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Number of the Week: Did U.S. Actually Shed 195,000 Jobs in July?
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Izzo looks at the diverging picture presented by two Labor Department surveys of unemployment in the U.S. for July 2012- an increase of 163,000 jobs or 195,000 fewer people working. One, the Household Survey is based on survey of individual households counts people and the other the Establishment Survey based on a survey of employers counts jobs. If one person holds two jobs he would be counted twice in the Establishment Survey and once in the Household Survey. If a person is a unincorporated self employed person, a family employee who isn't paid, a farm worker who is employed but not paid he is counted in the Household Survey, but left out in the Establishment Survey. The Labor Department prepares a third measure of the number of people working by adjusting for multple jobholders and for workers not counted in the survey of businesses. By this third measure the U.S. economy added 108,000 jobs in July, which is far less than the 163,000 jobs shown added in the Establishment Survey. Because of the increase in parttime work it is likely that more people are doing multiple jobs which may explain some of this difference. Another reason could be the severe drought in the U.S. that may be reducing the opportunities for work for freelance construction maintenance and day laborers because of restrictions on water use. This shows that it takes several months of data to get some sense of where unemployment is headed, adjusting the numbers for unusual events or weather, and looking behind the numbers to the sectors generating jobs. In the first quarter of 2012 more jobs were generated in the U.S. because of a mild winter, followed by fewer jobs in the second quarter, which required looking at the two quarters together to get a better picture. Adjusting for the long term unemployed who have quit looking is also necessary to get a correct reading of U.S. unemployment levels.
The complex picture presented by the surveys of the Bureau of Labor Statistics on unemployment and making sense of what they mean
01/07/2012
The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics has two surveys the payroll survey of 400,000 establishements is the emplyer survey and gives the number of jobs added in nonfarm payrolls. The other survey is the Household survey which is based on 600,000 households and gives the unemployment rate. The number of jobs added in the employer survey of payrolls is revised sometimes by hundreds of thousands. The unemployment rate is based on the number of people looking for jobs. If people are discouraged and stop looking the unemployment rate may look better, and conversely if people feel encouraged and start looking the rate can be worse. The unemployment rate can also look better even when jobs are coming in at less than the 125,000 jobs a month that account for population growth to keep the unemployment rate stable.
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The situation confronting the baby boom generation as it retires in the U.S. The stock market boom-bust cycles of 2000-2002 and 2006-2008 have hurt the 401(K) retirement accounts of most Americans. High unemployment and the housing crisis with many home owners under water has only worsened the situation. The difficult situation for seniors earning little interest on their savings. The problem of outliving ones savings for seniors with their money invested in bonds in a low interest rate environment. The median savings of Americans of close to $10,000 with only 10% of Americans having saved about $1 million by age 65. Longevity today means Americans are likely to live to age 85.
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Why high unemployment and the high percentage of the long term unemployed is determining U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate policy in 2012-2014
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With 40% of the unemployed in the U.S. shown as long term unemployed, mismatch in skills and other structural problems with unemployment, the U.S. Federal Reserve policies of Fed chairman Bernanke are geared to addressing this problem.
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Number of the Week: Did U.S. Actually Shed 195,000 Jobs in July?
Wall Street Journal 08/04/2012
The Noise on Jobs Keeps Fed Guessing
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Hiring Picks Up in July, but Data Gives No Clear Signal
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Looking behind the unemployment numbers to better guage unemployment levels in the U.S. in 2011-2013
12/12/2011
Including the long term unemployed who quit working after months of furitless searching gives a better sense of the real level of unemployment in the U.S. Reconciling the Establishment Survey with the Household Survey using the third measure developed by the Labor Department which adjusts for multiple jobs held by one person and self employed farm workers, and adjusting for weather conditions, also helps give a better picture.
Linked Articles
Number of the Week: Did U.S. Actually Shed 195,000 Jobs in July?
Wall Street Journal 08/04/2012
Wonkbook: The real unemployment rate is 11 percent - The Washington Post
Washington Post 12/12/2011
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