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The Sickness Beneath the Slump - Economic View
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Shiller says the underlying problems in the economy such as the sociological factors that led to overoptimism about real estate prices and the dot com stocks play out over many years. They are lost in the headlines about the Fed or some short term developments that get cited along with the bad economic news about unemployment. Yet these underlying factors such as the bubble phenomena in housing are what makes these problems so intractable. The bubble in home prices caused a 131 percent rise in home prices in the period 1997-2005, 85% in inflation adjusted terms, according to the Case-Shiller National Home Price Index. The long term expectations of price increases well into the indefinite future lag the price decreases as the bubble bursts, even as the expectations decrease. For 2012 the Case-Shiller survey shows expectations are for a 1% increase in prices. With the increase in the personal savings rate from about 1% in 2005 to about 5% today, Shiller says consumer spending will not support a strong recovery.
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According to Karl Case its basically flat in 2010 and quite fragile, with a lot of inventory out there. By 2012 the situation had not changed much, except for Washington D.C. with growth in employment, and a small spurt in 2011 in Phoenix from out of state and Canadian buyers. Prices in Las Vegas and other cities continued to decline and there were fears of more homes being released by banks from foreclosed properties in judicial states such as Florida.
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Linked Articles
The Sickness Beneath the Slump - Economic View
New York Times 06/11/2011
Wall Street Journal 06/07/2011
Fitting a long term trend line to the Case-Shiller Index Peter Schiff says the index should be at 126. It was 159 in Oct 2010.
12/30/2010
Linked Articles
The Sickness Beneath the Slump - Economic View
New York Times 06/11/2011
Home Prices Are Still Too High
Wall Street Journal 12/30/2010
Continued weakness in housing in the U.S. in 2011
05/31/2011
Linked Articles
The Sickness Beneath the Slump - Economic View
New York Times 06/11/2011
Housing Prices, Still Falling, May Be Nearing Bottom
New York Times 05/31/2011
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