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The Emerging Threat to Oil Prices
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A recent Deutsche Bank study points to the pro-cyclical nature of oil prices in this decade where oil price increases do not lead to decreased worldwide consumption. The IEA forecast is for 1.64 million barrels of oil a day in increased coonsumption in 2013 compared to 2011, which hides a drop in consumption of 640,000 barrels a day in OECD countries. That is offset by higher demand in China, the Middle East and Russia. Middle East consumption is about 80% of consumption in China, and oil price increases lead to higher growth in these countries and Russia leading to increased oil consumption reinforcing a pro-cyclical cycle. What is not clearly understood is how this changes with weaker economic growth. Additional factor to consider is future increasing growth of oil consumption in India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Vietnam and other developing countries that offset reductions in Chinese consumption as China's growth rate slows.
The procyclical nature of oil demand based on growth in China, India, the Middle East and Russia
04/11/2012
Higher growth leads to higher demand and higher prices in a pro-cyclical mode. In this pro-cyclical higher prices do not lead to decreased consumption as happened in the 1980's with oil demand coming principally from developed countries in Europe and N. America.
Grouped Articles
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India Grapples With Soaring Energy Costs
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China Seen Bolstering Oil Reserves
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price incerases in gasoline in China to conserve oil
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China Seen Bolstering Oil Reserves
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Oil Prices Slip Further After IEA Report
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China Has Big Eyes, Little Stomach for Oil
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China Raises Fuel Prices Again But Remains Below World Levels
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As Oil Price Sets New High, Stress Hits Developing Nations
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Citing Oil Prices, Asia Starts Reducing Fuel Subsidies
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Grouped Articles
Oil Glut Ignites Gasoline Price Swoon
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Falling Oil Prices Spur New Bets on Global Economic Growth
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Hedge funds and other investors and oil prices in 2006
04/29/2006
About 20% of the price increases are attributed to these investors in commodities trading. Goldman's own index channels $55 billion of these investments. About $85 billion put up by investors in oil commodities trading.
Grouped Articles
Hedge Funders Are All a Little Nuts
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Trading Frenzy Adding to Rise in Price of Oil
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Fears of a 2008 Repeat for Oil
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Hot Commodity: Research on Prices
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Commodity prices drop on economic woes in Europe, China, U.S. - The Washington Post
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Social unrest in the Middle East and the price of oil
02/28/2006
The impact of larger social spending in Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries on the price of oil.
Grouped Articles
Fall in Oil Prices Poses a Problem for Russia, Iraq and Others
New York Times 10/15/2014
Saudi Arabia’s Succession Line Is Set, but the Nation’s Path Remains Uncertain
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New King in Saudi Arabia Unlikely to Alter Oil Policy
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From Venezuela to Iraq to Russia, Oil Price Drops Raise Fears of Unrest
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Americans Are Cautiously Open to Gas Tax Rise, Poll Shows
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Oil prices in 2012 expected to be above $100 with higher social spending by Arab countries and threats by Iran
04/19/2011
Forecasts in Dec. 2011 show oil prices remaining above $100 a barrel in 2012. The threat of Iranian retaliation for increased sanctions in the Straits of Hormuz have embedded a $10-$20 premium in oil prices say some experts. Saudia Arabia and other oil states have increased social spending after the democracy protests in the Arab world, and would like to see higher prices to support this spending.
Grouped Articles
Fall in Oil Prices Poses a Problem for Russia, Iraq and Others
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Saudi Price Cut Upends Oil Market
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Saudis Moving to Reduce Dependence on Oil Money
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Wall Street Journal 12/05/2011
Oil Prices Predicted to Remain Above $100 a Barrel Next Year
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Iran's Economy Can Take the Pressure-;for Now
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Grouped Articles
OPEC Rift Emerging Over Iraq Output, Possible Return of Iran
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OPEC Keeps Lid on Oil Production Targets
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OPECâs Power Over Oil Prices Has Its Limits
New York Times 06/06/2011
Oil Minister Asserts Iran Won't Cut Exports Despite Nuclear Standoff
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Wall Street Journal 06/09/2011
Political Tensions in the Middle East Appear to Undercut Saudis' Role
Wall Street Journal 06/09/2011
2011-2012 oil price increases and production increases by the Saudis, Iraq and Libya to increase the effectiveness of sanctions on Iranian oil
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Grouped Articles
Saudi, U.S., Iraq Step in to Plug Libya Oil Gap
Wall Street Journal 09/11/2013
In Libya, Unrest Brings Oil Industry to Standstill
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Exxon Mobil Signs Iraq Deal With PetroChina, Pertamina
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Host of Conflicting Forces Has Saudis on a Tightrope
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Fall in Oil Prices Poses a Problem for Russia, Iraq and Others
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As Oil Prices Plummet, Saudi Arabia Faces a Test of Strategy
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Impact on oil demand and prices of the new U.S. fuel efficiency standards.
