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Move Buys Time for Greece, But Growing Debt Looms
Keywords:
Richard Portes of the London Business School provides two good reasons why the EU's decision to adopt the French Banking Federation's proposal for rollovers with 10% interest costs is a serious mistake. It doubles the interest costs from 4-6% to 10% with 2% Greek GDP growth and makes debt servicing untenable. Portes says the real Brady Plan from the 1980's included a 35-40% bondholders haircut. Deals of this type have a precedent- in Mexico in 1988 and in Argentina in 2001 such bond exchanges were soon followed by deals that placed bondholder haricuts on creditors. The lesson from Latin America in the 1980's, says Portes, is that the burdens of servicing a debt of such proportions under onerous conditions only extinguishes the enterprise, investment and productive capabilities of the particular country trying to service that debt, making the debt even less serviceable. See the Wall Street Journal's editorial on this deal which it calls "The French Deception." The terms sound like Greek to the editors leaving a sense that French banks are only saying "gimme." The only benefit achieved may be putting off the problem and avoiding contagion to Portugal and Spain. Yet this is not that much of a benefit when one realizes that the problem has not gone away, and is likely to look much worse six or nine months from now.
Richard Portes of the London Business School and other experts on the failures inherent in the EU's June 2011 Greece debt plan
06/22/2011
The EU's decision to adopt the French Banking Federation's plan that would double the cost of servicing Greece's debt will only make matters worse. This means increasing interest rates from 4-6% currently to 10% under 2% Greek economic growth, and makes debt servicing untenable. The adoption of similiar plans in the case of Mexico and Argentina in 2001, ended in failure a year after they were adopted, with private creditors taking losses. Financial markets see this with interest rates on Greek debt at 26%. Contagion might turn out to be worse as the situation deteriorates further.
Grouped Articles
EU Dismisses IMF's Criticism On Greek Bailout
Wall Street Journal 06/07/2013
What Greece Faces if It Defaults
New York Times 04/29/2015
If Greece Defaults, Imagine Argentina, but Much Worse
New York Times 06/25/2015
Move Buys Time for Greece, But Growing Debt Looms
Wall Street Journal 07/01/2011
Greece Approves Tough Measures on Economy
New York Times 06/29/2011
Wall Street Journal 06/30/2011
A Brady Plan type solution for the debt crises in Greece, Ireland, Portugal and other EU countries.
05/18/2010
Grouped Articles
EU Dismisses IMF's Criticism On Greek Bailout
Wall Street Journal 06/07/2013
Personalities Clashing Over How to Handle New Greek Bailout
New York Times 07/23/2015
Nervous Europe Trying to Halt Economic Crisis
New York Times 11/30/2010
Europe's Central Banker Seeks Deeper Fiscal Union
Wall Street Journal 06/03/2011
'Contagion' and Other Euro Myths
Wall Street Journal 12/02/2010
Greek Myths and the Euro Tragedy
Wall Street Journal 05/18/2010
Debt Restructuring for Greece- 2010-2012
04/18/2011
Grouped Articles
Policy âTroikaâ for Europe Financial Woes at Odds
New York Times 06/07/2013
Watch Athens, Not Paris, This Weekend
Wall Street Journal 05/04/2012
Expectations Grow for Greek Debt Restructuring
New York Times 04/18/2011
Wall Street Journal 04/20/2011
Investors Doubt Orthodoxy on Greek Debt
Wall Street Journal 05/02/2011
Greek Debt Talks Widen Divisions in the Euro Zone
Wall Street Journal 05/05/2011
Francois Hollande, Socialist party candidate for president in France, on the EU's handling of the debt crisis in Greece
06/30/2011
Francois Hollande says the EU mishandled the Greece crisis. Greece should have been handled as an extraordinary situation with earlier debt restructuring from public and private creditors to bring Greece's debt down to 60% of GDP. The current coordinated plan of the EU, ECB and the IMF only brings debt down to 120% of GDP in 2020. Hollande said he understands the need to reduce the budget deficit with cuts but without growth it can't work.
Grouped Articles
EU Dismisses IMF's Criticism On Greek Bailout
Wall Street Journal 06/07/2013
Policy âTroikaâ for Europe Financial Woes at Odds
New York Times 06/07/2013
French Candidate Hollande Assails European Policy on Greece
New York Times 02/13/2012
Athens Shaken by Riots After Vote for Greek Austerity Plan
New York Times 02/13/2012
Austerity Debate a Matter of Degree
Wall Street Journal 02/17/2012
Wall Street Journal 02/22/2012
Greece and prime minister Papandreou's Nov. 3, 2011 referendum proposal on the euro and austerity plans
07/01/2011
Grouped Articles
Europe, Athens Battle for Greek Hearts and Minds Ahead of Referendum
Wall Street Journal 06/30/2015
Hopeful Start to Greek Debt Negotiations Quickly Soured
New York Times 07/02/2015
Greek Referendum on Offer That Is Off the Table Baffles Voters
New York Times 07/02/2015
Why Not Give the Greeks Their Say?
