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The Folly of Economic Short-Termism
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Allan Meltzer says a Fed QE III woud be bad monetary policy. He puts several questions to Bernanke- how the Fed and Ben Bernanke can know now what is the right interest rate policy in mid 2013, and what reason can the Fed give for adding excess reserves when U.S. banks have $1.6 trillion in idle reserves at the Fed. Meltzer cautions the Fed and other policymakers not to pay attention only to short term forecasts, which can be susceptible to large errors. And calls for attention to the long term consequences of their actions. One point he emphasizes is that the unemployment problem cannot be resolved with short term policy actions nor can it be resolved in a short time. It will take population growth, falling housing prices and rising rents to create opportunities for new construction. Another change is the transition to a less consumption driven and more export oriented economy. This transition which has started will also take time. He urges the Congress and the administration to focus on: reducing corporate tax rates by closing loopholes, long-term reductions in entitlement spending, a 5 year moratatorium on new regulations, and the Fed adopting an explicit inflation target between 0% and 2%.
Allan Meltzer's program for the economy and advice to the Fed and policymakers in 2011-2012
08/11/2011
Allan Meltzer on the dangers of a loose monetary policy and the need for an early exit strategy.
Grouped Articles
Once Again, the Fed Shies Away From the Exit Door
Wall Street Journal 07/11/2013
Bhidé and Phelps: Central Banking Needs Rethinking
Wall Street Journal 07/16/2013
The Folly of Economic Short-Termism
Wall Street Journal 08/11/2011
This Time, Maybe the U.S. Is Japan
Wall Street Journal 08/13/2011
Kansas City Fed President Defies Conventional Wisdom
New York Times 08/13/2011
From World War II, Economic Lessons for Today
New York Times 08/13/2011
Criticism of Bernanke's role at the Federal Reserve
01/02/2009
The difficult renomination and the subsequent 70-30 vote with 30 Senators opposed including Boxer, Feingold, Sanders and others. This follows Ron Paul's criticisms in Congress of the Fed's role- see that link group.
Grouped Articles
Martin Feldstein: The Federal Reserve's Policy Dead End
Wall Street Journal 05/09/2013
Bhidé and Phelps: Central Banking Needs Rethinking
Wall Street Journal 07/16/2013
Fed Chairmanâs Departure Casts a New Light on the Bush Legacy
New York Times 07/26/2013
Wanted: A Boring Leader for the Fed
New York Times 08/20/2013
Wall Street Journal 09/15/2013
What's Needed in the Next Fed Chief
New York Times 09/15/2013
Liquidity Trap in Japan and the U.S.
03/17/2008
With the demand curve for money horizontal further increases in the money supply do little to lower interest rates, or as in the current situation where the interest rates in the US are virtually at zero so that further increases in the money supply do little to stimulate the economy. As unemployment is growing and the financial sector weak, Bernanke and the Fed see other ways in which quantitative easing helps a recovery. Here Chritopher Woods compares today's situation in America to that of postbubble Japan. He says America is already in a liquidity trap. And the regulatory forbearance to cleanup the banking mess is similiar to that in postbubble Japan when it took the government years to get up the will and strength to straighten out the mess including breaking up the banks that are too big to fail.
Grouped Articles
Is the U.S. Economy Turning Japanese?
Wall Street Journal 10/27/2009
Economist 10/15/2009
Economist 12/30/2009
Fed’s Bullard Raises Policy Concerns
Wall Street Journal 07/29/2010
Opinions Are Split on Fed Policy Move
Wall Street Journal 11/01/2010
Ben S. Bernanke - What the Fed did and why: supporting the recovery and sustaining price stability
Washington Post 11/04/2010
Rents for housing and inflation in the U.S. - 2011-2012
06/09/2011
Rents for housing make up 40% of the core U.S. consumer price index. About 25% of April 2011's 1.3% rise in the CPI in the U.S. was from housing rent increases. Apartment vacancy rates are dropping as people prefer to rent. Analysts say the Fed may not be paying enough attention to this when it says the high unemployment levels will keep inflation down.
Grouped Articles
Where Rents Go, Will Inflation Follow?
