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China's Vanishing Trade Imbalance
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China's current account surplus has declined to 2.8% of GDP for 2011 from about 10% in 2007, and will be around 2.3% of GDP in 2012, according to IMF estimates. The U.S. current account deficit is down to 3.1% of GDP from 5.1%. By controlling the exchange rate China was able to keep the competitiveness of its exports, resulting in a five fold increase in exports from 2000 to 2010, according to the IMF. The decline could be temporary say experts, as the the recession in Europe and the U.S. resulted in slowing exports, with its infrastructure buildup sucking in imports of machinery and other goods from the western countries at an accelerated pace with its 2009 stimulus measures. Another reason is that in the last decade China has developed its own high tech and other companies which will now increase exports. IMF forecasts show a pickup in China's trade surplus to 4.25% by 2017. This could be lower if the renminbi is allowed to appreciate. Estimates of appreciation of the renminbi are 8 percent in nominal terms since June 2010 against the dollar. Including inflation, which is higher in China, the renminbi has appreciated by 13% since June 2010.
China's Trade Balance
03/10/2011
Every $1 increase in oil prices reduces China's trade deficit by $1.9 billion, according to one estimate. China had a trade deficit in February 2011. This reduces the pressures on the yuan. See the IMF forecast on China's shrinking trade surplus in 2011-2014.
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10/14/2009
Peter Morici of the University of Maryland and others express their view in 2009 on what needs to happen. The dollar Morici says needs to be devalued 40-50% against the yuan. He says that while China talks about an alternative reserve currency, it is part of the problem. And the crisis was caused by the U.S. demand that was inflated by the cheap yuan and then collapsed, says Morici.
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Wall Street Journal 10/04/2011
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2012 U.S. presidential candidate Mitt Romney's position on trade with China and the misalignment of its currency
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Wall Street Journal 10/04/2011
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Romney: China must respect the free-trade system - The Washington Post
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China Divides European Union in Fight Over Tariffs
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China Gives Nod to Foreign Firms
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Tallying the Toll of U.S.-China Trade
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New York Times 10/15/2011
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China- German trade and economic relations
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Germany’s Merkel Offers Limited Support for Hong Kong Protesters
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China wage increases and government policy to promote domestic consumption.
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Wage increases of 20% at Hon Hai and upto 100% at Honda factories in China from wages that were kept low for the export market, are now the trend in China. The government policy is shifting to encourage such wage increases to promote domestic consumption and reduce an overreliance on export markets for growth. This is happening just as trade tensions are increasing with the USA.
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Beijing Signals a Shift on Economic Policy
New York Times 05/24/2013
Honda's Long-Haul Dilemma in China
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Interview With Japan Foreign Minister Katsuya Okada
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Yuan's Rise Hurts China's Exporters
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China Will Keep Growing. Just Ask the Soviets.
New York Times 10/24/2014
Adidos and Hotwind? In China, Brands Evoke Foreign Names, Even if They’re Gibberish
New York Times 12/26/2014
The Canton Trade Fair and China's supplier prices 2011-2013
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The Canton Fair: The China price
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Buck Up, America: China Is Getting Too Expensive
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Trade relations between China and India
11/22/2006
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Border Dispute Casts Shadow on Li's India Visit
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Prime Minister Li Keqiang of China Arrives in India for Talks
New York Times 05/19/2013
India and China Play Down Border Tensions
Wall Street Journal 05/21/2013
India, China Agree to Ease Border Fray
Wall Street Journal 10/24/2013
China's President Talks Trade in India as Troops Face Off at Border
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Narendra Modi’s trip to China: Seeking the Nixon spirit
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The U.S., China, and 'Rebalancing' the World Economy
01/07/2010
'Rebalancing' is the idea that China will consumer more US goods and export less to the US, reducing the lopsided trade imbalance between the two countries. China's government continues its focus on exports and infrastructure in 2009-2011. China's banking system focusses on lending to state-owned companies and the system does not have the attitude, incentives or the mechanisms and experience to increase lending to consumers or small business. Experts say rebalancing is doubtful without serious changes in the banking system and government policy which are not likely.
Grouped Articles
Wall Street Journal 07/15/2013
New York Times 12/18/2011
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Free trade agreements in Asia are growing rapidly.
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The FTA's include agreements between South Korea and India and the agreement between China and Taiwan. About 166 signed since 1999, and 62 are in negotiation stage.
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Economist 09/03/2009
Europe and South Korea Sign Trade Pact
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China's Wen Pushes India Trade
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China's Vanishing Trade Imbalance
New York Times 05/01/2012
Progress on the appreciation of China's currency, the yuan, in 2010-2013
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Wall Street Journal 10/04/2011
Europeâs Debt Crisis Is Casting a Shadow Over China
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The Long View of Changes in Chinaâs Currency
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U.S. Strains Mount After China Devalues Yuan
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Global trade issues in 2010.
01/14/2009
The currency issues for the strong yen and the reluctance of China to revalue its currency.
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Wall Street Journal 10/04/2011
Europeâs Debt Crisis Is Casting a Shadow Over China
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When Everybody Exports, Nobody Wins
BusinessWeek 09/16/2010
Wall Street Journal 10/02/2010
Yuan Revaluation for China's Own Sake
Wall Street Journal 10/02/2010
Apple iPhone manufacturing in China, and the U.S. trade deficit
07/01/2010
How much of the iPhone is manufactured in China? 3.6% by China's Hon Hai, but this does not account for South Korean and Japanese suppliers using manufacturing bases in China. German suppliers also have Chinese factories. Production costs at Hon Hai itself are rock bottom, as a result the other parts would be too expensive if not manufactured in China. Reliable statistics would include the value of all suppliers who build i-phone parts in China and take into account the impact on the US of manufacturing jobs that would otherwise be available in the US.