New York Times 11/03/2011
Greek Leader Calls Off Referendum
New York Times 11/03/2011
Call for Greek Vote Unsettles Europe
Wall Street Journal 11/02/2011
Greece's debt crisis in 2012 after the agreement with private creditors to take 50% of the losses on Greek bonds is not enough to reduce debt to sustainable levels
06/30/2011
Bondholders accepting 50% of losses- as agreed with EU leaders in Nov-Dec 2011 -will not be enough for Greece to meet its debt obligations, because of a fast deteriorating economy. By March 20, 2012, 14.5 billion euros of bonds come up for repayment or refinancing. More money will be needed from the EU. The voluntary exchange by private creditors of existing bonds for new bonds with 50% face value and maturing over a longer period will be made under an agreement using English law. This will be harder to change in the future, putting the burden on any future financing shortfall on EU countries unwilling to make further commitments to Greece.
Grouped Articles
Greek Bonds Soar After Fitch Upgrade
Wall Street Journal 05/15/2013
EU Dismisses IMF's Criticism On Greek Bailout
Wall Street Journal 06/07/2013
Policy âTroikaâ for Europe Financial Woes at Odds
New York Times 06/07/2013
Greek Government Bonds Pay Off Big for Fund Managers
Wall Street Journal 10/28/2013
Europe Fears Rising Greek Cost
Wall Street Journal 01/11/2012
Wall Street Journal 01/14/2012
Greece's April 2012 elections
07/01/2011
Grouped Articles
Watch Athens, Not Paris, This Weekend
Wall Street Journal 05/04/2012
Greece at new risk of being pushed off euro - The Washington Post
Washington Post 05/08/2012
Greek Leaders Turn Focus to Preparing for Elections
New York Times 03/12/2012
Q&A With Greek Finance Minister Philippos Sachinidis
Wall Street Journal 04/24/2012
Greece, in Chaos, Faces Possible New Elections
New York Times 05/07/2012
Wall Street Journal 05/08/2012
The 436 million euro payment by Greece to bondholder holdout Dart Management on May 15, 2012
07/01/2011
The Greek government opted to make full payment to Dart fearing it would sue and tie up European bailout funds Greece needs. Other bondholders took a large haircut on their bonds under the March 2012 Greece restructuring deal. This is likely to worsen discontent in Greece before the second elections in June 2012.
Grouped Articles
Greek Government Bonds Pay Off Big for Fund Managers
Wall Street Journal 10/28/2013
Bet on Greek Bonds Paid Off for a Vulture Fund
New York Times 05/15/2012
Greek Bonds Rally on Hopes of Buyback
Wall Street Journal 11/22/2012
Move Buys Time for Greece, But Growing Debt Looms
Wall Street Journal 07/01/2011
Why most of the bailout loans to Greece actually go back to creditors as interest on debt
06/30/2011
Two thirds of the $177 billion in bailout loans to Greece since May 2010 from the IMF, ECB and EC actually went back to these creditors. The money route was setup in circular fashion with escrow accounts in Athens so that the money went right back as interest payments on debt.
Grouped Articles
A Warning Light to Alert the I.M.F.
New York Times 09/21/2011
EU Dismisses IMF's Criticism On Greek Bailout
Wall Street Journal 06/07/2013
Policy âTroikaâ for Europe Financial Woes at Odds
New York Times 06/07/2013
Past Rifts Over Greece Cloud Talks on Rescue
Wall Street Journal 10/07/2013
IMF Warns Eurozone That Greece Needs Far More Debt Relief
Wall Street Journal 07/15/2015
Personalities Clashing Over How to Handle New Greek Bailout
New York Times 07/23/2015
The view of the debt crisis from inside Greece- June 2011
03/03/2010
Grouped Articles
Greek Debt Crisis: The Back Story
New York Times 08/13/2011
Wall Street Journal 03/03/2010
New York Times 06/21/2011
Some Greeks Fear Government Is Selling Nation
New York Times 06/22/2011
Matthew Winkler Talks to George Papandreou
BusinessWeek 07/21/2011
Anger and Humiliation on Streets of Athens
Wall Street Journal 11/05/2011
The logjam between the bondholders (mostly French and German banks) and the German government- 2010-2012
07/01/2011
The roots of the Eurozone financial crisis go back to the issue of who should pay for the excess lending of French and German banks. Will it be the German taxpayer or the banks that took excessive risks? German financial experts, the German government and parliament, German public opinion, are all adamantly opposed to letting the banks off without sharing at least 50% of the costs of a bailout. A review done by the European Commission in coordination witht he IMF and the ECB, shows that from May 2010 (the date for the inception of the aid program to Greece) to September 2011, $52 billion of the $91 billion loaned to Greece went to pay bondholders for bonds that came due. The July 2011 EU agreement for Greece called for 21% of losses to be allocated to the bondholders. The German government is pushing for 50% and German parlamentary leaders in Merkel's party are balking at anything less.
