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Beware Strait Talking on Oil

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Denning says that because of the enormous repercusions on Iran's economy of a war in the Persian Gulf, a more likely scenario is not the cutoff of supplies of Iranian oil altogether but a smaller list of buyers for Iranian oil, making Iran sell the oil at a discount. Saudi Arabia's and Libya's added production would bring more oil to the market. The impact will be larger on Europe because of the decline in the value of the euro, with Brent crude on a 12 month average basis costing 14% more now than in the peak price in 2008. By comparison in dollar terms the comparable figure is 4% higher for the U.S. At a price of Brent crude of $120 in 2012, according to Citigroup, energy costs would take up 9% of world GDP, putting pressure on a economic recovery in Europe and the U.S.

2011-2012 oil price increases and production increases by the Saudis, Iraq and Libya to increase the effectiveness of sanctions on Iranian oil

04/26/2006

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High oil prices in 2008 and again in 2011. The danger this poses for the Detroit automakers as they continue to depend on SUV's and larger vehicles for revenues and profits. Even with the big strides in making small cars, a Chevy Cruze or a Ford Fiesta is still not as popular as a Honda Civic or a Toyota Prius, says one analyst.

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Oil prices in 2012 expected to be above $100 with higher social spending by Arab countries and threats by Iran

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Forecasts in Dec. 2011 show oil prices remaining above $100 a barrel in 2012. The threat of Iranian retaliation for increased sanctions in the Straits of Hormuz have embedded a $10-$20 premium in oil prices say some experts. Saudia Arabia and other oil states have increased social spending after the democracy protests in the Arab world, and would like to see higher prices to support this spending.

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The fall of the Gaddafi regime in Libya in August 2011 and restoration of democratic government will lead to a renewal of oil exports. Libya exported 1.5- 1.8 million barrels a day before the war against Gaddafi. The restoration of full production depends on the rebuilding of damaged refineries. This could take upto three years say experts. A psychological boost is not the same as the physical aspect of oil supplies on the ground says one analyst.

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The U.S.'s strategic petroleum reserve and oil prices

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Best Barometer for Further Oil Release? Brent Futures

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The dollar and oil prices.

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For Oil's Future, Look Backwards

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