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Andy Grove: How America Can Create Jobs
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Apple Says App Store Sales Rose 50% in 2014
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Apple Services Shut Down in China in Startling About-Face
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01/13/2009
U.S.-China relations. Policy differences and trade relations are expected to exacerbate in 2010. The role of the U.S. as a supplicant to China in 2009 may lead to frustration and stepping back. US-China relations are tense because of continuing trade pressures and large trade deficits as China continues with its export model. Currency issues also an irritant.
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China denounces U.S. trade ruling on steel pipes
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American public opinion on China, jobs and U.S.-China trade.
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After Michigan Loss, Hillary Clinton Sharpens Message on Jobs and Trade
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New York Times 10/15/2011
Wall Street Journal 02/14/2012
China Speeds Economic 'Transformation'
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New York Times 05/01/2012
China Names Its New Foreign Policy Team
New York Times 03/16/2013
Currency issues and U.S.-China trade.
01/23/2009
Trade between the USA and China and currency issues. Obama administration's efforts to address currency issues and fair trade issues with other countries.
Grouped Articles
Wall Street Journal 10/04/2011
Europeâs Debt Crisis Is Casting a Shadow Over China
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US-China trade relations: Speak less softly, carry a stick
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Obama Promotes Benefits of Trade Deals to Workers and Smaller Businesses
New York Times 02/26/2015
Robert Lighthizer and other experts call for trade and globalization practices that work for the U.S.
01/06/2010
The failure of the establishment of both parties in the USA to take action in the face of the loss of 5.6 million jobs in the last decade, with $4.3 trillion in trade imbalances. An issue which resonates with voters in the US and could lead to a fundamental realignent of American attitudes to globalization and free trade. The feeling that the free-trade deck is stacked against the USA by Asian countries. China's efforts to keep the yuan dollar exchange rate at levels that favor exports. China's accumulation of over $3 trillion in dollar reserves that are parked mostly in Treasury's that keep U.S. interests low. Distortons in the global economy from the failure to rebalance the world economy hurts China and the U.S.
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Wall Street Journal 10/04/2011
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New York Times 09/30/2010
Wall Street Journal 10/02/2010
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Trade between China and the European Union
01/22/2011
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New York Times 05/28/2013
Charlemagne: Mr China goes shopping
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Wall Street Journal 06/21/2011
Wall Street Journal 02/14/2012
China Speeds Economic 'Transformation'
Wall Street Journal 03/06/2012
IMF to Shift Its View of China's Trade Surplus
Wall Street Journal 04/11/2012
U.S. and China- Trade Wars.
12/30/2009
American action against products from China that are dumped on the U.S. market. The unervalued Chinese currency and subsidized exports.
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Wall Street Journal 10/04/2011
Economist 03/31/2010
Europeâs Debt Crisis Is Casting a Shadow Over China
New York Times 05/17/2010
How China Lost Its Mojo: One Town's Story
Wall Street Journal 09/16/2013
An Accord (and Lessons) to Remember
Wall Street Journal 09/21/2010
US-China trade relations: Speak less softly, carry a stick
Economist 09/25/2010
China's trade with Poland and other Eastern European countries
06/21/2011
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China Wants More Trade With Central and Eastern Europe
New York Times 04/26/2012
China's Vanishing Trade Imbalance
New York Times 05/01/2012
Europe's Woes Catch Up With Poland
Wall Street Journal 08/09/2012
Mixed Picture for Central Economies
Wall Street Journal 08/15/2012
No Appreciation for the Rising Yuan
Wall Street Journal 06/21/2011
Expert opinion on the appreciation of the yuan.
03/29/2010
One view from Yale University is that an appreciation of China's currency will not have alarge impact on American jobs, which is the opposite of what is generally thought.
Grouped Articles
Wall Street Journal 10/04/2011
Wall Street Journal 03/29/2010
Europeâs Debt Crisis Is Casting a Shadow Over China
New York Times 05/17/2010
The Long View of Changes in Chinaâs Currency
New York Times 09/21/2010
An Accord (and Lessons) to Remember
Wall Street Journal 09/21/2010
China's Dangerous Overvaluation
Wall Street Journal 02/26/2014
Roubini on China, currency issues, and domestic consumption in China.
05/17/2010
By letting the yuan China can shift the benefits to households, who will have more purchasing power, and reverse the shift that has taken place in the last 10 years, with domestic consumption making up about 36% of GDP- down by about 10 points from ten years earlier. State owned companies gained at the expense of households, as did infrastructure spending, but it is leading to misallocation of investments and hurting households. As a result China will hit a growth wall in the next 2-3 years, says Roubini.
Grouped Articles
Wall Street Journal 10/04/2011
Europeâs Debt Crisis Is Casting a Shadow Over China
New York Times 05/17/2010
An Accord (and Lessons) to Remember
Wall Street Journal 09/21/2010
New York Times 09/30/2010
Yuan Revaluation for China's Own Sake
Wall Street Journal 10/02/2010
New York Times 09/25/2010
Divergent interests of U.S. retailers and manufacturers with factories in the U.S. on the appreciation of China's currency
05/17/2010
Grouped Articles
Wall Street Journal 10/04/2011
Europeâs Debt Crisis Is Casting a Shadow Over China
New York Times 05/17/2010
Cheaper Chinese Currency Has Global Impact
Wall Street Journal 08/12/2015
Currency Fight With China Divides U.S. Businesses
New York Times 11/16/2010
Chinaâs Currency Isnât Our Problem
New York Times 01/17/2011
Foxconn to Raise Salaries for Workers by Up to 25%
New York Times 02/18/2012
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