Grouped Articles
Wall Street Journal 07/13/2011
New York Times 04/13/2013
Policy âTroikaâ for Europe Financial Woes at Odds
New York Times 06/07/2013
Most Greek bailout money has gone to pay off bondholders - The Washington Post
Washington Post 10/23/2011
Dexiaâs Collapse in Europe Points to Global Risks
New York Times 10/22/2011
European Officials Shaping Greek Rescue and Effort to Aid Banks
New York Times 10/22/2011
The final terms of the Greek debt swap in March 2012
06/30/2011
The final terms of the swap of new bonds with longer maturities and lower interest rates for old bonds, at a fraction of the face value (estimated at 53.5%), become clear on March 9, 2012. Greece's government writes new collective action clauses to complete the deal with private bondholders.
Grouped Articles
Greek Bonds Soar After Fitch Upgrade
Wall Street Journal 05/15/2013
Fitch Raises Greece's Credit Rating
Wall Street Journal 05/15/2013
Greece Gets Rating Recognition
Wall Street Journal 05/14/2013
Greece Bulls Charge Into Corporate Bonds
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EU Dismisses IMF's Criticism On Greek Bailout
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Greek Government Bonds Pay Off Big for Fund Managers
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Preparation for Greece's exit from the euro currency and return to the drachma- November 2011-2012
07/01/2011
Grouped Articles
‘Grexit’ Could Happen by Accident
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New York Times 07/05/2015
New York Times 07/05/2015
Wall Street Journal 11/04/2011
Plan to Leave Euro for Drachma Gains Support in Greece
New York Times 11/01/2011
Europeâs Two Years of Denials Trapped Greece
New York Times 11/05/2011
A warning light for Greece to exit the eurozone and return to the drachma to restore competitiveness and growth 2011-2012
05/26/2010
Greece needs to lower prices by 31% just to get to the level of Turkey, says the head of the Ifo research institute in Germany, Wener Sinn. Experts fear a breakdown in civil order inside Greece if deflation at this level occurs with Greece still using the euro. Hollande, the Socialist party candidate in France, also expressed similiar concerns, as reported in the New York Times, calling it a breakup in European governance that followed the breakdown in Greek governance. Sinn says the bondholders are overly exaggerating the risks of a breakup in the eurozone if Greece exits the euro.
Grouped Articles
Germany reaps rewards of entitlement cuts - The Washington Post
Washington Post 09/20/2011
New York Times 09/25/2011
New York Times 05/26/2010
New Attempt at French-German Amity Stumbles in Venice
Wall Street Journal 08/21/2013
German Election Overturns Political Order
Wall Street Journal 09/23/2013
Departing EADS Chief Urges Europe to Recommit to Industry
New York Times 04/12/2012
Charles Dallara of the Institute of International Finance's assessment of the Greece and eurozone debt restructuring of July 2011 and the Greece bailout in 2015
06/30/2011
Grouped Articles
Personalities Clashing Over How to Handle New Greek Bailout
New York Times 07/23/2015
Greek Bailout Negotiator Sees Benefits for Banks
New York Times 07/24/2011
Some Bailout Providers May One Day Need Help Too
New York Times 07/24/2011
Plan for Greece Favors Creditors
New York Times 07/25/2011
In Greek Debt Deal, Clear Benefits for the Banks
New York Times 07/25/2011
The Euro Crisis: Big Rescue, Big Doubts
BusinessWeek 07/28/2011
France's banks and losses from expansion in Greece
06/22/2011
French banks BNP Paribas, Societe Generale, Credit Agricole and other banks expanded in Greece. This is now turning out to be a burden.
