank monetary easing policies of 2008, as not appropriate to the long term problems of debt reduction and energy price volatility. He emphasizes the need for bridge financing for Spain and Italy though he accepts the German view that credit cannot be provided freely and reforms need to be undertaken. A partial euro bond solution is a step in the right direction.
Linked Articles
World Bank Chief Urges Euro Bonds
Wall Street Journal 05/31/2012
2010 Looks 'Highly Uncertain,' Zoellick SaysWall Street Journal 10/02/2009
Steven Rattner of Quadrangle, private equity firm, heads the team that is advising Obama on GM and Chrysler.
04/06/2009
So far Rattner is getting good points for his advice and his work for the President. His bacground at Brown University, the NYTimes, Lehman, Morgan Stanley, Lazard and Quadrangle.
Linked Articles
Rattner Rises as Obama's Mr. Fix-It
Wall Street Journal 04/06/2009
Obama’s Top Auto Industry TroubleshooterNew York Times 04/06/2009
The Jinping-Keqiang administration in China- new economic policy team and agenda
02/23/2012
Linked Articles
China Names Its New Foreign Policy Team
New York Times 03/16/2013
New Push for Reform in ChinaWall Street Journal 02/23/2012
The IMF's view on austerity measures, the "German hypothesis," and the British economy
02/17/2012
The IMF's view is that it could take 5 years before the breakeven point on the effects of austerity measures is reached and it turns positive. The "German hypothesis" based on German experience as an exporting nation is that the benefits come sooner in the short term. For Britain, which is not an exporting nation like Germany, the benefits from exports are likely to be limited when the rest of Europe is'seeing declining or stagnant growth. The IMF view means Britain may be faced with the costs of the Cameron-Osborne austerity measures till 2016.
Linked Articles
Britain's Economy Contracts More Than Predicted
New York Times 03/28/2012
Austerity Debate a Matter of DegreeWall Street Journal 02/17/2012
Looking behind the unemployment numbers to better guage unemployment levels in the U.S. in 2011-2013
12/12/2011
Including the long term unemployed who quit working after months of furitless searching gives a better sense of the real level of unemployment in the U.S. Reconciling the Establishment Survey with the Household Survey using the third measure developed by the Labor Department which adjusts for multiple jobs held by one person and self employed farm workers, and adjusting for weather conditions, also helps give a better picture.
Linked Articles
Number of the Week: Did U.S. Actually Shed 195,000 Jobs in July?
Wall Street Journal 08/04/2012
Wonkbook: The real unemployment rate is 11 percent - The Washington PostWashington Post 12/12/2011
The importance of long term bond buyers to restoring confdence in Italian and Spanish government bonds in 2012-2013
12/02/2011
Large institutional buyers such as insurance companies and pension funds have exited the market for Italian and Spanish government bonds creating a great deal of instability in the market and pushing up yields as aresult fo the fear factor. The need for the ECB to take up large scale purchase of bonds to induce these longterm buyers to return to the market and restore a measure of confidence. The June 28 summit authorized the rescue fund, the European Stability Mechanism (ESM or EFSF) to make these purchases, but experts say it has only 248 billion euros and needs to go back to markets for additional funding.
Linked Articles
Return of Long-Term Bond Buyers Seen as Crucial to Europe
New York Times 06/29/2012
A Euro Crisis Deal EmergesWall Street Journal 12/02/2011
Alan Meltzer and Thomas Hoenig's criticism of Federal Reserve Bank chairman Bernake's failure to look at long term consequences of low rates
08/11/2011
Hoenig points to the Fed's lowered rates in 2003 after the burst of the dot com bubble and higher unemployment of 6.5% in 2003 and Meltzer which led to the mortgage meltdown of 2008. Meltzer points to QE II's $600 billion monetary easing in 2010 which failed to revive the economy or reduce unemployment in 2011. They emphasize the Fed's lack of attention to the long term consequences of their actions. Both question the role of the Fed in creating jobs and see the role of the Fed as a neutral player, as deeper structural changes such as ashift to export driven economy, lower consumption take time and are only delayed by a continuation of old policies.
Linked Articles
Kansas City Fed President Defies Conventional Wisdom
New York Times 08/13/2011
The Folly of Economic Short-TermismWall Street Journal 08/11/2011
The June 2011 European Union plan for Greece faces strong criticism for being unworkable
07/01/2011
This plans doubles the interest rate for Greece debt owed to French and German banks under a French banking proposal. Sharp spending cuts and tax increases face opposition inside Greece and their negative impact on economic growth may leave Greece with a much larger debt to GDP ratio in 2011 than in 2010.
