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Portugal to Seek New Bailout Terms
Keywords:
The stark divergence between 2011 and 2013 forecasts for Portugal's economy show the need for better terms on Portugal's EU loans. The 2011 forecasts of EU lenders estimated a much lower level of contraction in the economy and unemployment. In 2011 the lenders estimate was for a economic contraction of a combined 4% in 2011 and 2012 and returning to growth in 2013, with unemployment peaking at 13%. The forecasts in 2013 estimate the economic contraction at 7% for 2011-2013, with unemployment reaching 17.3%. Portuguese government officials say they overestimated tax revenues and underestimated the payouts for social benefits to the unemployed. Prime minister Coelho is criticized for increasing taxes and making spending cuts blindly. He faces angry protestors singing the anthem of Portugal's revolution against the dictatorship in 1974- "Grandola, Vila Morena."
Why Portugal is different from Greece in 2012-2013, and yet may find its debt unsustainable as the economy shrinks- the situation in 2012-2013
04/30/2010
Portugal is taking vigorous steps without social unrest, including spending cuts that will stabilize the deficit, labor reform, and increasing exports through trading links to Africa and Latin America. Portugal needs to borrow about 10 billion euros in 2012 and the ratings downgrade has hurt Portugal by raising rates on new borrowing to about 20%. The economy is expected to shrink by 3% in 2012.
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The twin problems of lack of growth and overvalued currencies under the solutions of austerity plans without debt reduction and a single euro currency create impossible odds for a resolution of the eurozone financial crisis. Germany's insistence on tough austerity measures, European banks delaying restructuring of bad loans similar to the U.S. Brady plan, failure of politicians in Italy and Greece to take early action, and small steps by policymakers, are compounding the effects of the eurozone crisis.
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Portugal's austerity measures and economic contraction in 2011-2013- the economic management of the Coelho government
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Linked Articles
Portugal to Seek New Bailout Terms
Wall Street Journal 03/04/2013
Pension Uproar Sours Portugal's Recovery
Wall Street Journal 09/23/2012
Austerity measures and economic contraction in Portugal 2010-2013- the terms of the 2011 EU-IMF loan agreement with Portugal
05/05/2011
The forecasts of higher unemployment reaching 17% and economic contraction of 7% for 2011-2013 are widely diverging from the original estimates in 2011 by EU and IMF officials. This increases the urgency for reappraisal of the terms of the original agreement including borrowing rates, giving more time to achieve deficit targets, and other action to put Portugal back on the road to growth in 2014.
Linked Articles
Portugal to Seek New Bailout Terms
Wall Street Journal 03/04/2013
Government Sees Deep Recession Ahead for Portugal
New York Times 05/05/2011
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