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Why Saudis Decided Not to Prop Up Oil
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Solomon and Said give a detailed account of the events leading to the steep decline in oil prices to $61 a barrel by December 2014. The steep declines have caused a shock for OPEC and non-OPEC producers. A price decline of this magnitude may not have been anticipated by the Saudis, and there are divisions among Saudi officials and in the royal family about whether such steep cuts are best for Saudi Arabia. The price per barrel of oil for each OPEC country to balance its budget varies widely, according to IMF and IEA, WSJ, sources. For Saudi Arabia this estimate is $106, Iraq 101, for Russia $98. The Saudis have $750 billion in foreign currency reserves. At the high end are Libya at $184, Iran at $131, Algeria $131, Nigeria $122, Venezuela $117. The UAE is at $77, Qatar $60. Norway is at the low end at $40. On Dec. 19, 2014 the price of Brent crude, ICE for Jan. delivery was $61.38.
How the decision to not cut OPEC oil production was reached at the November 2014 Vienna meeting
12/04/2014
The decision leads to a drop in oil prices below $70 for Brent crude by Dec. 2014. A decision by Russia and Rosneft not to cut production, along with cuts by Mexico and the OPEC countries including Venezuela, leads to dropping of a Venezuelan proposal for oil production cuts. This turns out to have been a strategic mistake for Russia as the oil price drops accelerated a decline in the value of the ruble, aggravating a situation made difficult by western sanctions limiting capital access on global capital markets, capital flight, and higher inflation. The decision was presented as a Saudi effort to gain market share in the U.S. which had fallen sharply with increased shale oil production. By taking the Venezuelan proposal into consideration the Saudis maintained OPEC unity, while leaving open the possibility of reevaluating the decision in 2015 after observing the movement in oil price and supplies. The move hurts Iran, Russia and Venezuela which face severe economic constraints. It benefits India which faced severe energy import difficulties.
Grouped Articles
Saudi Arabia Sees Oil Prices Stabilizing Around $60 a Barrel
Wall Street Journal 12/04/2014
Oil Prices Plunge With Brent Crude Below $60
Wall Street Journal 12/16/2014
Why Saudis Decided Not to Prop Up Oil
Wall Street Journal 12/22/2014
Saudi Arabia Vows to Ride Out Oil Price Slump
New York Times 12/21/2014
Oil’s Swift Fall Raises Fortunes of U.S. Abroad
New York Times 12/24/2014
New King in Saudi Arabia Unlikely to Alter Oil Policy
New York Times 01/23/2015
Saudi oil price cuts in November 2014 to increase U.S. market share- with market share decline to 4.6% in August 2014 from 7% in August 2013
11/04/2014
U.S. imports of Saudi oil declined to 894,000 barrels a day from a high of 1.6 million a few months earlier. Saudi price cuts in November 2014 in the U.S. market, while decreasing prices in tight Asian markets, was designed to reverse the drop in market share. NYMEX price of oil dropped below $80 by early Nov. 2014.
Grouped Articles
Saudi Price Cut Upends Oil Market
Wall Street Journal 11/04/2014
Energy Quakes as OPEC Stands Pat
Wall Street Journal 11/28/2014
OPEC’s Weapon of Mass Inaction
Wall Street Journal 11/28/2014
Free Fall in Oil Price Underscores Shift Away From OPEC
New York Times 11/28/2014
Oil Slide Deepens, Ruble Crumbles
Wall Street Journal 12/01/2014
Oil Prices Slip Further After IEA Report
Wall Street Journal 12/12/2014
The calculations of the Saudis, Russia, Iran and Iraq, Venezuela, and other OPEC members as oil prices decline in Oct.-Dec. 2014
10/15/2014
Each side the Saudis, the Russia, and Iran is looking at the drop in oil prices and how much it can absorb using sovereign reserves as lower prices leads to budget deficits in 2015-2016. Russia and Iran face greater problems with western sanctions, and falling currency values exacerbating rising inflation. Other OPEC countries such as Venezuela and Nigeria face a crisis from falling revenues. In the U.S. this will affect shale oil production as less efficient producers shut down plants, with the overall outlook of lower oil prices being positive.
Grouped Articles
Fall in Oil Prices Poses a Problem for Russia, Iraq and Others
New York Times 10/15/2014
The Oil Price Swoon Won’t Stop the Shale Boom
Wall Street Journal 10/23/2014
As Oil Prices Plummet, Saudi Arabia Faces a Test of Strategy
New York Times 10/15/2014
Refining Saudi Arabia’s Oil Strategy
Wall Street Journal 11/03/2014
Saudi Price Cut Upends Oil Market
Wall Street Journal 11/04/2014
OPEC Members Nearing Compromise on Supply Cuts
Wall Street Journal 11/26/2014
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