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Hillary Needs More Than the Obama Coalition
Keywords:
Tags: Current Focus, United States,
Galston says the Hillary Clinton campaign strategy may be flawed. Following a president from the same party who has served two terms is difficult for a presidential candidate because of an anti-incumbency mood that sets in after 8 years. Galston cites an expert from Emory University about this costing the incumbent party about 4 percentage points in votes. This would eliminate President Obama's 3.9 percentage point win in 2012, says Galston. Hillary Clinton's cautious campaign sticking to the themes set by the Obama campaign and appealing to the core base of young people, women, minorities, and upscale professionals, runs the risk of not appealing to other voters needed such as the working class white voters. Stanley Greenberg, a pollster with much experience is cited by Galston as showing that the women's vote also is not the same for Democrats. Among unmarried white women for instance it has dropped from a 20 point margin in 2008 for Mr. Obama to a 4 point margin in 2012. By 2014 this was down to 2 points, and in 2015 this is now down to zero margin, with both Republicans and Democrats even among unmarried white women. Unmarried and working class white women are described by Greenberg as looking for a candidate who can help the middle class, with Democrats perceived as the party of government and special interests, making the 2016 election different from the ones before it.
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The strategy means focussing on parts of the midwest such as Ohio and Wisconsin, the East and the West. It means ignoring deep red Republican states such as Kentucky, Tennessee, Louisiana, West Virginia. This suggests less attention would be paid to the independent voter on the basis of the increased polarization in the country, and risking everything on winning with women, Hispanic and younger voters, leaving vast parts of the white working class aside. This is unlike Hillary Clinton's campaign in 2008, and Bill Clinton's two winning presidential campaigns which appealed to centrist voters. This may also be because Hillary Clinton in 2015 is perceived as a polarizing candidate for right of centre voters, compared to Bill Clinton, and the failure of Republicans to change perceptions on issues such as immigration, on women's issues, and wages, keeping the core Democratic constituency together. This could change if a Republican candidate is able to appeal to voters on the left by staking out positions on immigration, wages and womens issues that are different from the Republican party's right wing, as shown by Jeb Bush of Florida.
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Hillary Clinton's campaign themes for the 2016 U.S. presidential election
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Increasing inequality, stagnant wages and the economy, are key themes for Hillary Clinton as she begins her campaign in Iowa in April 2015.
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The women's vote in 2016 U.S. presidential election and the antiincumbency mood of 2016- risks for Clinton running a cautious campaign and big risks for Trump
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Hillary Clinton needs a vigorous campaign away from the cautious instincts of the early days of her campaign, as Trump seeks to deflect criticism by attacking Hillary Clinton, say experts. The risks are high for Trump if the effort backfires alienating the vast majority of women, including Sanders supporters, independents and traditional Republican moderates. This is one of the wild twists of the campoaign of 2016- a candidate apparently making sexist comments to attract the support of white women voter- and men.
Linked Articles
Hillary Needs More Than the Obama Coalition
Wall Street Journal 06/11/2015
Donald Trump’s Gender-Based Attacks on Hillary Clinton Have Calculated Risk
New York Times 04/28/2016
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