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Seeing Cost of Saber Rattling in Ukraine, Putin Alters Course
Keywords:
Did Putin overreact as he did in Georgia. On the issue of Russian speaking people in neighboring eastern European countries Putin has strong emotional reaction, as evident in the 2008 Georgian conflict. In Ukraine the issue assumes significance because of the effect of western sanctions, adverse foreign investor sentiment and the tendency of rich Russians, similiar to Argentines, to shift assets abroad. Capital flight was $75 billion in the first 6 months of 2014. Add to this adverse effect on foreign investor sentiment on an already slowing Russian economy, and growth will be seriously affected. Car sales are expected to decline by 12% in 2014, according to a trade group. The rhetoric has been toned down on Russian television. And Russian analysts now say relations with the West must be maintained. Polls by state run polling company WCIOM show 66% of the Russian public oppose Russian forces entering Ukrainian territory.
Putin and Russia's shift in Ukraine policy with the impact of capital flight, western sanctions and a sharp slowdown in the economy by July 2014
07/11/2014
Polls show 66% of the Russian public opposes Russian forces going into Ukrainian territory. The rhetoric on Russian television has been toned down and Russian analysts say intervention in Ukraine would have dangerous consequences for Russia, that Russia needs to maintain its relations with the West. At the same time Putin will attend a summit of BRIC's leaders in Fortaleza, Brazil, with plans to set up a development bank, as the focus shifts back to the economy. Russia is expected to feel the impact of $75 billion in capital flight in the first half of 2014.
Grouped Articles
Seeing Cost of Saber Rattling in Ukraine, Putin Alters Course
New York Times 07/11/2014
U.S. Escalates Sanctions Against Russia Over Ukraine Crisis
Wall Street Journal 07/17/2014
Raising Stakes on Russia, U.S. Adds Sanctions
New York Times 07/16/2014
Putinism Thrives on Dirty Money
Wall Street Journal 07/22/2014
Wall Street Journal 07/22/2014
Coordinated Sanctions Aim at Russia’s Ability to Tap Its Oil Reserves
New York Times 07/29/2014
Former German chancellor Gerhard Schroeder and Germany's response to the Ukraine crisis
05/12/2014
As chairman of the Nordstream Pipeline company, Schroeder, is in favor of good German relations with Russia and Putin. Here he responds to criticism of his relations with Russian president Putin. Schroeder cites the horrible situation of World War II and suffering inflicted on Russians. Schroeder lost his father in the war. Putin is the only surviving child of a mother who barely survived the German siege of Leningrad in 1941-1944, when 641,000 Russians died of starvation in the city.
Grouped Articles
Former German Chancellor Schröder Defends Birthday Bash With Putin
Wall Street Journal 05/12/2014
Germany's Wolfgang Schäuble: Prepared to Raise Pressure on Russia
Wall Street Journal 05/24/2014
Ukraine’s Next President Vows to Restore Order and Mend Russia Ties
New York Times 05/26/2014
Seeing Cost of Saber Rattling in Ukraine, Putin Alters Course
New York Times 07/11/2014
Wall Street Journal 09/03/2014
Putin Tells European Official That He Could ‘Take Kiev in Two Weeks’
New York Times 09/02/2014
Friedman on why Putin blinked when he realized the costs of impulsive emotional policy making for Russia's economy and his legacy of economic progress
05/27/2014
Putin's early reactions to Yakunovych, corruption and poor leadership in Ukraine, and anti-Russian feeling in western Ukraine, were emotional and impulsive. The Crimean takeover was perceived very differently and gained Putin poor media coverage in Germany after decades of effort in building German-Russian relations, surely not worth what was gained in Crimea. The capital outflows estimated to reach $160 billion at one point and the damage to foreign investment sentiment at a time of sharp economic slowdown must rate as one of the poorest displays of policy making, when Russian speaking Ukrainians could be protected without damaging Russia's image and relations with western partners. Relationships needed for modernization of what is still an emerging market in a global economy. Even in a multipolar economic world with China, Russia playing a bigger role, other competing players Japan and India, would dilute any influence gained by China, and by Russia, and no change in the global economy. A more serious effort would be for Putin to have pushed to give Russia a more effective economic role by diversifying to a tech based economy, away from oil, something that still awaits Russia under some future leadership and party.
Grouped Articles
New York Times 05/27/2014
This Is Just a Date, Not a Marriage
Wall Street Journal 06/03/2014
Tensions Are Writ Large Before Ukraine Showdown
Wall Street Journal 07/07/2014
Seeing Cost of Saber Rattling in Ukraine, Putin Alters Course
New York Times 07/11/2014
Raising Stakes on Russia, U.S. Adds Sanctions
New York Times 07/16/2014
Wall Street Journal 07/22/2014
Did Putin overreact in Georgia 2008 and Ukraine 2014? Russia and the dangers to the Russian economy of not maintaining good relations with the West
08/13/2008
Russia tones down its overreaction as 66% of Russians polled in June say Russian forces should not enter Ukrainian terrritory. Putin and Russians in the administration policy making may have underestimated the reaction in the U.S. as reflected in this WSH editorial saying Americans should remember the words of Gen. Lucius Clay during the Berlin Blockade and the subsequent airlift. This could be why analysts in Russia now maintain that good relations with the West must be maintained, and entry of Russian forces into Ukraine would have disastrous consequences for Russia in terms of western sentiment and foreign investor sentiment. In such a situation Germany would be likely to support the stronger U.S. position seeing this in terms of the language used in theBerlin Airlift of 1948. For Germany and Russia this would be reversing the hard won gains of building relations from the time of Brandtand Kohl till today, fifty years of effort to build better relations and economic relationships- just too much for sober heads in Moscow Paris, and Berlin to accept, and closing another chapter in Russia's interactions with the West.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 08/13/2008
Seeing Cost of Saber Rattling in Ukraine, Putin Alters Course
New York Times 07/11/2014
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