Grouped Articles
Wall Street Journal 06/23/2011
Derivatives Cloud the Possible Fallout From a Greek Default
New York Times 06/22/2011
A Guide to the New Deal in Athens: How a 'Selective Default' Works
Wall Street Journal 07/22/2011
Wall Street Journal 07/22/2011
Fear, Rumors Pummel Europe Bank Shares
Wall Street Journal 08/11/2011
Bans Imposed on Some European Short Selling
Wall Street Journal 08/12/2011
Greece: EU, ECB, and EFSF negotiations for a selective default in July 2011
04/19/2010
Grouped Articles
Weber Sees Greece Needing More Aid
Wall Street Journal 04/19/2010
Greece Defaults on IMF Loan Despite New Push for Bailout Aid
Wall Street Journal 07/01/2015
Euro Zone Moves Toward Greek Deal
Wall Street Journal 07/21/2011
Europe Must Choose Currency or Financial Union
New York Times 07/21/2011
Greece Gets New Bailout as U.S. Nears Brink
Wall Street Journal 07/22/2011
A Guide to the New Deal in Athens: How a 'Selective Default' Works
Wall Street Journal 07/22/2011
Greece and the illusory nature of the troika's (ECB, IMF, EU) target for debt to GDP of 120% in 2020
06/30/2011
The artificial nature of the target especially considering all the unpredictables invoved.
Grouped Articles
A Warning Light to Alert the I.M.F.
New York Times 09/21/2011
EU Dismisses IMF's Criticism On Greek Bailout
Wall Street Journal 06/07/2013
Policy âTroikaâ for Europe Financial Woes at Odds
New York Times 06/07/2013
Past Rifts Over Greece Cloud Talks on Rescue
Wall Street Journal 10/07/2013
Personalities Clashing Over How to Handle New Greek Bailout
New York Times 07/23/2015
The Greek Debt Deal’s Missing Piece
New York Times 08/15/2015
Greece's June 2012 elections
07/01/2011
Grouped Articles
EU Dismisses IMF's Criticism On Greek Bailout
Wall Street Journal 06/07/2013
Watch Athens, Not Paris, This Weekend
Wall Street Journal 05/04/2012
Greece at new risk of being pushed off euro - The Washington Post
Washington Post 05/08/2012
With Little to Lose, Many Greeks Shrug Off Dire Warnings
New York Times 05/18/2012
Berlin Denies Suggesting Greek Membership Vote
Wall Street Journal 05/19/2012
Greece's Conservatives Gain Ground
Wall Street Journal 05/21/2012
Lawyers Buchheit and Gulati who advised Greece's government on the bond restructuring deal in March 2012
06/30/2011
Buchheit and Gulati helped Greece achieve the bondholder write-off deal through the legal mechanism of writing a collective action clause. This was possible because Greece's bonds to private investors were issued under Greek law. Collective action clauses make it possible to ensure a deal is made even if some private investors reject it. A haircut for private investors with a bond swap was designed to reduce Greece's debt to a sustainable level.
Grouped Articles
Greek Bonds Soar After Fitch Upgrade
Wall Street Journal 05/15/2013
EU Dismisses IMF's Criticism On Greek Bailout
Wall Street Journal 06/07/2013
Policy âTroikaâ for Europe Financial Woes at Odds
New York Times 06/07/2013
Greek Government Bonds Pay Off Big for Fund Managers
Wall Street Journal 10/28/2013
Wall Street Journal 03/12/2012
A Bold Proposal to Offer Greece Some Financial Relief
New York Times 07/10/2015
Why the March 2012 Greece bailout protects the EU, but is bad for Greece and for democracy
06/30/2011
Nothing to be proud of, says the Journal in its editorial on Feb. 29, 2012. For Greece the terms leave no hope for a return to growth, and that the two political parties in Greece were required to pledge their support for austerity measures against overwhelming public opposition in Athens says little for democracy. It would have been better for Greece to go into a planned default 2 years ago with steeper haircuts for European banks and reducing Greece's debt to a manageable level lower than the over 120% of GDP in 2020 of the March 2012 bailout plan, says the Journal.