BusinessWeek 06/09/2011
The Folly of Economic Short-Termism
Wall Street Journal 08/11/2011
Apartment-Vacancy Rate Tumbles to 2001 Level
Wall Street Journal 01/05/2012
The U.S. Federal Reserve's exit strategy from a loose monetary policy - 2011-2015
05/18/2011
Grouped Articles
Fed Officials Try to Set the Market at Ease
Wall Street Journal 06/24/2013
Wall Street Journal 07/11/2013
FX HORIZONS: The Fed’s Risky Codependency with Markets
Wall Street Journal 07/11/2013
Once Again, the Fed Shies Away From the Exit Door
Wall Street Journal 07/11/2013
Bhidé and Phelps: Central Banking Needs Rethinking
Wall Street Journal 07/16/2013
Bernanke Plays Down Link Between Jobless Rate, Fed Moves
Wall Street Journal 07/18/2013
A potential QE III and the U.S. economy
08/04/2011
Grouped Articles
Ex-Fed Officials Back More Stimulus
Wall Street Journal 08/04/2011
Central Banks Run Short of Policy Options
Wall Street Journal 08/04/2011
QE2-Inspired Stock Rally May Soon Disappear
Wall Street Journal 08/08/2011
Fed Pledges Low Rates Through 2013
Wall Street Journal 08/09/2011
The Folly of Economic Short-Termism
Wall Street Journal 08/11/2011
New York Times 08/25/2011
Lawrence Lindsey on how Bernanke's Fed has boxed itself in with no choice but to keep interest rates low and no clear exit strategy
01/04/2010
Economist Lindsey says Fed chairman Bernanke has to keep interest rates low for the U.S. government to be able to cope with the increase in borrowing costs that normal interest rates would bring. The normalized interest rate - the rate at which the U.S. government was able to borrow for the last three decades- is about 5.7%. At that rate the U.S. government would add $800 billion to borrowing costs for 2021, says Lindsey. The U.S. now borrows at about 2.5%
Grouped Articles
Once Again, the Fed Shies Away From the Exit Door
Wall Street Journal 07/11/2013
Wanted: A Boring Leader for the Fed
New York Times 08/20/2013
Reflections by America’s Buddha of Banking
New York Times 01/16/2014
Wall Street Journal 06/15/2011
Fed Darkens Its Outlook but Plans No Changes
Wall Street Journal 06/23/2011
The Deficit Is Worse Than We Think
Wall Street Journal 06/28/2011
Philadelphia Federal Reserve bank president Charles Plosser and other expert criticism of Fed chairman Bernanke's monetary policy.
01/04/2010
Plosser says the Fed cannot create jobs or retrain a workforce. In the short term the Fed can act against disinflation, says Plosser, but in the long term Fed policy such as the one being pursued by Bernanke can backfire and lead to more instability in the economy. The Dallas Fed President, Richard Fisher, expresses similiar views.
Grouped Articles
Martin Feldstein: The Federal Reserve's Policy Dead End
Wall Street Journal 05/09/2013
Once Again, the Fed Shies Away From the Exit Door
Wall Street Journal 07/11/2013
Bhidé and Phelps: Central Banking Needs Rethinking
Wall Street Journal 07/16/2013
Bravo for Bernanke and the QE Era
Wall Street Journal 01/20/2014
Wall Street Journal 01/18/2011
Wall Street Journal 02/09/2011
The probabilities of another round of quantitative easing or QE III in the U.S.
06/02/2011
Probabilities for a QE 3 in June 2011 are low, with inflation expected over the next 5 years at 2.8%, as suggested by TIPS. The Fed's thinking as reflected in comments by presidents of Fed regional banks is that there will be growth, even if it is "frustratingly slow at times." The Fed could act if a deflationary trend sets in. The extraordinary amount of liquidity- with about $2 trillion of bond purchases by the Fed since the 2008 crisis -acts as a counter weight to the housing slump, and to weak data for jobs and manufacturing.
Grouped Articles
Fed Holds Steady as Economy Slows
Wall Street Journal 06/02/2011
QE2-Inspired Stock Rally May Soon Disappear
Wall Street Journal 08/08/2011
The Folly of Economic Short-Termism
Wall Street Journal 08/11/2011
New York Times 08/25/2011
Wall Street Journal 08/31/2011
Divisions at Federal Reserve Led to Rate Compromise
New York Times 08/30/2011
Alan Meltzer and Thomas Hoenig's criticism of Federal Reserve Bank chairman Bernake's failure to look at long term consequences of low rates
08/11/2011
Hoenig points to the Fed's lowered rates in 2003 after the burst of the dot com bubble and higher unemployment of 6.5% in 2003 and Meltzer which led to the mortgage meltdown of 2008. Meltzer points to QE II's $600 billion monetary easing in 2010 which failed to revive the economy or reduce unemployment in 2011. They emphasize the Fed's lack of attention to the long term consequences of their actions. Both question the role of the Fed in creating jobs and see the role of the Fed as a neutral player, as deeper structural changes such as ashift to export driven economy, lower consumption take time and are only delayed by a continuation of old policies.
Linked Articles
Kansas City Fed President Defies Conventional Wisdom
New York Times 08/13/2011
The Folly of Economic Short-Termism
Wall Street Journal 08/11/2011
Short termism of an interventionist U.S. Federal Reserve and the advantages of a rule based monetary policy at the Fed
08/11/2011
John Taylor and Allan Meltzer point to the risks of short termism and discretionary policies at the Fed. Taylor says a single mandate for inflation should replace the current dual mandate for both inflation and unemployment so that monetary policy can be rule based avoiding the boom and bust periods hitting the U.S. economy in the last decade, when interest rates were set too low using discretionary policy.
Linked Articles
The Dangers of an Interventionist Fed
Wall Street Journal 03/29/2012
The Folly of Economic Short-Termism
Wall Street Journal 08/11/2011
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