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A Hollow Target for Greek Debt
Keywords:
The artificial nature of the target of debt to GDP of 120% for Greece in 2020. This is the target being followed in negotiations by the troika of the ECB, IMF and the EU. Experts say the sustainable level would be much lower for Greece -this would be much lower because of the aging population in Greece and lower level of workers to support retirees in future years, the inefficient tax collection system and poor prospects for changing it, the degree of control over monetary policy and the rate of change of debt. A recent study by the Bank for International Settlements shows debt sustainability at 85% after studying 18 countries from 1980 to 2010. No precise source has been found for the 120% target. An IMF Report in 2011 said the 120% was the "maximum level considered sustainable." Alan Auerbach at UC Berkeley and Michael Woodford at Columbia University, say the additional factors are relevant to Greece. The many unpredictables over the course of ten years is another serious difficulty.
Greece and the illusory nature of the troika's (ECB, IMF, EU) target for debt to GDP of 120% in 2020
06/30/2011
The artificial nature of the target especially considering all the unpredictables invoved.
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A estimated one third of the workforce is in the public sector in Greece placing a large burden on the government budget. Nominal private sector labor costs went up by 62% in Greece compared to 15% in Germany for the period 2000-2008. Much of this was done through the government spending of borrowed money. The smaller private sector with only small productivity gains and the weak tax collection was never going to be able to support the large number of civil servants. Carney says the 30,000 reduction in the number of civil servants agreed to for 2010 has not been done, raising questions about implementation of the 150,000 in reductions required by the EU.
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Actions taken by EU leaders in 2011-2012 to resolve the debt crisis in member countries.
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Greece needs to lower prices by 31% just to get to the level of Turkey, says the head of the Ifo research institute in Germany, Wener Sinn. Experts fear a breakdown in civil order inside Greece if deflation at this level occurs with Greece still using the euro. Hollande, the Socialist party candidate in France, also expressed similiar concerns, as reported in the New York Times, calling it a breakup in European governance that followed the breakdown in Greek governance. Sinn says the bondholders are overly exaggerating the risks of a breakup in the eurozone if Greece exits the euro.
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Christine Lagarde says Greece needs 2 more years to achieve deficit targets on Oct 11, 2013. She says the same approach of giveing more time to Portugal and Spain applies to Greece. This puts more pressure on Germany to provide new flexibility.
Grouped Articles
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Greece and EU in 2015- (4) How are the structural issues such as tax evasion in Greece being tackled, after Monti's effort to tackle this in Italy in 2012?
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Surprisingly the Syriza government in 6 months in office did not come up with a plan to implement for tax evasion. This was a major issue for the IMF and in Greece's interest, even though it was going contrary to long standing practice in Greece as it was in Italy. Estimates of lost revenue are about $11 billion each year for tax evasion. By comparison the IMF payment due was less than $2 billion on June 30, 2015. Sustainable long term finances make this a major issue in Greece's own interest. Greece has an aging population and the number of retirees are growing in relation to young working people making this an important issue for stable finances under any administration, and regardless of the euro.
Linked Articles
How Greek tax evasion sunk the global economy
Washington Post 07/10/2012
A Hollow Target for Greek Debt
Wall Street Journal 02/18/2012
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