Grouped Articles
EU Dismisses IMF's Criticism On Greek Bailout
Wall Street Journal 06/07/2013
Policy âTroikaâ for Europe Financial Woes at Odds
New York Times 06/07/2013
New York Times 11/03/2013
Wall Street Journal 03/12/2012
Greece’s new prime minister wants Germany to pay for Nazi war crimes - The Washington Post
Washington Post 01/26/2015
Mirage of Economic Turnaround Masked New Greek Crisis in the Making
Wall Street Journal 07/05/2015
Value of new Greece bonds in trading after the bond swap of March 2012
07/01/2011
Grouped Articles
Greek Bonds Soar After Fitch Upgrade
Wall Street Journal 05/15/2013
Fitch Raises Greece's Credit Rating
Wall Street Journal 05/15/2013
Greece Gets Rating Recognition
Wall Street Journal 05/14/2013
Greece Bulls Charge Into Corporate Bonds
Wall Street Journal 05/15/2013
Greek Government Bonds Pay Off Big for Fund Managers
Wall Street Journal 10/28/2013
Wall Street Journal 03/12/2012
The steps towards renegotiating the March 2012 bailout deal for Greece by the coalition governmment of Antonis Samaras
07/01/2011
Participation by the ECB, the IMF and the EC in negotiations with the new Greek government of Antonis Samaras to come up with a revised loan agreement for Greece. New Democracy's Samaras, the new prime minister of Greece in June 2012, has insisted that the terms should include ways in which Greece can return to growth, and the Democratic Left party, the third coalition partner, has insisted that the timetable for the deficit targets needs to be extended and the harshest austerity measures such as cutting the minimum wage be cancelled.
Grouped Articles
Frenemies: Two Greek Rivals Hold Nation's Fate in Balance
Wall Street Journal 07/26/2011
A Warning Light to Alert the I.M.F.
New York Times 09/21/2011
EU Dismisses IMF's Criticism On Greek Bailout
Wall Street Journal 06/07/2013
Policy âTroikaâ for Europe Financial Woes at Odds
New York Times 06/07/2013
New York Times 06/23/2013
Greek Draft Budget Sees Primary Surplus, Return to Growth
Wall Street Journal 10/14/2013
The IMF's March 2012 Report on Greece predicting "a disorderly exit from the euro" in the absence of further support
05/27/2010
The IMF says Greece is still "accident-prone" after the dept swap with private bondholders in March 2012. Its competitiveness problem may take a decade to resolve.
Grouped Articles
A Warning Light to Alert the I.M.F.
New York Times 09/21/2011
EU Dismisses IMF's Criticism On Greek Bailout
Wall Street Journal 06/07/2013
Policy âTroikaâ for Europe Financial Woes at Odds
New York Times 06/07/2013
Greece Can Learn IMF Austerity from Turkey
BusinessWeek 05/27/2010
Past Rifts Over Greece Cloud Talks on Rescue
Wall Street Journal 10/07/2013
Watch Athens, Not Paris, This Weekend
Wall Street Journal 05/04/2012
The European Union agreement for the eurozone debt crisis in Greece and other countries in July 2011
06/30/2011
The first really workable agreement was finally reached in Brussels after a year of sharp differences between the ECB, EU leaders, Greece government and opposition parties, and leaders of France, Germany and other EU countries. Fears of contagion for Italy and Spain and a sense of the dangers to the EU and the Euro currency itself led to the agreement, with the EU governments coming up with the financial support which will be channelled through the European Financial Stability Facility. The debt ceiling crisis in the U.S. may have added to the urgency to reduce nervousness in the markets about a breakdown in EU governance along with that in the U.S.
Grouped Articles
Wall Street Journal 07/13/2011
Europe Must Choose Currency or Financial Union
New York Times 07/21/2011
Greece Gets New Bailout as U.S. Nears Brink
Wall Street Journal 07/22/2011
A Guide to the New Deal in Athens: How a 'Selective Default' Works
Wall Street Journal 07/22/2011
Wall Street Journal 07/22/2011
Euro Zone's Imperfect Path to Union
Wall Street Journal 07/22/2011
Contagion from the banking crisis in Greece
06/15/2011
Grouped Articles
Greek Contagion Spreading Fast
Wall Street Journal 06/15/2011
Greek banks: Dance of the dead
Economist 09/03/2011
Ratings Firms Misread Signs of Greek Woes
New York Times 11/29/2011
As Bank Withdrawals Surge, Athens Relies More on ECB
Wall Street Journal 05/16/2012
Move Buys Time for Greece, But Growing Debt Looms
Wall Street Journal 07/01/2011
The June 2011 European Union plan for Greece faces strong criticism for being unworkable
07/01/2011
This plans doubles the interest rate for Greece debt owed to French and German banks under a French banking proposal. Sharp spending cuts and tax increases face opposition inside Greece and their negative impact on economic growth may leave Greece with a much larger debt to GDP ratio in 2011 than in 2010.
Linked Articles
Greece and the euro: The abuses of austerity
Economist 07/02/2011
Move Buys Time for Greece, But Growing Debt Looms
Wall Street Journal 07/01/2011
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