05/13/2011
Oil demand could drop by as much as 2.6 million barrels a day by 2025, as a result of the new U.S. fuel efficiency standards for 49 mpg by 2025. Fuel efficiency gains in China, India and other emerging market countries and increasing stability in the middle east, and the technological advances for low environmental impact shale oil could change the entire dynamic of world oil demand and prices. This happened in an earlier period of fuel efficency gains in the 1980's resulting in low crude oil prices.
Grouped Articles
Global Oil Glut Sends Prices Plunging
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IEA Cuts Outlook for Oil-Demand Growth by 22%
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Fueling a Sneak Attack on Crude-Oil Prices
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Oil Prices Predicted to Remain Above $100 a Barrel Next Year
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Could Shale Gas Reignite the U.S. Economy?
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Wall Street Journal 01/06/2012
GM. Ford, Chrysler and oil price increases in 2007-2008 and 2011-2012
06/02/2006
High oil prices in 2008 and again in 2011. The danger this poses for the Detroit automakers as they continue to depend on SUV's and larger vehicles for revenues and profits. Even with the big strides in making small cars, a Chevy Cruze or a Ford Fiesta is still not as popular as a Honda Civic or a Toyota Prius, says one analyst.
Grouped Articles
Chrysler’s Fall May Help Administration Reshape G.M.
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Measuring Car Sales by the Gallon
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Why Gas Feels Cheap—and Why It’s Not, Historically Speaking
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GM Chief: Industry Ill-Placed for Oil Shock
Wall Street Journal 03/01/2011
Car Sales Jumped in February, but Here Come Those Gas Prices Again
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Stepping on the Gas Needn't Crash Detroit
Wall Street Journal 03/23/2011
The impact of sanctions and the conflict with Iran on oil prices- 2012-2014
03/20/2012
Grouped Articles
OPEC, Foreseeing No Glut, Keeps Oil Production Level Steady
New York Times 12/04/2013
Sanctions Eased, Iran Gets Feelers From Old Trading Partners
New York Times 01/17/2014
Fall in Oil Prices Poses a Problem for Russia, Iraq and Others
New York Times 10/15/2014
U.S. Exempts Japan and 10 Others From Iran Oil Sanctions
New York Times 03/20/2012
Obama Clears Way for Measures Against Iran
New York Times 03/30/2012
Assessing Iran, but Thinking About Iraq
New York Times 03/31/2012
Oil price increases in 2011-2012 and economic growth in the U.S. and Europe
03/01/2011
The impact of increases in oil prices on economic growth following the democracy protests in the Middle East.
Grouped Articles
Oil's Rise Threatens Economic Growth
Wall Street Journal 03/01/2011
U.S. Better Prepared for Surging Gas Prices
New York Times 03/08/2011
Oil and the economy: The 2011 oil shock
Economist 03/05/2011
Oil markets and Arab unrest: The price of fear
Economist 03/05/2011
Oil Traders See Lasting Mideast Instability
BusinessWeek 04/07/2011
OPEC Nations Face a Balancing Act
Wall Street Journal 04/19/2011
OPEC social spending and oil price- 2011-2012
02/04/2006
Grouped Articles
OPEC Chief Shrugs Off Oil Politics
New York Times 02/04/2006
Oil Minister Asserts Iran Won't Cut Exports Despite Nuclear Standoff
Wall Street Journal 04/26/2006
Wall Street Journal 06/09/2011
Political Tensions in the Middle East Appear to Undercut Saudis' Role
Wall Street Journal 06/09/2011
Wall Street Journal 08/18/2011
The High Cost of Keeping Arab Peace
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