Linked Articles
Greece and the euro: The abuses of austerity
Economist 07/02/2011
Move Buys Time for Greece, But Growing Debt LoomsWall Street Journal 07/01/2011
Greece, Europe and the Austerity Measures- "The French Deception" and "The Tragic Sideshow" (2)
06/30/2011
Two WSJ editorials tell the story for what it is in 2010-2012.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 02/22/2012
The French DeceptionWall Street Journal 06/30/2011
Austerity measures and economic contraction in Portugal 2010-2013- the terms of the 2011 EU-IMF loan agreement with Portugal
05/05/2011
The forecasts of higher unemployment reaching 17% and economic contraction of 7% for 2011-2013 are widely diverging from the original estimates in 2011 by EU and IMF officials. This increases the urgency for reappraisal of the terms of the original agreement including borrowing rates, giving more time to achieve deficit targets, and other action to put Portugal back on the road to growth in 2014.
Linked Articles
Portugal to Seek New Bailout Terms
Wall Street Journal 03/04/2013
Government Sees Deep Recession Ahead for PortugalNew York Times 05/05/2011
Angela Merkel's experience with the reunification of East and West Germany and her views of the eurozone crisis
01/30/2011
The perceptions of the eurozone crisis of ordinary Germans and of former East German Angela Merkel are colored by the period of reunification of the two Germany's. This was paid for with a"solidarity surcharge" tax paid by Germans amounting to $1.7 trillion and led in its early stages to 4 million unemployed in the eastern part and 20% unemployment. It took over a decade for East Germany to build new modernized industries in the larger cities of the east, but still leaves the rural parts of former East Germany in a neglected state as young peoplemoved out. During this period industry in the west also regained lost global competitiveness, especially in industries such as automobiles and advanced machinery, using wage restraint agreements with unions and increases in productivity. Germans see the need for eurozone countries in the southern part of Europe needing to make similiar sacrifices and see the tax evasion in Italy and Greece as unacceptable. The real estate bubble, the lack of transparency for banks bad loans, and out of control regional spending in Spain is also seen in a similiar light. Greece is seen as the most egregious offendor because of the bad financial accounting that grossly understated the extent of the bad loans. Less publicized in Germany is the role played in the bad loans through poor lending practices of German and French banks and that as experts have pointed out Germany was to some extent bailing out German banks when it was bailing out Greece- till German banks reduced their exposure to Greece in 2011.
Linked Articles
In former East Germany, anxious residents resent paying for Europe’s problems - The Washington Post
Washington Post 06/21/2012
Merkel's Defense of Euro Forged in East GermanyNew York Times 01/30/2011
Taylor and Cochrane say the French and German banks exaggerated the effects of contagion in the Greece debt crisis from the beginning
12/02/2010
Prof. Cochrane at the University of Chicago and Prof. Taylor at Stanford University, say French and German banks exaggerated the effects of contagion from the beginning as a way to delay writedowns on Greek bonds held by the banks. The appearance of lurching from one summit negotiation to the next throughout 2011 dented confidence in the eurozone with slowing or negative growth in eurozone economies, and is likely to hurt banks operating in the new economic enviroment.
Linked Articles
'Contagion' and Other Euro Myths
Wall Street Journal 12/02/2010
A Better Grecian BailoutWall Street Journal 02/22/2012
The need for a new European economic government to back the euro currency.
04/29/2010
The French view that there should be a common economic government and clear institutional responsibilities and the German view that is not so willing to cede national sovereignty in economic matters. The fiscal and structural flaws that need to be repaired for the euro currency to work.
Linked Articles
Economist 05/13/2010
As Greek Drama Plays Out, Where Is Europe?New York Times 04/29/2010
Views of experts from Raghuram Rajan, Paul Krugman and Simon Johnson are at odds with the Obama administration's recycling of prior Paulson's bank rescue plans
04/21/2009
Rajan and Johnson call for smaller, more transparent financial institutions through the government takeover of insolvent banks and breaking them up into smaller financial institutions that pose less risk to the country's economy and are easier to manage, and less prone to excessive risk taking. And they propose crafting policy and antitrust laws to make this work. Questions raised about the administration having too many people on its economic team who are deferential to Wall Street and not with a mindset that questions key assumptions -some call them sacred cows- that are put forward by Wall Street.
Linked Articles
Economists Seek Breakup of Big Banks
Wall Street Journal 04/21/2009
Time for Bank Creditors to Share the Pain?New York Times 04/29/2009
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