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No Appreciation for the Rising Yuan
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The yuan is up 5.5% since the peg to the dollar ended in 2010, reaching 6.469 to the dollar. But this is not helping the U.S. trade deficit. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows the price of imports from China are up 2.8% in May over the same month prior year. And the trade surplus for China in the first four months of 2011 is higher than the same period in 2010. What is happening? The improvements in productivity of Chinese manufacturers and the acceptance of lower margins is reducing the effects on trade balance of a small appreciation of the yuan, so that only a fraction of that appreciation is showing up in higher prices for Chinese goods. Also significant is that the yuan's small appreciation against the dollar is not enough to make up for the dollar's fall against other currencies. The yuan is down 8.3% against the euro and has actually declined 3.7% on a trade weighted basis in the last year.
China's Trade Balance
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Every $1 increase in oil prices reduces China's trade deficit by $1.9 billion, according to one estimate. China had a trade deficit in February 2011. This reduces the pressures on the yuan. See the IMF forecast on China's shrinking trade surplus in 2011-2014.
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This includes Krugman, recent Nobel Prize winner, Morici, University of Maryland, Hatzius of Goldman and Kasman of JP Morgan. Other experts also welcome the depreciation ogf the dollar as long as it is not a sudden drop. With consumers strapped, quantitiative easing reaching its limits, the stimulus in place, rising unemployment in 2010 and very poor capacity utilization, exports are a sure way to lift the economy. Morici and Krugman see a Chinese disconnect with it siphonig growth away from other countries through keeping its currency low. Morici cites the example of solar panels where China requires 75% domestic content for imports.
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