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Red Alert on Russia Is Premature
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Factors making Russia different from other emerging markets are the foreign exchange reserves of $497 billion. From mid 2009 to the end of 2012 portfolio inflows were only 1% of GDP, according to Morgan Stanley. Problems in Russia include growth slowing to 1.5% and higher inflation with reliance on oil revenues. Russia is still dependent on oil and gas revenues and has not diversified the economy. Foreign investment is limited.
Alexei Kudrin and other experts see the potential for a deep political and economic crisis in Russia 2011-2015
01/25/2008
Fears expressed by Kudrin and other experts at a Moscow conference about the impact of a recession in the eurozone and Greece's exit from the euro. Kudrin was a key figure in Russia anticipating and setting aside reserves in the sovereign fund to meet the adverse effects of the 2008 global financial crisis. The views expressed were that Russia's economy is shaky and could be seriously affected if European banks reduce their loans. Earlier he strongly opposed increases in military spending in a disagreement with prime minister Medvedev because of concerns about financial stability.
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Emerging Markets Financial Crisis in 2014 and 1997- the difference in 2014 is less contagion as investors look at individual countries
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The current account deficits are high in Thailand and Turkey, and this is coupled wth political uncertainty. Argentina faces high inflation at over 20%. Investors have focussed on Argentina and Turkey. Countries that failed to learn from the 1997 crisis such as Argentina, Turkey and Thailand, are seen in a different light from Mexico and Poland. India faces inflation of about 10%. Other countries affected are Russia, Brazil and South Africa. Most of the countries have flexible exchange rates in 2014 compared to fixed exchange rates in 1997, and higher dollar reserves in 2014 which helps cushion the effects of overseas borrowing. The effects on Europe and the U.S. in 2014 are seen as limited to how this affects the global economy.
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The Russian ruble in 2010-2014
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Russian Ruble Slips to 7-Month Low as Investors Grow Cold
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Red Alert on Russia Is Premature
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Raising Stakes on Russia, U.S. Adds Sanctions
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Russian Ruble Hits Fresh Record Low Against Dollar
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Russian Companies Clamor for Dollars to Repay Debt
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Russia's finance minister, Alexei Kudrin, and Russia's finances
01/25/2008
Kudrin on higher military spending of 3% of Russia's GDP, exceeding the amount spent on education. He sees this as endangering Russia's finances. Kudrin's focus on building the Russian Stabilization Fund helped Russia weather the 2008 global financial crisis. He is one of the St Petersburg officials who helped bring Putin to the Presidency. A slowing economy and a decline in oil prices would have an impact on the Russian economy. Analysts say Russia needs an oil price of $120 to support the current level of spending.
Grouped Articles
Putin Pledges Stimulus for Russian Economy
Wall Street Journal 06/21/2013
Russia Looks to Borrow to Plug Funding Gap
Wall Street Journal 09/19/2013
Russia Prepared to Let Ruble Slide
Wall Street Journal 01/30/2014
Red Alert on Russia Is Premature
Wall Street Journal 02/03/2014
Russia's Power Play Hits Economic Weak Spot
Wall Street Journal 03/04/2014
Russia Economy Worsens Even Before Sanctions Hit
New York Times 04/16/2014
Russia's economy- 2010-2014
09/10/2011
Grouped Articles
Putin Pledges Stimulus for Russian Economy
Wall Street Journal 06/21/2013
Russia's Growth Pace Continues to Weaken
Wall Street Journal 08/11/2013
Russia Looks to Borrow to Plug Funding Gap
Wall Street Journal 09/19/2013
Russia Prepared to Let Ruble Slide
Wall Street Journal 01/30/2014
Red Alert on Russia Is Premature
Wall Street Journal 02/03/2014
Russia's Power Play Hits Economic Weak Spot
Wall Street Journal 03/04/2014
Russia as emerging market (1) - declining currency and stagflation
01/17/2014
Declining growth characterizes all emerging markets. High reserves in Russia and Brazil separate the two countries from Argentina and Turkey where foreign exchange reserves are insufficient to prevent sharp declines in the currrency. Russia also has a low budget deficit. The foreign investment climate in Russia and India has deteriorated reducing capital inflows for modernizing the economy in India and diversifying the economy in Russia.
Linked Articles
Red Alert on Russia Is Premature
Wall Street Journal 02/03/2014
Russia Is Facing Stagflation, Central Banker Says
Wall Street Journal 01/17/2014
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